Good Thursday, everyone. Francine continues to weaken as the remnant low heads closer to our region. This brings spiraling bands of showers and storms across parts of Kentucky over the next few days with another system of interest showing up by early next week.
Let’s kick this off with the latest on Francine from the National Hurricane Center…
With this system only getting into western Tennessee before slowing down, it means we still see one heck of a rainfall gradient showing up across Kentucky. Areas of the north and east may not see much rain at all, if any. Farther west, several inches of rain may fall.
The first bands of showers and storms spin into the south and west late this afternoon and evening. From there, here’s what I’m expecting tonight into Friday…
Again, there’s going to be a sharp gradient from storms to zero rain and that sets up somewhere across the north and east.
As this system continues to weaken across Tennessee, the focus on showers and storms will push a bit to the west…
Since we are dealing with spiraling bands of showers and storms, some hefty totals will likely show up in narrow corridors. Those will be the areas where, at least, local high water issues will be possible.
Additional showers and storms may show up in some of the same areas for Sunday.
The Contril run of the EURO Ensembles are the most generous with rainfall across Kentucky through the weekend…
The GFS Ensembles are a little more reserved…
The EURO Ensembles are a blend of the two models from above…
Before I talk about the next system, here are your radars to follow the rains into Kentucky from the south…
The National Hurricane Center is also watching a newly formed storm well out in the Atlantic and another feature that may try to develop off the coast of the Carolinas later this weekend…
This is the system I talked about yesterday and it may actually bring more rain into the region by early next week. Watch the weather in reverse from Sunday night through Tuesday…
EURO
The pattern looks unsettled for the rest of next week, bringing more rain chances in here.
Make it a great Thursday and take care.
so the actual remnants of the system are in western TN, yet the heaviest rain falls in northwest GA??
Yeah Mark, and I would have expected the numbers in Louisiana and Mississippi to be at least double what is forecasted. In central Warren County, we’re desperate for some precip, since over the past 35 days, I’ve recorded only 0.04 inches of rain. The soil is hard packed and bone dry, so if the rain from Francine comes in the form of heavy downpours, much of that water will end up as runoff, increasing the chances for flash floods. With that in mind, I’m a bit surprised that the NWS hasn’t issued an areal flood watch. Regardless, it would be nice to see some steady rain, but that’s sort of rare in the New Normal!
Mark, the circulation from the remnant low is pulling moisture off the Atlantic, is why there’s more widespread rains in Florida pan handel up to Georgia. Looking at the radar, a narrow ban of showers are to our south. Behind this a dry slot, or what’s left of the eye of tropical depression Francine. It is predicted for my area about a half inch of rain, when all is said and done. I think only a lucky few will receive an inch or more.
NOAA is predicting a weak La Nina for the coming Fall and Winter. With the PDO at a negative 2.88 it may have an active La Nina jet stream well to our north, so maybe we will have some good rain events later this Fall and Winter. I never expect very much Snow with ENSO / La Nina, especially with the PDO in a deep negative.
Here’s the latest drought monitor. My area is now in D1 moderate drought. I notice parts of Southeast Kentucky has no drought. One can varifly this on Chris’s weather cams. Nice and green lawns in Pikeville.
https://www.weatherstreet.com/drought-map-us.htm
outheastern Kentucky has no drought
Even know we may get some moisture from this system, we will need more to get out of this drought. But any rain is beneficial My local weatherman has back off on total rain forecast was saying 1-3 possible ,but now its 1-2 range.
This is the second time this season, a tropical remnant invaded the Tennessee and Mississippi valleys. The remnants of Beryl yelded absolutely zero rainfall in my area. The unusual strenght of the Bermuda High pressure system has moved more west this Summer, pushing all storm tracks well away from central and eastern areas. Such as what West Virginia has experience this season. Only scattered showers throughout the entire region. I will be surprised if we receive the predicted half inch of rain later today.
As I expected, the rainfall forecast for Warren County has been cut in half, to slightly over an inch. Francine didn’t spend as much time over the warm Gulf waters as originally predicted, so it’s carrying less moisture. In addition to the Bermuda High, there’s a strong high centered over Cuba that’s helping to push Fancine farther west. Also, the air over central Kentucky is relatively dry, especially in areas that haven’t had rain for several weeks, so a significant portion of rain in those areas may evaporate before it hits the ground. I agree with Chris that tropical depression 7 has a lot more potential.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G16&band=09&length=24
Interesting Joe, information I really didn’t know, about the high over Cuba keeping storms in the western Gulf. Thanks for the link, which I bookmarked. I think 7 will move into the Atlantic. We shall see in the coming days.
Schroder I agree, TD 7 is about to move into an area of moderate shear, plus a strong north-northeastern flow should cause it veer northward, mid-ocean. Then again, these tropical ladies have a habit of doing the unexpected!
Very little, if any, rain is predicted for the Chicago Metro Area for at least the next week, with temperatures in the 80s.
Very unusual to have such a long streak of 80-degree temps here in September.