Good Sunday, folks. We are putting the wraps on the weekend with showers and storms set to increase as we head into a wet pattern… FINALLY! This pattern also has the chance to pick up some tropical moisture from a developing storm in the Gulf of Mexico.
Today is another warm day with some scattered storms going up. Greater coverage of showers and storms will show up from west to east this evening into night as we get set for a storm system to roll into the Ohio Valley.
This system brings rounds of showers and storms through here later Monday into Tuesday. Some areas may pick up 1″-3″ of rain out of this setup…
There’s also a low-end risk for a few severe storms to show up. Here’s Monday’s Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center…
Here’s the SPC threat area for Tuesday…
Local wind damage and hail would be the main threats if any storm does go severe.
I have no change to my thoughts on the late week and weekend pattern. A slow-moving upper level system likely spins into the Mississippi Valley by Wednesday and produces more showers and storms across our part of the world.
The slow-moving system is going to be key in determining what happens with our likely hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.
The National Hurricane Center is now showing a high chance for development in the coming days…
The models continue to struggle with how to handle this system and that’s understandable from this far away.
The latest GFS is back to taking this system into Florida and then along the east coast…
This is likely an outlier solution that has a really low chance to verify.
The Canadian and European models have also had lots of big swings but the current runs are along my current line of thinking. They show much more interaction with the upper low that allows the tropical rain to come farther north into Kentucky…
EURO
CANADIAN
This is something the GFS had been showing for the prior several runs…
I leave you with all the Sunday storm tracking tools you need…
Have a great day and take care.
On a positive note, the weather pattern of late means I can get up with the dog in the predawn darkness and head outside to starlit skies (no flashlight), warm temps (no jacket), no dew (no shoes) and stand there soaking up the early morning sights/sounds. No need to towel off the dog when we finally come back inside.
Thanks Chris. Yesterday’s model runs showed my area receiving well over 4 inches of rain this coming week. The model this morning was showing only one day next week with only 0.29 inches on Tuesday. What a decrease. Other areas of the state may receive some very good rains, like yesterday in Northeastern Kentucky, and parts of Western Kentucky. Radar this morning is showing widespread rains coming out of Illinois, but they are tracking toward the Northeast, the same areas are receiving, as they have been this past Summer. Around the huge high pressure to the South of the Ohio River. I must report that yesterday evening we had dry lightning in our area, but there are no reports of any fires in my area, but everyday it doesn’t rain, fire danger increases, especially with the dried up foliage that is beginning to accumulate on the forest floor.
I’m not really certain that a tropical cyclone will form in the Gulf of Mexico in the coming days, and move up our way to end the drought. Hoping the European model is correct with the path, if a storm does form a good all day rain maker. Hoping it holds together when the remnants gets to our part of the CONUS.
Have a Peaceful and Bless Sunday Everyone
Happy Fall Equinox to everyone!
Oh~ HAD you not mentioned that, I totally would have forgotten that it was the first day of FALL (it’s here!)