Good Monday and welcome to a busy week of weather leading up to Christmas. I don’t think the pattern can get more active as we have, at least, 3 systems we will be tracking over the next several days. Yes… there is likely a wintry aspect to all this as we head into Christmas weekend. To what extent is the big question.
Our weather in the short term is about to take a walk on the wet side. Clouds will be on the increase today as a major storm gets going across the southwestern states. This storm will bring a blizzard to areas from New Mexico to Kansas.
We’re on the mild side of this bad boy as temps head into the 50s through early Wednesday. Showers will increase this evening across parts of the west and north with rain increasing for everyone Tuesday into Wednesday.
Chilly air then works in later Wednesday and sets the stage for some cold rain for Thursday as our active pattern really kicks into high gear.
We have a deep trough slowly working in from the west and northwest for the end of the week and into the weekend. There are several disturbances diving into the base of this trough and these are hard to time. The first one looks to move in Thursday with light rain. The next comes later Friday into Christmas Eve and will bring rain or snow or a combo of the two as the cold air continues to sink in here.
It’s at this point that EVERY model agrees on a storm developing late this Christmas weekend. We have the usual timing issues… but the track on this storm is very similar on each model and they all have us on the cold side of things with a snow threat.
Here’s a sample of the latest runs…
GFS
GFS Ensembles
Canadian
European Christmas Eve
Here are some thoughts about the models and the setup in general…
– There are so many disturbances on the playing field it’s going to make for model flips as they key on different disturbances at different times. They may try to blow up one of the earlier systems instead of the Christmas one, for instance.
– There is currently model consensus on a Christmas weekend storm and snow threat for our region. That doesn’t mean this won’t change in the coming days… but that’s where the models are right now. What they are showing fits the pattern we have been talking about for several days.
– I am not saying you’re going to have a white Christmas. I am telling you that you DO have a chance at seeing snow over the Christmas weekend.
– One things for sure… the pattern does not look mild and dry like some have promised you for Christmas. 
I will have more updates later today. Have a great Monday and take care.
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In the words of the great Clark Griswold “drum roll please… drum role”.
Merry Christmas week!!!!
Our local weather man now predicts a mix for Christmas Eve, but not enough that could be deemed a White Christmas (1 inch or more), but from the models, it really looks like BG will miss most of the precip entirely 🙁 Hope they are wrong!
I don’t have to have a blizzard to make Christmas nice. I just want weather that FEELS like Christmas weather, not 58 and rainy!
18z last night hates us!..then 00z loves us… then 06z this morning hates us again…Dramamine anyone???
The Weather Channel loves the forecast of almost 50 on Christmas Day with rain on Christmas Eve. Someone isn’t right here.
Chris said he isn’t promising white christmas, (but a chance)….One things for sure… the pattern does not look mild and dry like some have promised you for Christmas.
But I take this sentenec has it could be 35 degrees and rain…TAHT WOULD STINK!!!!!
On the other hand,,HOW BOUT THE BENGALS..
weekend storm look very OLD SCHOOLISH on the track that COULD HIT SE E KY.
if it comes to reality this part of state gets the BULLSEYE.
but as we know the ole westward ytrend is laying in the weeds.
but early week look has a OLD SCHOOL type track, will it be STRONG as a OLD SCHOOL?
my redneck OPINION right now is the weekend storm WILL produce snow, now how much?
white XMAS METER at 35 percent.
wed is D DAY as far as mnodels settling in on late weekend.
The Bengals are not playing well…they should have blown out the Rams. I would make them an underdog against Arizona at this point, even at home.
Well it appears that Hans-rolo thinks at least eastern ky has a shot of old school.
But was does Darth Bubba think?
Will it be above 33 and rainy or below 32 and dry? 😉
Good to know Rolo….keep us informed!! Not getting my hopes up yet but the last storm didn’t jog much to the west from what I saw(unlike many, many other systems that have) so maybe we can hold on to that bullseye….one can hope at least 🙂
The 0z runs of the models are really all over the place. Stay tuned to the 12z runs from all of these models. I’m sure each one will have a different outlook. Hopefully, we’ll stay on the cold side.
However, the GEM’s 0z run, which shows a stripe of mix/ice for the Ohio river and points just north, I think we can do without that for Christmas day.
Yeah, I know he’s not promising snow and yes, 36 and rain would really stink. I’ll be going with whatever Chris has to say for sure.
todays song
I WENT CRAZY FOR AWHILE
by KEN MELLONS
that what watch weather models in the winter will do to ya.
12z GFS is out, and….. What? Check THAT out.
Well, maybe so, but they have been in everygame this year except the 2nd pittsburg game…Their only problems are cant score in redzone and Penalties..
They will take the last two games..I just hope the fans come to see them at home!!!!!! And I would love to see it snowing this sat. at the game!!!
Check WHAT? Tell us….please!!!
Yes please share WXman!
Please post a link to this. 🙂
It goes east of Ky. But that’s just one GFS run, one week away.
You will here this a lot from Darth this winter for systems- especially central KY:
33 and warmer, mainly wet and 32 and colder, mainly dry.
Man, the GFS had a good lunch. Hopefully it wont be out to dinner too at the 18z run
Our local DUDETTE in Lexington area said DRY GREEN Christmas in her forcast last night……maybe she needs to start reading Chris’s blog for her forcast haha, see Chris we NEED YOU BACK!!!!!! Comments like that is when people get caught off guard by the weather 🙁
You know, it simply amazes me that any model solution that does not have a storm or no snow can be simply labeled as “out to lunch.”
That todd guy on lexington news just now just a snow flake.
too warm to snow, soooorrrryyyyy
better not put up those summer clothes yet, looks like we will have some nice days ahead of us.
Merry Christmas to all and to all a warm night ….. hahahahahaha
Well, given that it has shown some consistency, it may be out to lunch. I just don’t think it will be suppressed as much as the 12z GFS shows, I may be wrong though.
At this point we’d take even flurries, so at least there is still hope.
I agree, flurries/snowshowers and dark cloudy/cold Christmas day!! beats sunny/warm or warm/rain…yuck..
LOL…MJ , at this point I believe the SNOWMISER AND HIS WINTER HOUNDS are out to lunch…LOL….
The Canadian joins the GFS with the storm going south and out to sea.
NOT SO FAST MY EVIL TWIN BROTHER!!!…HUHA HA HA HA!!!!!!!…I’ve got the snowhounds rounded up, and I’m loading the artic sled now!! albeit, it may take me a few weeks to get there, but take note!!
as ARNOLD SAYS: I’LL BE BACK !!!!!!!
Last night, Kari, said, dry and GREEN haha for Christmas guess we will have to wait and see what Santa brings haha
Wait a few days. All the models are out to lunch including the snowy ones. Breaking down every detail at this point on each model run is a waste of time.
Praying for a miraculous White Christmas. 🙂
Cold weather = no snow/precipitation
Warm weather = rain
This has gotten off to a crazy start. I’m as confused as the weather models.
Who in their right mind would like a “dark cloudy/cold” Christmas Day over a “sunny/warm” Christmas Day? I would enjoy a white Christmas but people are getting desperate here asking for flurries. Doesn’t bother me I will be spending Christmas in Tahoe, so I will see some snow either way.
Ya know, I’d take flurries as well. The new 12Z Euro has a light mix in here for Christmas day still. Though surface temps never go below freezing and 850 temps are still rather marginal at -4 to -6. I’d prefer to see some colder air aloft to get more snow than a mix.
We have usually missed several days of school up to this point. We might get out in May if this keeps up…LOL
This from NOAA regarding winter 2011/12 ……….
Majority of the models predict a weak or moderate strength La Niña to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter and then gradually weaken after peaking during the December – January period. The models are roughly split between those that predict La Niña to remain weak (3-month average in the Niño-3.4 region between -0.5 and -0.9oC) and those that predict a stronger episode. Over the last half-century, La Niña events that were preceded by ENSO-neutral conditions during the Northern Hemisphere summer (May-August) were less likely to attain strong amplitude (stronger than –1.5oC) the following winter. This observation, in combination with the model forecasts, favors a weak-to-moderate strength La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere winter, likely weakening with the onset of northern spring.
During December 2011 – February 2012, there is an increased chance of above-average temperatures across the south-central and southeastern U.S. below-average temperatures over the western and north-central U.S. Also, above-average precipitation is favored across the northern tier of states, excluding New England, and drier-than-average conditions are more likely across the southern tier of the U.S.
More rain. Texas and OK gets a blizzard and we get more rain. Ma nature is being selfish again.
How cant the other Weather network see Snow on Models like Chris does.
To me, it just feels more like Christmas if flakes are falling. The weather we’ve had so far has done nothing to make me feel like it’s the holiday season.
It’s time to start praying and interceding for March, folks. It can happen. Maybe a much weaker La Nina will help things out by then??
vanessa other channels are in the NOW and are not going go on TV and talk about what COULD HAPPEN 6 days out.
now JEFF CORNISH ABC 36 only ky guy to go on air and mention models this morning saying something we have to watch. really dont know who ur watching but forcast for much of ky is 40s this weekend with light rain/mix possible.
no weather guy going predict anything until the model are set in stone and in winter that bout 48 hours or so out anymore.
trust me all weather folk see the potenial this weekend, but as of now the forcast is as most are saying un EVENTFUL.
hence the word SNOW THREAT or as i say chance.
as far as how it looks, not seeig majior out this right now, not enough PHASING going happen for KY to get much, BUT tomm at this time it could change. like ive said WED evening models get handle on things.
There is NO doubt–you are the most professional, accurate, and coolest weatherman out there. Thanks for all your up to the minute forecasts!
Tell me about it!!
Snow on Christmas?
So you’re telling me there’s a chance!
–Jim Carey (Dumb and Dumber)
as i posted the ole WESTERN TREND will rear its head good mostly bad rest of winter. BAILEY refering to this as far ass THURSDAY system wetter and faster and more west.
as BAILEY posted on twitt, WESTWARD TREND with THURSDAY system and WETTER, so the weekend storm will do same, now im not greedy if ohio river can get snow that great.
we need PHASING!!!!
i said i thought it be a APPS RUNNER early on and it may indeed end up that way, but if we get no PHASING there nothing to talk bout.
Rolo what does this mean.