Good Friday, everyone. Today is a wild day across Kentucky as what’s left of once powerful Hurricane Helene rolls into the Commonwealth. This brings high winds and the potential for flooding and flash flooding that lasts into the weekend.

Let’s get straight to the latest on Helene from the National Hurricane Center…

cone graphic

This is one of the fastest moving tropical systems that you will ever see. It made landfall around 11pm last night near the big bend area of Florida and the center of circulation works into Kentucky by early this afternoon. That’s around 500 miles in a little more than 12 hours, but that’s what happens with an upper low essentially slinging this system around it before merging with it later today.

Before we get to the models, let me give you a fresh breakdown:

TODAY

  • Helene moves into southern Kentucky by early this afternoon and is likely to still be a Tropical Depression. There’s a chance it’s still classified as a Tropical Storm.
  • Widespread high winds will be noted across the state with the core of the highest winds showing up just north and east of the track of the low.
  • The area from southeastern Kentucky through the Lexington metro and north is likely to feel the core of the winds. 50-60mph gusts show up with the potential for 60mph+ at times.
  • The rest of the state should see gusts of 40mph+.
  • Waves of wind-driven heavy rain spin across the state, likely causing high water issues.
  • A general 2″-4″ of rain show through early evening. This will lead to flash flooding concerns.
  • Areas of eastern and southeastern Kentucky will see lower totals than your neighbors to the west and you folks may see some late day sun.
  • There is still the lowest chance for one of these bands to spin up something today.

TONIGHT

  • The center of Helene spins slowly across western Kentucky. This will likely be nearly stationary.
  • Winds continue to come down with gusts of 30mph-40mph possible.
  • Heavy rain bands spin across western and central Kentucky with only a few showers in the east.
  • Flooding concerns continue for the west and central parts of the state, especially.

SATURDAY

  • The center continues to spin in nearly the same areas of western Kentucky.
  • Winds are gusting to 30mph from time to time.
  • Heavy rain bands continue to show up for much of the state.
  • Another 1″-3″ of rain will be possible across central and western Kentucky. This is where more flooding will be possible.

SUNDAY

  • Our low continues to slowly weaken as it moves a bit farther east.
  • Rains won’t be as heavy, but some pretty good showers will still show up.

Let’s start things out with what I’m currently expecting with the flood threat. Areas of central, northern and western Kentucky have the Greatest Risk for flooding with rainfall totals through Saturday in the 3″-6″ range with locally higher amounts…

Again, this isn’t just what falls today, but also includes the spiraling bands tonight and into Saturday. The Future Radar from the Hi Res NAM starts at 8pm this evening and goes through Saturday night…

The models are all forecasting some very hefty rain totals across our region…

 

 

I’m still worried these models are on the low side, especially across central and western Kentucky.

Here’s the current Flash Flood Risk outlook from NOAA…

[Image of WPC Flash Flooding/Excessive Rainfall Outlook]

The models really aren’t blinking on the potential for significant winds that are greater than what I’m currently thinking.

Gusts of 70mph for Friday show up on the Hi Res NAM, NAM and GFS…

 

 

Today is a significant event, folks. Please stay weather aware and take all necessary precautions to stay safe.

I will be on WKYT for much of the day, likely starting around Noon or so. I’ll also drop by for another update this evening.

As always, I have you guys all set to track today’s high winds and heavy rains…

Stay safe and take care.