Good Saturday and welcome to the last weekend of October. Temps have come down and we are feeling a typical late October chill over the next few days. The pattern looks to get more active as we close out October and begin November in the week ahead.
Our day starts with some clouds and even a few leftover showers across the south and southeast. Those should move away fairly quickly and you can track them out of the state with our Kentucky Weather radars…
Highs today are in the 60s as winds gust up from the north. That ushers in even chillier air for Sunday with upper 50s and low 60s for highs.
Temps start to climb again late Monday with the 70s back in here for Tuesday and Wednesday as the flow comes at us from the southwest. That’s ahead of a cold front rolling in for Halloween. I’ve honestly been tracking this particular cold front for more than a week now and it’s amazing how consistent the signal has been.
The EURO brings this front in with some gusty showers for Halloween. That front will then be followed by a pattern where a boundary slows down across our region, bringing additional shower and some thunderstorms in for the first weekend of November.
The EURO shows what I’m talking about…
This run of the EURO shows some hefty rain totals from Halloween through next Sunday night…
The AI version of the EURO has a similar overall evolution…
That pattern looks to try to send a deepening trough into the east with more ridging out west. This signal has been showing up more and more on recent runs of the EURO Weeklies…
This also shows up on the AI…
Make it a great day and take care.
We’ll see.
Thanks Chris. Looking at the radar just now it has a line of showers that may bring a few areas of the state some very very light precipitation. I’ve been noticing since last year that when a line of precipitation moves south of the Ohio River it falls apart. Strong high pressure with it sinking air causes this to occur. My thoughts are that this will continue until we see signs of change in the Pacific and Atlantic oscillations. These oscillations are Decadal, so it may be years or even decades before the Pacific becomes positive and the Atlantic negative.
Enjoy the Weekend Everyone !
The following is NOAA’S long – range forecast for ( N D J ) That large brown area is a huge high pressure dome for all areas in the southwest, midwest and east. Doesn’t look very wet to me, but at this time this is all I have to go on. As with all weather maps subject to change. Here’s the link :
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1
It’s been 27 days since we have had any rain in central Warren County, and over the past 60 days we’ve had just one day with measurable rain. That system dropped 4.30 inches of rain, but much of that ran off because it came in the form of intense showers on dry, hard packed soil. Humidity levels remain low, so it’s likely that those showers across the south will evaporate.
Much of the country is stuck in this pattern; I saw yesterday that a large section of NJ where I grew up was under a Red Flag Warning for the first time, ever!
It is bizarre to me how dry this year has been overall in our region & it makes me wonder what is causing it. I guess it’s happened before but I dont ever remember ot being this severe or us going so many days in-between having any actual rainfall at all. I dont like it ☹️
It’s caused by a positive AMO.
That’s very unusual Joe for New Jersey to have a Red Flag Warning. My Father and I visited New Jersey Nurseries many times back in the early 1970’s when we were in the Nursery / Garden Center Business. My favorite Nursery was Well’s Nursery in Red Bank, New Jersey. They grew many Azaleas and Rhododendrons. My favorite plants.
I’ll say it again, the weather pattern won’t change until the PDO goes to positive ( El Nino ) and the AMO to negative. We will have Winter weather with La Nina, but there won’t be any holding power in the negative for the AO and the NAO like we had back in the years 1976 to 1978.