Good Tuesday and Happy Election Day. We have a super warm and super windy day out there as we get set for showers and storms to crash in. This action will bring heavy rains to parts of the region over the next few days, with another big system targeting us by the weekend.
This is a very busy pattern that is just getting started.
Highs today reach the upper 70s to low 80s for some areas in what will be one of the warmest early November days you will ever find around these parts. Winds will crank and may gust to 40mph from time to time.
Showers and storms then roll into western Kentucky this afternoon and evening as a cold front works slowly eastward. This boundary slides through and slows down into Wednesday and Thursday, leading to a corridor of heavy rains.
The best chance of seeing heavy rain is across areas of western, central and northern parts of Kentucky with a sharp cutoff on the southeastern side.
Here’s the early look at what I’m anticipating for rain amounts through Thursday…
The GFS has been seeing this for some time now and other models are finally joining in on the wet weather party…
Tropical Storm Rafael is expected to become Hurricane Rafael as it heads toward Cuba over the next few days. From there, this gets into the Gulf of Mexico and may weaken some as it heads toward the central Gulf Coast states.
Here’s the latest information and track forecast from the National Hurricane Center…
Can Rafael or some moisture from Rafael get absorbed into a massive storm system rolling from the southern Plains into our region this weekend? That’s certainly a possibility and something the GFS has been showing for a while now. That should be followed up by another big system arriving a few days later…
The Canadian Model doesn’t go out as far as the GFS but it’s looking a lot like it with the weekend system and Rafael, and the system coming behind it…
We will be on flake watch starting around mid-month.
I warned you that we were going into a very active pattern and this looks to continue through the rest of the month and likely into early December. The EURO Weeklies Control is showing a huge amount of precipitation through mid-December…
The average of the roughly 100 member EURO Weeklies is also active looking…
This pattern continues to feature huge ridges and slow-moving upper lows. That can get you in some trouble with both the potential for severe weather and the potential, eventually, for winter weather.
I leave you with your Election Day storm tracking toys…
Have a great Tuesday and take care.
The good news is most voting Kentuckians won’t be getting wet while standing in long lines which are snaking out into parking lots and down sidewalks.
Thanks Chris. On the latest run, shows Tropical Storm Rafael after it’s encounter with Cuba, and intering the Gulf, and then moving west into Old Mexico. We shall see. Rains remain just to our west, and it seems to me that the high pressure to our east is blocking and weakening the system. It’s just like last weeks system. Never seen it this warm in early November in my 73 years.
My Brother and I voted very early this Morning, to avoid the crowd.
Have a Great and Safe Day Everyone !