Good Monday, everyone. Our latest heavy rain maker is working out of the state early today with the next system waiting in the wings. This looks to blow into town later Wednesday and Thursday. Beyond that, a huge system looks to shake up the pattern in a big way next week.
Let’s start out by saying a BIG thank you to all our veterans out there today!
As expected, the weekend system brought heavy rain to western, northern and parts of central Kentucky with lighter amounts in the east and southeast. Some areas of western Kentucky picked up nearly 5″ of rain, causing flooding issues in a few spots.
Leftover showers are out there to start the day across southeastern Kentucky. Here are your tracking tools to follow this action out of town…
Skies quickly clear from northwest to southeast with highs in the 60s today.
Colder winds blow later tonight into Tuesday as temps turn seasonable for a day. Lows are in the 30s with highs in the 50s…
Winds gust up as clouds thicken on Wednesday. that’s ahead of a cold front sweeping in from the west. This boundary likely has a wave of low pretty along it which should enhance the rainfall…
Normal temps return behind this later Thursday into Friday with highs in the 50s.
The next system then sweeps through here with more showers Sunday into Monday with a much more potent storm system possibly lurking for the middle of next week. The evolution is a work in progress and that will continue to be through the rest of the week.
As of now, a monster storm system crosses the Plains with snow behind it and the threat for severe weather ahead of it. This should unlock a much more winter looking setup for the second half of next week.
The Canadian shows our system and you can clearly see the winter crashing in from the west…
The various ensembles have been highlighting this same week for a fairly significant pattern change and this trend continues. This is a pretty good look from the GFS Ensembles with troughs advancing across the country and deepening in the east…
That’s a pattern that can produce some winter weather in our region. The GFS Ensembles are seeing the flake potential in that week before Thanksgiving…
The EURO Weeklies did an excellent job in picking up on this warmer than normal period we are in and they did it from weeks ago. The trend on the same EURO Weeklies is to bring in a much more normal temperature pattern. Here’s the average temp departures for the 30 day period ending on Christmas Day…
With a more normal pattern, the EURO Weeklies are also seeing snow chances. Here’s the average snowfall through the same period…
The single run of the EURO weeklies has much more snow and a colder than normal pattern…
It’s also interesting to note that the Canadian Weeklies are seeing this more normal temperature pattern. They only go through December 15th but look similar to the EURO Weeklies…
Have a magnificent Monday and take care.
Well this last rain at my house was a total disaster in terms of rain totals… Only .25 inch…better than nothing tho… At least we’re out of this funk with the same weather day after day.
The system spread .69” of rain at our house over Saturday evening and Sunday. Perfect pattern for avoiding runoff and getting it into the ground. We had just rehabbed and set up a sixth birdbath a neighbor was discarding. Birds have been borderline desperate at times this fall.
We ended up with 0.60 inches of very welcome rain, and this time it didn’t all fall at once, which gave it a chance to soak in. I’m originally from New Jersey, and I spoke with a friend this weekend, who said that they’ve been under a drought emergency for a big part of the Summer and most of the Fall. As of today, his area has been without for 48 days straight, and at least 10 major brush fires are burning out of control in the NJ, NY and PA region, something I never remembering seeing or hearing about as a kid!
Thanks Chris. Sorry to here that Joe. The overall climate has really has changed since we were Children. I too spoke to a long time fishing buddy, who now lives in Southeast Colorado. He reported that they have over 3 feet of Snow on the ground. I believe that ENSO / La Nina is beginning to get better organized for this coming Winter season. Winter weather, major Snows will most likely stay out in Pacific Northwest, the Rocky Mountain states, and along our northern border into Canada.
Those Snow maps clearly show where the La Nina jet stream is setting up for the coming Winter. Unfortunately, for Snow Lovers ( and I’m one of many here on Chris’s Blog ) Kentucky will be on the very mild side of the jet stream most of the Winter. Maybe the Winter’s in the future will feature more El Nino Winter’s operating in a positive Pacific and a negative Atlantic. But I don’t think this will occur for a long long time.
The Tropics look to be really slowing down in storm formation. That’s great news ! Oh, I forgot to mention that we were left out of the soaking rains yesterday agin. The forecast for precipitation in my area these past several years has been very inaccurate, sorry to say.
A Special Thanks to All to Veterans. Have a Great Day Everyone !
It’s pretty clear that one factor influencing the absence of cold weather in the central and eastern US is continued activity in the tropics, and based on the fact that the NHC is monitoring ANOTHER area for potential development in the southern Gulf, that pattern will continue. Late year tropical activity in the Gulf and western Caribbean is a hallmark of a medium to strong La Nina, but the CPC continues to forecast a weak event. This is more evidence that our warming climate is invalidating certain combinations of factors that, when taken together, are used to forecast or indicate the presence of an El Nino, La Nino or ENSO Neutral with a reasonable degree of accuracy.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php
I agree entirely Joe, also the Atlantic multidecadal Oscillation has been positive for years, which would also add more power to La Nina and the Tropical Atlantic storm formation. I’t going to be difficult forecasting for the models if they haven’t factor in the PDO and the AMO as one of their forecasting tools. I really believe that NOAA’s forecast for ( D J F ) will be correct. The PDO is at a record negative 3.81 for October, which would spell a very Mild Winter for the eastern CONUS.