It’s Time for Two-A-Days

Good evening, folks. It’s that time of the year again… Time for me to start posting twice a day, at least. The pattern remains very active with a wild look to things showing up next week and, potentially, into Thanksgiving week.

In the short term, I have no changes on the heavy rain rolling in later Wednesday through Thursday…

This is a WIDESPREAD 1″-3″ rainfall that should encompass most of Kentucky. The forecast models are growing more emphatic with the rain numbers as we get closer…

November has wasted no time in making up for the lack of rainfall we had in October and it’s also a signal on a much broader pattern change across the country.

One thing that’s still the same, though, is a very active tropics. Sara is likely to develop soon in the Caribbean…

That system will then work into the Gulf of Mexico next week and will likely be a hurricane. This may very well become a landfalling system with Florida the most likely destination.

As that system is churning through the Gulf of Mexico, MAJOR blocking goes up from Greenland to Alaska. That will send a massive, slow-moving upper level system from the Plains into the eastern half of the country. That has a chance to pick up Sara if it forms as forecast.

The whole blocking pattern then looks to continue into Thanksgiving week, possibly making for some cold turkey.

This is a good time for an upgrade to the EUROPEAN Model as it’s run time now goes out to 15 days instead of stopping at 10. Woot!!

The brand spanking new run of the EURO goes through the Wednesday before Thanksgiving and gives us a great look at everything I just talked about. Here’s a look at the upper levels…