Good Wednesday to one and all. Another heavy rain maker is rolling into Kentucky today and will take us through Thursday. This is part of the active setup that’s slowly changing the pattern to look more like a winter one over the next few weeks.

Let’s kick things off with today’s system before we look at the wild pattern ahead.

Rain a few storms move into western Kentucky early today and that rolls to the east as a storm system moves from the Plains toward the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. A general 1″-3″ of rain looks likely for much of the state through tomorrow. The models all agree on this…

Here are your tracking tools for the day…

Showers will likely linger into much of Friday across central and eastern Kentucky. Temps look fairly chilly on a northwest flow behind the departing system.

The weather for the weekend looks pretty good to get out there and put up some Christmas lights, so get after it!

The setup next week looks pretty wild with a likely tropical storm or hurricane down in the Gulf of Mexico. The soon to be named Sara is forming down in the Caribbean…

This may very well impact Florida and could be one of the latest landfalling hurricanes on record for the United States. Hurricane Kate is the latest ever as it hit Florida November 22, 1985.

As this is happening, a monster block develops from Greenland to Alaska with a HUGE upper level system working slowly underneath it across the central and eastern part of the country. That block likely holds tough into Thanksgiving week with additional troughs sweeping underneath.

The GFS height anomalies gives us a good look at the potential from early next week through Thanksgiving Day…

That setup may very well mean, at least, some flakes flying around here at some point or another. The models will have different details from run to run, but we are still seeing the winter trends showing up.

Here’s the latest surface animation from the GFS…

The EURO has a similar thought process…

The AI version of the EURO has a definite winter look developing. While it doesn’t show precipitation type, one can infer from those 850mb temp that some of this would be in flake form…

The various Ensembles have been showing a winter look developing for some time now and they continue to do so. The average snowfall numbers of the Ensembles look like this…

 

 

Again, all we can take away from this is that there’s an increasing chance for SOME winter weather before Thanksgiving. Just give me a few flakes and I’ll be happy. Anything else for this early in the season is a bonus.

I’ll have another update coming your way later today, so check back.

Have a wonderful Wednesday and take care.