Good Tuesday everyone and thanks for dropping by our little slice of weather heaven. The weather pattern appears to FINALLY be undergoing significant changes and it may be just in time for Christmas and the holidays.
Before we try to turn the winter corner… we have some mild and wet weather ahead of us this week. What else is new there? 
Our short term outlook calls for a mix of sun and clouds out there today with temps into the upper 40s and low 50s for highs. There could be a scattered shower or two… especially across the west.
A warm front swings across the region tonight and early Wednesday. This should touch off a few showers as it quickly heads to the north. A flood of mild air will work in during the afternoon with temps heading into the low 60s for some. Winds are going to kick up as well.
Rain will increase on Thursday as a storm rolls into the Great Lakes and drags a cold front through here. Highs will spend on last day in the 50s before much colder air swings in by Friday. It’s at this point many of the models have been saying the cold front puts the brakes on allowing for a wave of low pressure to work northeastward along it.
The GFS Ensembles have been very adamant in showing this…
That would certainly imply a cold rain on Friday with a mix of some rain and snow by Saturday. The GFS has now joined in the wave camp…
There is another line of thought that would have that front be a tad farther south allowing for the wave to pass us by with a minimal impact. Regardless… temps from Friday into the weekend will be chilly with upper 30s and low 40s for highs.
The big cutoff low across the southwestern states looks like it wants to eject out into early next week. The latest runs of the European and Canadian models took this system on a path that would allow for a storm to develop and roll across the Tennessee Valley with a swath of wintry to the north and rain along and to the south.
The GFS Ensembles are giving that scenario boost…
It will be interesting to watch and see how this plays out. Again… those big closed lows have a mind of their own and really give the models fits.
We’re less than two weeks until Christmas and EVERYONE wants to know if it will be white. It’s still too early to say… but the pattern appears to be more favorable to produce some snow by the time Christmas weekend arrives.
Those same GFS Ensembles…
So, you’re telling me there’s a chance?
Smile people… it’s only weather.
Have a great Day and check back for updates. Take care.
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“I wish me a snowy Christmas, I wish me a snowy Christmas and a happy white new year”
haha yes there is a chance 🙂
Around here it is fun to at least have a Chance of snow at Christmas. I will be leaving town, going south no doubt. I am sure Ky will be hit with a major storm while I ams gone. Just like this summer when the four tornadoes hit Lou. I was in Bullit County. Have a good day as it is going ot be a nice day to and there is work to be done.
If those are the provocators of our weather: please leave now and do not return until April 1st! And have a great trip!!
Yeah, still looks like the SE ridge finally breaks down a little around Christmas, which will open the door for snow possibilities finally.
tx WM.
still se upper 30s low 40s XMAS weekend. but if we get a storm then all bets are off.
I heard that the trained eye can look at the horses’ coats and tell what kind of Winter is coming. True?
Thanks, Chris! Look like we are going to need the waders again. Maybe we will get a Christmas present from Mother Nature! Hope springs eternal. 😉
the other night on TV old Winter Warlock just didn’t have it in him anymore …. so looks like i’ll be around for a while. hahaha
Should I bite and get tickets to the Arizona Game on 12-24. If we can win on sunday agaist the Rams , win at home against arizona, then beat Ravens on the last game, then hopefully we can be a Wildcard playoffs!! So, I’m thinking I should wait after sundays game then I think I will buy some tickets…Snow, lets wait after this weekend and then see if were are looking for some cold snowy week before Christmas…I think the Bengals have a better chance than the snow!
yes that a fact, usually in FLA now their coats are cut and shinning.
in north sday in NYC they have a winter coatmost time by now but alot are still in spring summer mode and that tells u not a bad winter at all is coming.
Why hello, 12z GFS! You’re lookin’ mighty sexy starting at hour 189!
Check out 264(Christmas eve) and 372. Some snow lovers eye candy. Still too many days away. Can hope though.
The turning point is only 1-2 days from crossing from voodoo land into legit short-term medium range territory. By the weekend, we’ll see if the GFS wants to do its classic flipping and flopping, but I’m just happy for hope, like you’ve said, James! 😀
Snow on/before Christmas would be great!! Someone needs to smack old man winter on the butt and wake him up!!!
Awesome. So they are sort of like giant wooly worms. lol.
Ouch…12z runs of the GFS, GEM, and ECMWF show a solution that favors liquid precip for the early next week time frame.
Yesterday, the GEM and ECMWF showed a possible colder solution. The trend has been warmer over the past few runs.
Suprising? 😉
has to be said local mets never mention the drizzle light rain that been going on all day yesterday another blow forcast for the local met.
XMAS weekend upper 30 low 40 with cold rain best i see.
just as henry marg said in his blog, it interesting read that layout why yes snow showere poosible XMAS but set is for not snow a paoand stuff just not going work out.
worst winnter westher this season be ice storm for lex north possible with rain south. maybe we get a suprise but m,ore likely 2-3 inch at times with upslope in JANUARY.
ass BUBBA G says 32 below dry 32 abocve WET.
without any disrespect toward chris bailey, i do not think any one out there really knows how the winter is going to turn out to be for sure. right now every one is pretty well guessing and going with analog years but as chris pointed out a few days ago, all of his analog years have not panned out 11 days into meteorological winter. joe bastardi did go out on a limb and said the last 10 days of the month would feature a trough in the east, but he has also went on record by saying that this winter would not be as cold as winter the past 2 years have been. so there u have it in a nut shell, i don’t think any one really knows for sure what we are going to have more than 2 weeks down the road. we all will play the waiting game, so to speak. that is my 2 cents worth 12 days before christmas.
So whats that mean for Tuesday of next week, please?! Thanks CB
Many (including myself) were sort of predicting this Winter to follow the same general format as last year, with the presence of a La Nina event ongoing. October and November largely DID follow a trend like last year. December thus far has been 180 degrees opposite. Last year we stayed below freezing almost the entire month. We got over 10″ of snow. It was brutal. This year the SE ridge is holding strong and our temps. are staying up. I do NOT believe this will be the rule for the entire season. I believe it’s simply delayed. January could still easily throw down on us HARD. IF.. if it were to stay mild all winter with the jet bisecting the nation like this, then Katie bar the door! Because tornadoes will rip this place up in April.
Am I the only one who must live in a bubble? I have been in KY for 7 years and have never seen more than five inches of snow at any one time and have never had a winter with more than 12 inches of snow, total. I live just south of Lexington.