Good Monday evening everyone. I wanted to drop by for a very quick update on the setup as we go into the days leading up to Christmas. Some of the models are trying to key in on a storm threat around Tuesday of next week.
The Canadian and European Models look very similar for next Tuesday…
Canadian
European
The theme of those models is a low tracking into the Tennessee Valley with a lot of winter on it’s northern flank. Not saying they are right… but it’s good to see some agreement on the models.
It’s all about what happens with that big cutoff low across the southwest. That will dictate where the storm goes and just how strong it will be.
I have no changes to my thoughts between now and then. Isolated showers through Wednesday with a soaking rain on Thursday ahead of a cold front. That front puts the brakes on with some overrunning rain for Friday as colder air moves in. This MAY set us up with some rain and snow for Saturday.
Full update coming your way tonight. Have a great evening and take care.
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Next week ain’t gonna happen folks. I am thoroughly convinced our conditions are directly affected by the NAO about 90% and no indications it’s going to reverse from current record positive strength.
What I would like to know is where is this u”interesting” Winter that was forecasted here in September and eluded to start in November.
I really understand the weather here is hard to predict even 5 days out however when you bust you should bite the bullet and say so.
Oh Steve…who pooped in your cherrios?? Get a grip and get over it! It’s amazing how negative some people can be. Go make your own blog and see if you can do any better 😉
Chris, looking forward to watching the model trends for next week. If nothing evolves, I’m sure January and February will make up for it. One BIG thing I’ve learned from you is that weather always balances itself out. So if most of December is pretty quiet, better chances are for some action coming during Jan-Mar. sometime.
Thanks for all you do. It is GREATLY appreciated by so many people. Can’t wait for the post later tonight!
Lighten up Steve. Chris is giving us the best he’s got. If it’s not good enough, then there are other weather blogs for sure that may be more to your liking. We need to be supportive not critical; it makes for a happier world 🙂
May not have had “winter” but I thought it nice to at least see some flakes in October. And in spite of the warm days with these storms whe have had plenty of cold as well. Not to mention the few flakes that happened not that long back.
Anyway, we may have missed those storms but we were close. And there was never a guarantee just plenty of “it may” or “is possible” from what I have read. Here, it seemed like the cold air arrived just an hour of so late with the last event as all we had was a few flakes for about 15-20 minutes.
Haters gonna hate lol….thinking snowy thoughts 🙂
People, it is just a prognostication. If Chris knew he was going to be a 100% correct, he would be in Vegas living the life of a bookie.
Some people on here amaze me. They believe that a KY winter should be as cold as Fairbanks, and snowier than Buffalo. If you are wanting this type of winter, than I suggest you move to an area that has a climate more conducive to those conditions. KY will never be a winter wonderland from DEC-March, but we should enjoy the small times in which we do have winter weather. Chris keep up the good work.
Some people act like its suppose to snow every day begining Dec 1st…News Flash Steve and others,ain’t gonna happen…Honestly don’t see why some people with all there negativity even bother to post…If you lived in Ky long enough you should know by now it takes an act of congress,2 ugly trolls,3 witches and a snow creature to even get close for it to snow in ky…Also to some of us its enjoyable just to analyze the models and try to learn what made it snow instead of when it snowed…
I’ll tell you what gives me a good chuckle. We hear all the time about how the GFS model has the “lowest verification scores of any model” and how it’s basically just a garbage model. But I’m sitting here trying to remember the last time the Euro or Canadian models predicted a big snow storm, while the GFS didn’t, and it happened. It’s been a LONG time if at all.
actually not that long ago go back to OCT 29th. the EC was the only model to have a snowstorm in the mid-atlantic and northeast. If you went by the GFS forecast it would have been for sunny skies and 50*F.
Feel free to get your weather elsewhere if you like. Never understand why some people tell me how bad I suck, yet hit this blog dozens of times each day. Stop listening to talk radio and local Mesaage boards that are nothing but hate filled and you will live a much better life!
Can’t wait til the new board weeds out these people who post under different names.
Guess some people feel the need to turn the Derp up to 11 before they can’t post anymore.
We’ve seen plenty enough days with snowfall so far this year (including some early ones in October) and as far as I’ve seen, the only forecast that didn’t really pan out was the one from last week. Even then, many areas got in on snow although some didn’t and most didn’t see accumulations. I’d take Chris going on about snow a week out over the alternative… when he was calling for cold and snow, others were calling for 50s. At least Chris is in the ballpark!
Chris, I agree!! Can’t wait for the new setup where people have to register to comment. I love this blog and have read since WKYT days, as many have. I don’t post often, but I really appreciate everything you do. As for the haters, really, just get over yourselves. It’s very tiresome.
Chris, you’re doing fine. Thank you for providing one of the best weather resources in the region.
Yep, the operational GFS has issues. However, you are much better off utilizing ESRL/PSD’s GFS Reforecast model which is vastly superior and pretty much on par with the current version of the Euro. Its like night and day comparing it to the OP GFS…
Gonna’ have to disagree with you there. I remember watching the GFS sniff out that storm a LONG while before it developed, then lost it in it’s 4-6 day “twilight zone”, then picked it up again. This all happened before the Euro was even out of diapers.
This all started last year. Regardless, me and the rest of the professional blog patrons will continue checking every single day. That I am sure of! Lol but I to can’t wait to have to register.
The euro has been doing better lately. But the experts on this blog,and i say that with the most due respect,are always talking about the euro’s southwest bias. Does this become a major factor in the upcoming forecast.
Kind of no point in ranting about the wimpy snow results for central KY and others, since the weather does not care either way.
It is what it is….I need a fermented beverage.
Hey get off my back I didn’t give anyone a hard time, call anyone a name or even cop a bad post demeanor. I like and appreciate this site and the thoroughness of the Met. I think he’s as good as any in the state short term. However when you bait the hook in September and bust you gotta be ready for a little razzing. Analog years, this that and the other thing in September……A for having the guts to get it wound up in September but a few grades down for bust admission……any met would be questioned about that. It’s a valid post.
Again I like his site his guts and discussion, hell all mets bust, its how they handle it that is a huge piece of how they are viewed.
Thank you in advance for not kicking my butt via posts.
Steve
i remeber this very well!
Hello, I am Chelle, I was Chelle last week, last month, last year, and also Chelle when this blog was started, with OUT all the drama. A lot of us got really close on here, but then came the haters, and it got to where none of the original readers would even comment. Chris, I hope your new blog format changes that. Great friendships have been made, thanks to YOU! As far as the weather, if someone puts 100% faith in a forcast that is 3 FREAKING MONTHS OUT, the deserve what they get. Most of us know 3 months out it is wishful thinking at best. I still have 100% CONFIDENCE in you Chris. If we get a lot of snow, great if not…..maybe next year. I know you don’t control the weather, unlike some people on here. Keep up the AMAZING JOB you do. Most of us REALLY DO APPRECIATE IT! 🙂 Besides, people, please remember winter starts 4 days BEFORE Christmas……not the day after Thanksgiving. 🙂
just keep my hopes up for snow, especially around Christmas, and I will continue to check in several times a day. As for the regulars, thanks for the informative posts and opinions! That’s why I stop by multiple times each day. Chris hits the forecast closer than anyone else I’ve seen, keep up the good work.
Dude,its long range forecasting…Most Mets won’t even attempt giving a long range forecast…This is part of the blog alot of people like…How much fun would it be if chris just told you what its going to do for today…I don’t care even if the models are showing something 384hrs out,it still peaks an interest in us snow lovers…Thats what gives us hope…Why would anyone even question a Met who is gracious enough to give his thoughts on the upcoming winter is beyond me?????
chelle you are so right i used to love to get on here and talk with all you guys then i had to stop because the haters have took it over i really miss the way the blogs was back when chris first started it,chris is the best. i do think we are in for warm weather on christmas this year but that’s ok because i just glad that my family and my wonderful blog family is here to injoy christmas with me,chris you keep up the good work you do for all of us and your faithful bloggers will alway be here with you….
chris i cant wait for the new board maybe we can get our old blog back….
Well I worked this storm and followed each model carefully. Many here at this NWS office would disagree strongly with you.