Good Monday everyone and thanks for checking in on us. It’s a new week that will feature another active weather pattern showing up across our region. Our temps go yo yo for the next week as rain chances increase with the threat of something wintry maybe showing up by the weekend.
Let’s start things out with the precious present. Today features another cold start before some clouds increase as the day goes on. A weak disturbance to our south will throw a little moisture our way and this may kick off a shower or two across the south. Check on regional radar through the day…
Highs today will head into the upper 40s for many with a few low 50s possible.
A plains storm is going to crank up over the next few days. Milder air out ahead of this will spread in from the west for Tuesday and Wednesday with a few showers possible. The low will track into the western Great Lakes and drag a cold front in here on Thursday as our rain becomes widespread.
The GFS Ensembles…
The cold presses in from the northwest on Friday and this will set up a sharp temp gradient from north to south across the country. The rest of the forecast period will be determined by when and where this cutoff low in the southwest comes out…
This thing is driving the models crazy and that’s not a good thing as they have been in Waffle House mode for a while now. The GFS has absolutely NO idea on what to do with that and hasn’t shown the same solution yet. The boys and girls at NCEP have nearly rendered this model useless as it is currently in 4th place in verification scores.
That said… none of the models are very good right now. The GFS Ensembles continue to show the potential for overrunning precipitation Friday into Saturday…
That would imply some cold rain on Friday and a little rain or snow on Saturday. Again… that’s me assuming the model is correct. I will give it one thing… it has, at least, been consistent and does have support from the UKMET, NOGAPS and Canadian.
When does the big upper low come out of the desert southwest and what does it mean for us? That’s something I can’t answer right now as those things have a mind of their own and can meander around for days before really moving. It should develop into a powerhouse storm when it does. Then it would be up to the track as to what it would bring us.
We’re now 11 full days into meteorological winter and the pattern hasn’t been what my analog years showed me. Tennessee stole our snow… twice, but our temps are actually normal to slightly below normal so far. That is telling because we have absolutely ZERO blocking… yet our temps aren’t what you would expect for a pattern with no blocking. There are increasing signs for blocking to FINALLY show up over the next few weeks and into much of January. Let’s sit back and see if it’s real or not.
Have a great Monday and take care.
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What’s the story in Perry County? An eyewitness on the Lex18 morning news said she thought it was a UFO. Cool!! 🙂
Whatever it was, I hope nobody was injured.
This was a great weekend. I sure enjoyed the SUN!! I am in no hurry for snow.
Go ahead… boo me right off the blog. 🙂
Model Wars
Around Dec 20-21 time frame…as of the 00z runs.
ECMWF – southern low slices Kentucky in half, rain to the south/se and a snow/mix to the north/nw.
GEM – southern low a little farther south than ECMWF, with snow, sleet and rain for the state.
GFS – cold front moves on and the low does not impact our region.
They’re all on board for a low tracking along a strong cold front. Something to definitely watch over the coming days.
Chris, I want to say that you do a wonderful job. I can’t imagine trying to make forecasts for all of your readers. Trying to get it right for the entire state is about impossible. There will be spots out there that doesn’t work out. MOST of us are snow lovers and we love seeing and reading your thoughts or we wouldn’t be here. Please keep up the great work and don’t get discouraged because of a few…they do not represent ALL of us.
Happy Birthday to ME! I am 42 today and still love the snow as much now as I did when I was a kid. By saying that I can’t remember it ever snowing on or before my birthday. Winter has not even began and I saw yestereday that this winter is a bust. Can’t wait for the new sight as it should weed out the ones who get on here just ot bash Chris and the others who really love winter weather. Keep up the great work Chris. The cold and snow will soon be here. THINKS SNOW!!!
morning all,
song of day
me and BOBBY MGEE!! by JOPLIN
Im not buying any of the models. The NAO remains positive there’s no blocking the cold air is really no where to be found and the upper lows have been to our west until this changes the eastern half of the nation will see no to very little snow.
Well…..Perhaps then….. we will have little to no show in Dec and seasonal temps and HOPEFULLY there is a flipping of the pattern for jan/feb…..but who knows!??
You know I’m not booing! 🙂 Love, love to see the sun.
December will not see much frozen stuff on the ground at all. Though last winter was wimpy for a lot of us, I think this winter will be less. This week will be rinse and repeat for systems: 33 and higher, mainly rain and 32 and lower, mainly dry.
Suggest getting used to Tennessee stealing our snow this winter, just like last winter and the year before that.
Maybe we will see a big change in January or February, but the teens do not support it.
Meant trends instead of teens.
Gosh I hate Swype.
yes yes yes … my fan base is growing each day ….. thank you all! Watch for me on Wednesday, I will be bright and maybe even hit 65 degrees in some parts.
I like the pattern were in myself..Just makes the possibility of a major snow event more likely..With all the cutoff lows and shortwaves lately eventually we will get a big ridge out west and then a cutoff low will BOMB the state of KY…Stay tuned folks,you’re about to see an OLD TIME Event in the near future..
Good advise from one of my weather colleagues, which may perk up the pessimists out there: “I wouldn’t trust anything you are seeing in the op models (any of them) outside of 3 days right now. There is wicked divergance between the members once you get outside of 84 hours… and the ensemble mean isn’t really helpful either, because its just showing a weak trough across the entire conus, which is unlikely to verify either. I believe this is showing up because there is no consistency between ensemble members, so it averages out to normal across the entire US. I have a feeling that we’ll settle on how the weekend pans out by tomorrow at 12z.”
BengalFan is hurting…I guess we are not ready to be a playoff team this year..But we do have three games to prove it(there is still hope)..This weather is not ready for snow yet, but we still have along way to go. Come on Bengals and snow!!!!
Admittedly, the teleconnectors are winning the battle so far. +NAO has been a pain. However, even confidence values for the NAO outside of 7 days drop off dramatically, but the trend from the ensembles are showing a decisively negative trend although still barely positive.
And the models are horrible…I chose a bad time to work on this project about which medium range model fares best at least 6 days out.
happy B DAY!!
Pessimists, yes, but with a LOT of history and models to support the stance 😉
Thanks rolo!
By mid-January there is the potential for some WICKED cold heading south!
See..now we see GFS going back to it’s original idea of stalling a front nearby this weekend. It’s really just all over the place. But don’t count out this storm yet…it is still a possibility. That pesky ridge just won’t give up though.
Go Titans!!! I like the Bengals and pull for them to beat the Colts, Patriots, Steelers, etc. only time I root against them is if they place the Titans…but just staying true to my home team. Chose some good weeks this season to start Andy Dalton on my fantasy team.
Haha! Times like this when I’m content to now know, thanks to CB, that the GFS only ranks 4th on the verification score depth chart.
Your joking right.?
I saw on some long range models that by mid July we are looking at some real hot temps.
12z ECMWF interesting. It appears that euro run and the canadian are picking up on a clipper coming across the upper midwest to reinforce colder air now next week. However Still the trend is lakes cutters and storm tracks to our west this year. Will need to see a few days of this show up to take the bait. Taken as is the 12z euro cuts a low up west of the apps Next Tuesday then forms a secondary offshore this track usually gives a cold rain for most south of I-64 with snow or a mix in northern KY.
ur wrong again.. you said we are looking at winter setting in the first week of december? snow this weekend? we are suppose to be in the 50s… i no longer look at ur weather now because ur always wrong
If I told you it was going to rain June 21st 2012, would you hold me to it? When someone quotes something two weeks out, you can’t take it for its gOing to happen. Because fact Of the matter is, is this is weather. Weather changes on an hourly basis. We have all seen it snow out of nowhere, rain out of nowhere. Heck we’ve seen tornados and then snow 12 hours later. It’s just unpredictable but Chris and everyone does there best to sort out data. And provide us( the weather community) with there thoughts.
Time to buy a new rain gauge, forgot to empty it after the last rain storm, 14.1 degree low Sat morn, ICE expands. WHITE CHRISTMAS is coming folks 🙂
Christmas Day … sunny and 55deg
Mark it down and watch how accurate it is … sorry no white Christmas this year in KY, maybe Alaska
well couple places including ACCUWEATHER came out ewith WHITE XMAS CHANCES and we are SOL.
rainy XMAS only thig ggoing happen here, and ROLO agrees lookingh like to me uppers 30s low 40s XMAS weekend.
it bee into JAN before anything remotly as far as REAL snow has a chance here and IMO we see a tad above normal JAN as a whole.
BYE! BYE! DAVID….
What Rolo said.