Good Wednesday, everyone. We have a big time arctic front roaring in from the northwest and it’s bringing some brutally cold wind chills for early December. This will also bring gusty winds and a few snow showers and squalls along for the ride.

Here’s an updated breakdown:

  • Temps ahead of this boundary likely hit the 40s this afternoon and evening.
  • Winds are a MAJOR player with gusts topping 40mph at times along and ahead of the front.
  • Showers ahead of the front then switch to some snow showers and squalls behind it. Light accumulations may show up in spots for central and eastern Kentucky.
  • This may very well create a few slick spots as temps plummet.
  • As mentioned, temps absolutely tank behind this front. Readings at midnight may be near 40 then drop into the teens a few hours later.
  • Wind chills Thursday morning will likely reach -5 to 5. Take precautions now.
  • Temps Thursday stay in the low and mid 20s with wind chills in the low teens pretty much all day with singles returning that night.
  • Friday is another very cold day

Let’s start with the rain showers that goes over to a period of snow showers and squalls tonight and early Thursday. The Canadian and Short-Range Canadian Models have been by far and away THE best models in picking up on the light snows in recent weeks. It’s showing the best threat for snow showers and squalls later tonight and early Thursday…

The Hi Res NAM says Eh to the Canadian…

The Canadian was also the first model to suggest wind chills approach 0 or even dip below zero in a few spots and it continues to lead the charge. Watch the crazy wind chill drop from midnight to tomorrow morning…

The HRRR also says Eh…

Wind chills through the rest of the day may not rise above the high single digits and low teens. This animation goes from Thursday morning through 8pm Thursday…

Single digit wind chills will start the day Friday before the cold starts to relax by the afternoon. That’s a trend that carries us into the weekend ahead of what looks like a rain maker rolling in late Sunday and Monday. This comes as low pressure rolls in from the southwest and drags a boundary into the region. This boundary will have cold air coming in behind it and will likely fire off another low pressure along it by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

That is a low we will need to track closely as it may very well wind up as an Appalachian Mountain runner. This is supported by the latest Canadian Model…

That same model has another system developing to our southwest at the end of the run…

As I said, all models are really struggling with next week, none more so than the GFS which isn’t close to being usable at the moment. Things may not work out exactly as this run of the Canadian shows, but it’s giving us an output that matches what the setup can deliver… A two storm system scenario in the first half of next week.

I’ll have updates later today. Until then, let’s track the arctic front in from the north…

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Have a wonderful Wednesday and take care.