Good Saturday everyone. We have a cold weekend in store for the bluegrass state as the coldest air of the young season has made its way into town. The cold air is being accompanied by some very pleasant weather that should help us dry things out for a bit.
Lows this morning will dip into the low 20s for many with afternoon sunshine boosting high temps into the low and middle 30s for many areas.
Current Temps
Morning Lows
Sunday should start even colder with lows hitting the upper teens and low 20s. Another sunny day will see high temps warming toward 40.
The new week starts off with more in the way of sunshine and temps back into the 40s. This may be the last totally dry day we see for a while as the threat of some showers moves in by later Tuesday and Wednesday.
A big plains storm is brewing for the middle and end of next week and should bring more decent rains in here for Thursday and early Friday. This storm is going to try to unlease the beast of cold across Canada and you can see this on the European Model…
There is likely to be some upper energy hanging back across the southwestern U.S. late next week into the following weekend. It will be interesting to watch how and when this comes out as it should develop into a wintry threat for the Ohio Valley at some point.
The latest GFS shows what i’m talking about next weekend…
That’s a good looking setup for wintry weather around here and is something for us to be watching. This has been showing up on the Ensembles for a while now, so it has support. Those same ensembles continue to point toward a cold and stormy period in the week heading up to Christmas.
I will have another update later today. Have a great Saturday and take care.
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Thanks as always, Chris.
I’m intrigued by that area of “Brutal Cold” that is more frigid than the area of “Arctic Cold”.
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I hope that it comes one heck of a winter storm about two- three good times…. And then go right into a very early spring!!!
Chris – I love you man, but when you’re too much of a cheerleader for cold and snow, it reduces credibility and disappoints. It’s been 3 weeks since this energetic, closed- low winter was going to be off to a rock’in start. Now around every corner lurks the big one. One time that will be true, but predicting 10 of the next 1 storms . . .
Again, thank you for all you do – just don’t let hype hurt credibility.
For many days, the GFS model has shown energy diving into a trough next weekend, around the 17th/18th, and it’s been generating a lot of precip. for us. This morning’s run likes to show the cold surface air moving farther south, which would result in Kentucky getting HAMMERED with snow next weekend. I think what interests me is the consistency in the model showing this digging trough. The details aren’t worked out yet, but I feel confident that somebody nearby is about to see full blown Winter. If the 06Z run were to verify, Chris would be happier than a pig in slop.
ROSCO P COLD TRAIN has recorvered from that HERENDOUS CRASH and issetting eyes on KY for XMAS!! he got moonshine in trunk he stole them DANG DUKES, he got colds and snow being guarded by non other than FLASHHHHHHH
I LOVE IT I LOVE IOT!!!
Agree with you one-hundred percent, Sometimes I feel CB hypes up the snow or winter outlook to bait people, to keep up traffic for this page. With that said, thanks for everything CB. Bring on the Warm Temps, dislikes snow.
yeah been keeping an eye on this for several days now. could be a very nice welcome home gift.
So he baits us with BS to keep up traffic? Why wouldn’t he do this with thunderstorm forecast or beautiful weather forecast?
Because most of you people are snow junkies, snow is all most of you think of.
Yell,Yell,Yell! The glorious GFS is predicting a snowstorm for this area a week out. How many times have we seen that come to fruition?
I share your passion Wxman and I hope the Gfs forecast will stay on its current path.
Lets face facts we all been burned by the gfs that cried snow for many past winters. The gfs is a good forecasting model but its accuracy in ky as far as precipitation coming down as snow is dubious at best. On the streets the gfs would be consider nothing more than a “two bit Hustler”.
Yell,Yell,Yell! The glorious GFS is predicting a snowstorm for this area a week out. How many times have we seen that come to fruition?
I share your passion Wxman and I hope the Gfs forecast will stay on its current path.
Lets face facts we all been burned by the gfs that cried snow for many past winters. The gfs is a good forecasting model but its accuracy in ky as far as precipitation coming down as snow is dubious at best. On the streets the gfs would be consider nothing more than a “two bit Hustler”.
Yell,Yell,Yell! The glorious GFS is predicting a snowstorm for this area a week out. How many times have we seen that come to fruition?
I share your passion Wxman and I hope the Gfs forecast will stay on its current path.
Lets face facts we all been burned by the gfs that cried snow for many past winters. The gfs is a good forecasting model but its accuracy in ky as far as precipitation coming down as snow is dubious at best. On the streets the gfs would be consider nothing more than a “two bit Hustler”.
Yell,Yell,Yell! The glorious GFS is predicting a snowstorm for this area a week out. How many times have we seen that come to fruition?
I share your passion Wxman and I hope the Gfs forecast will stay on its current path.
Lets face facts we all been burned by the gfs that cried snow for many past winters. The gfs is a good forecasting model but its accuracy in ky as far as precipitation coming down as snow is dubious at best. On the streets the gfs would be consider nothing more than a “two bit Hustler”.
The 06z giveth and the 12z taketh away.Still aways out though.We shall see.
Well…you know, folks, you don’t have to read it…none of the snow people are twisting your arms.
I read because I think CB’s forecast knowledge is great, more right than wrong.
And…I read it all year long.
This period will likely give you some type of welcome home gift mitch.
things looking worse today the last two operational ec runs have cut it into the lakes next week. However the ensemble mean is much different than the operational runs.
As per the norm it is almost a guarantee that 7 days out the gfs will perform it’s usual 180. hate to be a pessimist as I do love the snow, just not when it follows 3 days of cold rain and it’s only flurries.
They are so consistently wrong, it seems something is busted in the modeling for frozen precipitation.
I have been suggesting that for almost seven years.
We need some lake-effect snow here in eastern ky. Maybe that would get things going.
I favor a Lakes cutter with this next weekend storm…Oklahoma/Missouri into Michigan will highly likely see a major winter event in this pattern before KY 98 times out of 100.
Well, now that we’ve added a split flow jet pattern to things…run to run model changes are going to be seen a lot. Note how the 06Z GFS slammed us with snow…but the 12Z has nothing. The pattern for late December looks interesting…but that is all that can be said reliably at this point.
So much pessimism; take a walk on the bright side; you live in a free country, the sun is out, count your blessings.
I’ll bet you don’t believe in Santa either, do you? 😉
I just think the models have a difficult time only with the ky & the surrounding areas due to the fact that we are nearly always stuck in the middle of the transitional zones. Just like the civil war, we are on the border or another way to phrase it “sitting on the fence”. Only this time the south has a little more pull than the north.
I just think the models have a difficult time only with the ky & the surrounding areas due to the fact that we are nearly always stuck in the middle of the transitional zones. Just like the civil war, we are on the border or another way to phrase it “sitting on the fence”. Only this time the south has a little more pull than the north.
I just think the models have a difficult time only with the ky & the surrounding areas due to the fact that we are nearly always stuck in the middle of the transitional zones. Just like the civil war, we are on the border or another way to phrase it “sitting on the fence”. Only this time the south has a little more pull than the north.
I just think the models have a difficult time only with the ky & the surrounding areas due to the fact that we are nearly always stuck in the middle of the transitional zones. Just like the civil war, we are on the border or another way to phrase it “sitting on the fence”. Only this time the south has a little more pull than the north.
As a long time reader and sometime poster I find Chris to be the most accurate forecaster around. He talks about TRENDS and POSSIBILITIES long-range so we can discuss them here. I don’t think he hypes anything. When the forecast is down to a few days out he nails it! Remember this is a blog and he treats it as such. We discuss weather and the what ifs. Please don’t live and die with every model run or post. Enjoy the ride and see what happens. As far as an old school winter, I have lived through some of those and they mainly happen in January. Today is December 10th. We have plenty of time.
Very well said, teach!
right now i myself am throwing out anything more than wrap around flurries in this pattern but am DEFINETLY routing for a chilly xmas! hopefully it’ll be atleast chilly out! lol i take what i can get for this holiday season!
Can I get some kool-aid too?
Does this make sense to anyone else?
Very active pattern will persist as long as we keep getting these SW low pressure systems we will get our fair share of abundant moisture what we need to happen is get a front far enough south and then we will have our fair share of wintry precip either way its a stormy pattern
Yes
Cant you read dude?
I guess I needed to grow up with my car on blocks, my house on wheels, and no shoes on my feet to comprehend mountain jibberish.
18z looks better..Now shows something on the 20th…Personally i think the GFS is done a good job at sniffing these storms out in the long range..Still a ways to go so all we can do is wait and watch if anything develops…
Remember what happened to the koolaid drinkers? It didn’t end up well from them.
Judge not…
Heh. 😉
well just why do you people come on here and read what chris has to say i think we all know why so you can start trouble so you dont like snow that fine chris why do you put up with these people
Such a nice postig!!!