Good Friday, everyone. It’s a super busy weather pattern as we roll into the final weekend of the year. This busy pattern takes us into the start of the New Year with Old Man Winter ready to take control of our weather in a big way.

Let’s start things out with the breakdown of the busy weekend:

  • Rounds of showers and a few rumbles of thunder roll across the state today.
  • Gusty winds may top 30-35mph at times.
  • Milder winds blow tonight into Saturday with highs on Saturday hitting 60-65 degrees.
  • The next storm system lifts from south to north across western Kentucky Saturday night and early Sunday.
  • That kind of a track gets my attention as it can cause some issues.
  • Rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms will spin along and ahead of the low.
  • Some of the storms may be strong with an outside chance for a severe storm or two.
  • High wind gusts of 40mph to 50mph will be possible ahead of this low.
  • A general 1″-3″ of rain will be likely from today through Sunday.

This heavy rainfall looks pretty much statewide…

Since there is a small chance for some of the Saturday night and early Sunday morning storms to be a little frisky, here are the Severe Weather Outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center…

 

In terms of the winds, the models have fairly widespread 40mph or higher winds with some local 50mph+ gusts. The EURO is especially concerning as it has a significant pressure drop with our surface low working across our region. The low enters southwestern Kentucky at 1003mb and then drops to 992mb as it enters into southern Ohio and that drop happens in about a 12 hour span…

A strengthening low like that can spawn some big time winds along and ahead of the track of the low and that’s exactly what the EURO is showing…

The EURO is showing 50mph to 60mph gusts. Other models aren’t quite as stout but do show some 50mph gusts…

Lingering showers continue into a chillier Monday with the next system quickly approaching from the west. This rolls in here with gusty showers for New Year’s Eve before a big temp drop as we ring in 2025. That big temp drop may also include snow showers and flurries for the first day of the year.

I like what the Canadian is doing in showing some flakes…

This kicks off a very cold and active first half of January, at least. You guys have been reading me yapping about it for several weeks now and the signs continue to point in that direction. Watch these DEEP troughs on the GFS Ensembles…

The snowfall forecasts from the same Ensembles…

Again, that’s based on a 10 to 1 ratio, but with a lot of cold air around, much higher ratios would show up.

I will have another update or two later today. Until then, let’s track some rain and storms…

Have a fantastic Friday and take care.