Good evening, everyone. We continue to track and big rain and wind maker rolling in for the second half of the weekend. That will be followed by a pattern that breaks strongly toward winter as we flip the calendar to 2025.

I have no changes on what this next system brings:

  • Rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms will spin along and ahead of the low.
  • Some of the storms may be strong with an outside chance for a severe storm or two.
  • High wind gusts of 40mph to 50mph will be possible ahead of this low.
  • A general 1″-3″ of rain will be likely from today through Sunday.

The future radar from the HRRR shows a lot of action with this system…

Winds are a big player along and ahead of the track of our low. Gusts of 50mph will be possible with the EURO and NAM showing even higher gusts…

 

The Storm Prediction Center has the Saturday severe threat to our south…

But they bring it into far eastern Kentucky on Sunday…

I can see that being pushed farther west for Saturday night and early Sunday.

The next system moving in for New Year’s Eve and Day continues to look like a rain and wind maker that ends with some snow showers and flurries.

That unleashes the full-blown winter pattern that likely takes a harsh turn.

All operational models are going to change a lot with individual snow threats, but the GFS is showing the potential for several starting late next week…

And from there…

Again, operational models will change a lot so don’t get too caught up with each run.

The more important snow signal is coming from the Ensembles that are pretty excited about snow chances over the next few weeks…

 

 

Again, those are 10 to 1 ratios.

I’ll have the full update later tonight so check back. Until then, let’s track the rains out there this evening…

Have a great rest of your Friday and take care.