Good Saturday and welcome to the final weekend of 2024. It’s a very active weekend with the threat for high winds, heavy rain and a few strong storms. This system is ahead of a major pattern change that brings a harsh winter pattern into our region for much of January.

Let’s focus on this current system before we look ahead. Here’s a fresh breakdown:

  • Temps today spike into the 60–65-degree
  • range with a scattered shower or two.
  • Low pressure lifts out of Tennessee into Western Kentucky tonight. From there, this low strengthens as it heads toward Indiana and Ohio.
  • This strengthening low will have a corridor of big winds along and ahead of it. 40mph-50mph winds will be possible, especially in central Kentucky.
  • Showers and thunderstorms will also show up with this and a few storms may be strong or locally severe, especially across the eastern half of the state.
  • Heavy rains of 1″-3′ may cause local high water issues in some spots.
  • Gusty showers linger through Sunday night and early Monday.

The future radar from the HRRR shows our setup pretty well from 7pm this evening through 7pm Sunday. Check out that line of thunderstorms later tonight…

The models continue to show our corridor of high winds…

In terms of the low-end severe threat tonight and Sunday, here are the latest Severe Weather Outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center…

TODAY

SUNDAY

Another system quickly moves in behind all this as we close out the year on Tuesday. Gusty showers and falling temps are likely on New Year’s Eve with the chance for some wraparound snow showers and flurries on New Year’s Day. This will likely be followed up by a light snow maker by Thursday night and Friday, but the models are struggling with that.

I continue to like what the Canadian is doing for New Year’s Eve and Day, and you can see the light snow maker by Friday…

The signal for a much larger system shows up a few days later and, once again, we will see some wild jumps with the models. Not only will they play to their respective biases, but we have a pretty extreme overall pattern taking shape and this will cause those wild swings.

Here’s the Canadian with that signal…

The EURO is too far northwest with this system, but it has a storm and follows it up with another storm…

Even the CPC is outlining our region in the heavy snow risk from January 4-10…

It’s good to see others now seeing the potential this pattern holds for snow and cold.

Speaking of potential for cold, look at temps from the overnight EURO as we hit the second week of January…

Obviously we take that for what it is at this time frame, but you are seeing the operational models now picking up on the potential for some harsh winter weather.

This entire pattern was first sniffed out by the EURO Weeklies and they continue to show the potential for a lot of snow in our region. Once again, this is based on only a 10 to 1 snow ratio…

I’ll have updates later today so check back. I leave you with all your Saturday storm tracking tools…

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas

Current MDs

Have a great Saturday and take care.