Good Wednesday and Happy New Year! 2025 is starting out on a cold note with some flakes flying and this is a sign of things to come. It’s a harsh winter pattern taking shape for much of January and it really cranks by the weekend as a winter storm takes aim at our region.

Let’s begin with what’s going on out there today. We have a cold northwest wind that’s spitting out a few snow showers and flurries across central and eastern Kentucky. I can’t rule out some hit and run coatings from time to time, but these shouldn’t cause any issues. Highs are in the 30s but that cold winds makes it feel like the 30s.

A light snow maker is next up as it arrives from northwest to southeast Thursday night and early Friday. That brings the chance for a light snowfall to parts of central and eastern Kentucky. Here’s the latest on who has the best chance to pick up on, at least, some coatings…

As far as the increasing threat for a winter storm to impact the region. Here are some things to know:

  • The models will continue to change for the next few days.
  • One thing to watch for is we are in the time frame where the models show something, then lose it, then bring back the original solution a few days before the event.
  • Low pressure should roll into west Tennessee on Sunday and roll to the east northeast. The track from there is where things get tricky.
  • A low that scoots due east is more of a snow maker for Kentucky. A low that scoots farther northeast would mean more freezing rain and sleet.
  • It’s too early to know where this low goes, but my initial thought takes this from near Memphis to near Pikeville then into southern West Virginia before giving way to a second low along the Mid-Atlantic coast.
  • A track like that brings significant amounts of snow, sleet and freezing rain to our region but the details have to be ironed out on who gets what and how much of… What.
  • Areas across the far south and southeast may even go over to rain for a bit as the low tracks through.
  • As the low passes, wrapround snow kicks in later Monday into Monday night.
  • The flow behind this is frigid and from the northwest with the potential for widespread light snows into Tuesday and, perhaps, early Wednesday.

The scenario I described above is pretty much what the EURO has been showing and continues showing as it takes out lead low toward far southeastern Kentucky…

That would be a MAJOR winter storm for Kentucky.

The Canadian and GFS are also MAJOR hits for Kentucky, but they are both a bit farther north with the track of the low…

CANADIAN

The GFS has been all over the map of late and has a similar track as the Canadian…

All of this matches up well with the map I made a few days ago…

We will launch into Winter Storm THREAT mode at some point later today. I just want to see another cycle of model runs.

Once that storm moves away, there’s no rest as the next system quickly dives in here during the second half of next week. This likely produces snow as bitterly cold air surges in. All the models have this and we will need to watch for something bigger firing up on the leading edge of this bitter cold air mass…

CANADIAN

GFS

This is a loaded pattern that isn’t limited to just one chance for snow and that’s something we haven’t seen around here for several years. The various ensembles show this in a big way with the snowfall forecasts over the next two weeks. Keep in mind, these are 10-1 liquid to snow ratios and the averages of 21 different runs for the GFS and Candian Ensembles and 51 different members of the EURO…

The weather doesn’t take a holiday so neither do I. Your normal updates come your way later today so check back. I leave you with your New Year’s flake tracking toys…

Have a fantastic start to the new year and take care.