Good evening everyone. Things continue to come together for the first decent snowfall of the season for parts of Kentucky. I don’t have any changes to the earlier snow map I posted, so I wanted to show you what some of the computer models are thinking for snowfall.
NAM
GFS
WRF
The latest runs will be rolling in soon enough and I will be tweeting what they’re showing. I will also have a full update coming your way tonight with an updated call for snowfall.
Have a great evening and take care.
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BAILEY radar exploding to south,
Thanks for the updates today…hoping Johnson will get in on the action 🙂
What does this do to our snow chances?
WOW..Gotta love the WRF…8 to 10 inches in some parts…Surely i must be dreaming…LOL….Hope it turns out to be like the freak storm that hit the northeast on Halloween…
well Dara it just shows its going be a STRONG LITTLE BOOGER and HEAVIER PRECIP better chance at accumlation as the ground so wet and tempos not below freezing as BAILEY has mention when says SLUSHY accumalation.
hey rolo just thought id say i really enjoy reading what you have to say. i gotta feeling this storm is going to overachieve
about time to start nowcasting with the radar
Hoping for an overachiever Rolo…thanks for answering 🙂
hey John well going on precip alone i think u might be onto something, like i said radar blowing up already to south, and that has to be reaching ground cause air is moist u think.
How about Knott Co.
Perhaps you missed the part where people with 8″ or higher heavy snow were out of power for up to a week? 😉
Be careful what you ask for 🙂
Im just tryin to get out of school rolo 😉 Im sure u were the same hahahaha
What is the WRF model? I am unfamiliar with that one…how reliable is it? I notice it has significantly larger amounts of snow for my are (Magoffin Co.).
what time is it suppose to start snowing tommrrow.
FIGHT THE HYPE! This system is for the 1 per centers in Ky.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather_Research_and_Forecasting_model
Without getting too much into weather nerd speak, it’s pretty much the NAM, just that it can be run locally and tweaks can be made to it to theoretically improve it’s performance for a given area or a given weather set up. I don’t know who’s WRF Chris has linked, but think of it as a tweaked NAM model.
the ay the radar looks eastern KY gonna get slammed
*throws storm in trash can*
Don’t want to wish misery on anyone,,,But people should be prepared for power failures…You say you are tired of “Ankle Biters” and “The Dome” and then say “Be careful what you ask for”..Can’t have it both ways..In the words of our good friend Rolo I hope it snows knee deep to a camels A##…
isn the precip gettin here too early?
WRF=Weather Research Forecast model. Its a newer mesoscale model we use. There are two versions. The first one everyone knows is called NAM or NAM-NMM. The WRF one is called NAM-WRF. The difference is that the WRF version has more sophisticated inner-workings that typically lead to higher forecast skill/accuracy.
As Shane alluded to, if you have a good computer system at home with Linux installed, you can run it for yourself. WFO Louisville runs a very high resolution WRF model that has been specifically tweaked for the Ohio Valley. While it has been specifically tweaked, it still has its off and on days with regards to accuracy. Higher resolution does not equal better accuracy!
It just for 4 Coutry in Eastren KY.
it is raining here in rockcastle and 39 degrees.
What does this mean overall? Good or bad?
Lincoln, Would you please elaborate?
Judging by those maps Chris posted I’m getting nothing here in Lexington!! Lol. All though I bet that’s not neccesarily the case
Thanks-If I had a “like” button, I would press it! LOL
it is a very bad sign if you wanted a decent snow. Just Joking, I don’t think it means anything, as the models seemed to be dialed in.
u had me til i read on lol.
ive noticed so precip west of the main storm and in the past hour its been getting bigger does this mean more snow for western KY?
This is central ky Lincoln. We’re getting nothing.
Hope Floyd County gets a little of the action!
That’s not true!!… We could get a Dusting!! Bahahahhahahah
just got word from my brother at the nws in charleston, wva that if models continue trend overnight of wetter and colder and westward then winter storm warnings will go out with the morning forecast for wed. night for 4 tp 8 inches of very heavy wet snow in a 6 to 8 hour window. locations for the warned area is eky, western and southern wva just south of the ohio river.
Great news toney. Anybody know anything about the latest gfs?
37.5 and rain, getting closer here in rockcastle
what a shame it couldnt be cold enough tonight for all this HEAVY rain moving thru knox co..to have been snow..but I guess we’ll see how tomorrow unfolds..still right around 40-42* down here…
If things keep trending the way they have been, I’m gonna love proving to my hubby that this site is far superior to The Weather Channel for our general area…that and have a decent snowfall to boot….good times in my book 🙂
the gfs is about the same, maybe a little wetter and a tad further west with most of the snow gone by day break on thursday.
where u from in ky.?
How much snow for my back yard in Pulaski Co.? Should I cancel Christmas?
http://ekywx.com/kychat.htm
COME ON OVER AND CHAT LIVE WEATHER!!
You appear to be postulating, since I did not say that it would snow much and implied no broad stroke for any area as far as accumulation.
History is a fact though, and ankle biters it has mainly been for most of central ky.
We live in Staffordsville which is about a mile out of Paintsville.
hey mike, 2.752213 inches for your backyard and yes i would cancel Christmas. lol,
to all you folks who get the snows this time enjoy it 🙂
Pullaski according to most models is on the border of nothing and the accumulating snows. I would say if your in the northern 1/4 of the county you will probably see no accumulation, the middle maybe around an inch or so and 3-4 inches possible down closer to mmcreary county.