Good Monday, everyone. A fast-moving system is putting down a touch of light snow across the south and southeast to start the week. Once we get rid of this, it’s game on toward a very active setup as we close January and jump into February.
The light snow early today isn’t terribly widespread nor is it heavy, but some light accumulations may show up for a small part of the south and southeast. I made this map for you a few days ago and it still looks to be in good shape…
Here are your tracking tools including our Kentucky Weather Cams to watch the snows flying across this part of the state…
As we watch a nice gradient setting up across the Ohio Valley Tuesday into Wednesday, gusty winds are going to be a player. Gusts by Tuesday night may top out in excess of 40mph at times…
Winds will also be a big player with the storm system coming our way from Thursday through Saturday. Gusts of 40mph-50mph will be possible as this system blows in with rounds of heavy rain and even some thunder…
Rainfall totals of 1″-2″ look common with the potential for some local 3″ amounts. Here’s what the models are seeing in the rain département…
From here, we find the models doing what they should be doing and that’s changing wildly from run to run. This is what we said would happen and it’s what you get with a very active and volatile pattern taking shape across North America.
All I can tell you is we will see a series of storm systems rolling through here next week ahead of a big push of cold and winter that is set to spread back in sometime at the tail end of week one into early week two of February.
All the models show this in their own way, but they differ from run to run and model to model.
Here’s the latest GFS…
And the European…
Temps can get pretty darn mild before they get pretty darn cold.
I’ll see you guys back here for another update or two later today. Make it a magnificent Monday and take care.
Soil moisture is fine, so this rain will serve to wash the salt away.
Not here.
Thanks Chris. Looking forward to Milder, with good soaking Rains in the coming days.
Enjoy the Day Chris.
You would think that as computer hardware becomes more powerful, we would see more agreement between the various forecast models, along with an increase in accuracy, but instead we’re seeing the exact opposite. This is especially true when looking at forecast periods longer than one or two days. One reason is that the algorithms used to calculate forecast vary between models. But in the time span since those models were developed, changes in our climate mean that the data that drives these models differs from what the programs originally expected, and increases in computer power are amplifying those differences. Most forecast models could benefit from significant reprogramming, instead of a tweak now and then.
I honestly don’t know what they can do to improve the weather models Joe. I would imagine that ( scientist ) will come up with a very different way to forecast weather. I don’t think that Artificial Intelligence is the answer. One of these days ( far distance future, ) The word forecasting will not be in a meteorologist vocabulary.