Good Thursday to one and all. We have a big-time rainmaker rolling into the region today and this may bring enough rain to cause local flooding issues. This kicks off a very active pattern that looks to kick into high gear as we get into February.

A few thoughts on our rain system:

  • Heavy rains develop from southwest to northeast today.
  • The heaviest rain falls this evening into the overnight hours.
  • A general 1″-3″ are likely across the entire state.
  • This would be enough to cause, at least, local high water issues to develop.
  • Any bit of ice that remains on creeks and rivers could further complicate high water matters.
  • Friday starts wet then goes to full sunshine as temps surge into the upper 50s and low 60s.
  • Winds will be a factor through Friday. Local gusts can reach 40mph at times.

Here’s a look at the rainfall forecast I’m rolling with…

A Flood Watch is out for western Kentucky as of this writing, but this may very well get expanded much farther east today. If that happens, you will see it here…

Saturday is a seasonable day with temps in the 40s and lots of low clouds trying to scour out. This will be followed by a big jump in temps for Groundhog Day Sunday as temps make a run toward 60 for most of the state.

The mild temps take us into early next week before changes show up.

The pattern after this remains active as cold shots start to get involved. Once again, the models are going to struggle with individual systems, but they’re still fun to watch…

The GFS Extended goes through March 4th and shows our region in the bullseye for heavy amounts of precipitation…

The Control Run of the GFS Extended is even more emphatic with the precip…

Heavy rains, heavy snows, and strong storms will all be possible during that time period.

The new EURO Weeklies took more of a winter looking turn from the middle of February through the middle of March. Compared to earlier runs, this trough is pushed much farther east…

I’ll drop by for updates later today. Until then, I have you all set to track the heavy rains into the region…

Make it a terrific Tuesday and take care.