Good Monday to one and all. A case of spring fever is breaking out across our part of the world as temps soar well into the 60s for the second straight day. This springlike pattern persists this week before winter starts to flex once again. As a matter of fact, the potential for another harsh period of winter weather is increasing.

Temps today are into the mid and upper 60s for many with a mix of sun and clouds showing up. Southwest winds are gusty, pushing that thermometer way up there.

A weak cold front drops in early Tuesday and really does a number on our temps. Tuesday may not get out of the 40s for many areas…

Wednesday has the chance to be even colder across the northern half of the state as clouds and showers develop. The Euro temp animation keeps the northern half of the state in the 30s while the south starts to mild up. This goes from 7am to 7pm…

That milder flow in the south then surges northward Wednesday night. Watch the temps rise into the 60s through Thursday morning at 7am…

This mild up is ahead of a storm system that can produce a few strong storms as it moves through Thursday. Temps come back down on Friday then bounce right back up for Saturday ahead of another storm system with more showers and storms…

The cold air behind that system hangs up right on top of us as we watch another system develop to the southwest by early next week. That one may very well threaten our region with winter weather and kicks off a series of systems that can bring winter weather threats our way.

As one goes out deeper in time, the operational models change quite a bit, but the trends are all we watch for.

Here’s the EURO showing the early next week system and subsequent systems behind it…

The GFS during the same time period…

The Canadian doesn’t go out as far as the GFS and EURO, but it’s also showing the winter weather potential early next week…

The EURO Ensembles give us a good look at why the pattern can turn into another harsh winter look for much of the country. Blocking across Alaska is forecast to hook up with blocking across Greenland, forcing a deep trough underneath that and into the country. Bitterly cold air would fill that trough while a flat ridge shows up across the Caribbean. This would place an active storm track along and south of our region…

The EURO Weeklies are following a similar script to what they were showing a few weeks before the January round of harsh winter weather. They’ve been hinting at this upcoming pattern going colder and snowier and are growing more emphatic as we get closer.

This 500mb height anomaly animation starts on Valentine’s Day and goes through the middle of March…

You can clearly see blocking from Alaska to Greenland that forces the trough underneath into the USA. The Weeklies also have a hefty snow signal…

Buckle up, folks.

I’ll have updates later today. Make it a good one and take care.