Good Saturday everyone. We are now at the halfway point of meteorological winter, which runs from December 1 through February 28. The first half has been a memorable one with record setting cold and snow for many cities throughout the state. The second half looks to provide more of the same with the potential for the worst of the winter yet to come… and it may be sooner than you think.
We have a lot on our weather plate over the next week, including a possible storm and arctic blast, so let’s get after it.
Today will feature an increase in clouds and winds as temps warm well into the 30s. A clipper works in later this evening and overnight and will bring a batch of light snow and flurries with it. This won’t amount to very much at all… but some colder air will move in for Sunday as highs come back down into the upper 20s and low 30s..
A system will be diving into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes late Monday into Tuesday and will bring some light precipitation to much of our region. Odds favor a touch of frozen stuff for some at the beginning of the event Monday. Temps should inch above freezing for much of Monday night into Tuesday leading to some lights rains. A cold front would then swing through late Tuesday with a big drop in temps and a switch to snow showers and squalls that would last into Wednesday morning.
The GFS Ensembles show this scenario well…
That would be a nice little shot of arctic air moving in for the middle of the week and may be a tease for what is to come late in the week into next weekend.
The models are strongly pointing toward a MAJOR blast of arctic air invading much of the eastern half of the country. This blast may be ushered in by a significant winter storm that could impact our region. Several models of late have been showing this for Thursday and Friday and the European Model has been leading the way…
The European takes low pressure from Texas on Wednesday into central Georgia by Thursday. It also shows a nice little inverted trough into the Ohio Valley. That low then turns the corner up the east coast on Friday as brutal arctic air dives in behind it. That solution would lay down a very nice snow around here that would be followed by the chance at sub zero temps.
Before we get too carried away with the above solution… the GFS sees things a bit differently. It shows the massive arctic outbreak, but does not develop a storm in front of it. It has a swath of arctic snows with the front late Thursday and would also bring bitterly cold air into town…
Storm or no storm… that is some wicked cold showing up on both models for the end of the week into next weekend.
Ok… we have set the table for what might be the harshest period of the winter so far. We will be tracking it for you every step of the way with updates as needed so be sure to check back. I will also post some thoughts on Kentucky snow storm research from our friend MJ.
Have a great Saturday and take care.
Select Page
first? qpf is from .2 to .5 on that euro run. snow for all Thursday on the 00z euro.
Get a life Mitch, staying up till 3 just so you can be first? Your as addicted as the rest of us. Just kidding. 🙂
Maybe MJ’s research project will shed some light on the phenomenon we here in central KY lovingly call the dome.
Thanks for the update, Chris. Looks like either way, its going to get very cold.
Thank goodness I have been having problems with snow withdrawal lol. Its seems so upsetting when the snow storms are over and there’s little or nothing to track lol. Lets hope the GFS is suffering from temporary insanity and we’ll get our storm and not just the bitter cold.
Seems nothing as far as snow to get excited about:
First event = less than 1″ snow & mix at best.
Second event = even if hits, will be a drive-by snow
Seems our opportunity for a big snow has passed for now and we are back in our usual rut, well locked in for 13 years.
The GFS is suffering from permanent insanity; it does this every year and every year those that are responsible for “tweaking” the physics maintain it is better; just stay tunned to Chris, you will get a good idea of what is down the pike
My thoughts exactly…that’s what frustrates me when ppl get fixated on just one model. Most ppl who aren’t weather buffs have heard the GFS as a term for model use. So, they think whatever it spits out is gold. But, many times its lost in space and spits out whatever it drank the night before.
My thoughts exactly…that’s what frustrates me when ppl get fixated on just one model. Most ppl who aren’t weather buffs have heard the GFS as a term for model use. So, they think whatever it spits out is gold. But, many times its lost in space and spits out whatever it drank the night before.
KU is doing a very thorough “trimming” of the trees in my backyard at the moment. I wonder if they know something……
GULFSTREAM
race8 11 horse should run a good one.
race 10 play of day 5 horse 3rd start strtches out 2 turns on the WEEDS, 8-1 ML will be bet. so bet it.
doug stone ID BE BETTER OFF IN A BOX today song.
For this coming week, besides light snow, mix and cold rain, the main issue will be cold air. Nothing left to see folks, move along 😉
The NWS is getting onboard:
WEDNESDAY – FRIDAY
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS
AS A BRIEF AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION AND THE
CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH RELOADS. EXPECT TO SEE A FEW PEEKS AT THE SUN
ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY STRUGGLING INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S DUE TO THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL SEE LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S…
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST UPPER LEVEL SKY COVER AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES BACK IN.
HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THURSDAY AS FULL CONUS
TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AND A SOUTHERN SURFACE
LOW TAKES SHAPE.
——->ENOUGH COLD AIR LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE FOR
PRECIPITATION TO FALL IN THE FORM OF ALL SNOW…AND WITH THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS…QPF COULD BE QUITE ROBUST<-------- WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL DURING THIS PERIOD. QUICK HITTING FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BY THURSDAY NIGHT…WITH YET ANOTHER REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND IT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY LOOK TO
STAY IN THE 30 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE WITH LOWS ON THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE
TEENS AS FRONT WORKS THROUGH. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT OUT OF THE 20S.
thanks for your negative thoughts you dont know what will happen..but of course we all know what your reply will be..”for the past 13 years…..”
nope only 2 am I’m in BWG which is CT. still way to late though lol. I just had to stay up to see the 00z euro last night.
Well it certainly looks like the NWS is seeing some serious evidence of potential in the late week storm. They are definAtely jumping on board in their recent discussion
Update for today/tonight:
AS SFC FRONT CONTINUES TO HEAD SOUTH TONIGHT…TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY COOL BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A BIT
MORE MOISTURE WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SE INDIANA AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION.
HERE WE HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT FOR THE SECOND PERIOD. SOME MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE…ESPECIALLY IF A HEAVY SNOW
SHOWER MOVES OVER AN AREA. TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD
COOL INTO THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA WITH LOWER-MID 20S
ACROSS KENTUCKY.
Update for tonight:
AS SFC FRONT CONTINUES TO HEAD SOUTH TONIGHT…TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY COOL BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A BIT
MORE MOISTURE WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SE INDIANA AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION.
HERE WE HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT FOR THE SECOND PERIOD. SOME MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE…ESPECIALLY IF A HEAVY SNOW
SHOWER MOVES OVER AN AREA. TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD
COOL INTO THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA WITH LOWER-MID 20S
ACROSS KENTUCKY.
Can’t argue with history though.
Just to clarify, its not my research…it is by some others in the office.
This is the awesome post. This is really knowledgeable post to all the students.
I remember when that storm rolled through. It got very cold here in Indiana, and we got enough snow that my flight home from Christmas break got delayed. Hopefully things get better in February.