Good Friday afternoon everyone. I will have an update on the weekend and early week weather coming up a bit later today. We are nearing the halfway point of winter and it has been a snowy and cold one across the state. Most areas are running above normal in the snowfall department and most will wind up well above normal before the winter is over. ** Hint Hint *** 
While we have not had a “true” arctic outbreak yet… the temp departures for this region have been pretty amazing. Check out the maps below showing the cold of the past week and the cold of the past month…
That is some crazy cold for this region into much of the southeastern part of the country. Guess what… this trend is likely to continue through the rest of the winter. I still cannot find any big breaks in the overall pattern while looking ahead through the rest of this month into February. I have been saying for a few days that I believe the worst of winter is yet to come. I say this for two reasons…
– There is an increased threat for a major attack of arctic air before the winter is over.
– There is also an increased threat for a major winter storm to slam our region.
At this point… I can’t tell you when, or if, either of those two will happen. All I can say is this is a winter pattern that can deliver one, if not both, of those to our part of the world.
I will have another update on the weather for the weekend and next week coming later today so be looking for that. Have a great afternoon and take care.
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sounds good to me…that’s the info. I’ve wanted to hear after reading and hearing some say that winter is about to go the opposite direction…Since its only Jan..and winter gonna hang tough, may be a great time to invest in a snowblower…LOL…
Thanks for taking the time to update, CB.
If the Euro is right…and that is a big IF…January 20-21 could be a substantial winter storm across the OH/TN valleys. The overall setup correlates well to one of our winter weather composites that we are actively researching with St. Louis University.
hmmm…just seen a Long Range forecaster who had been singing a warm up, a warm up..NOW TODAY HE SAID AND I QUOTE: I AM NOT A HAPPY CAMPER!! he said he has a lot of work to do this weekend now trying to get a hold on what is gonna be alot different winter than previously thought…:)…all i can say is WAY TO GO CHRIS BAILEY, who decided to call it before anyone else did that I know of anyways..but anyways, looks like that February warmup (that song that some sang) may not happen after all…WINTER TO REMEMBER? SO FAR IT HAS BEEN..esp. in my backyard…:) today makes day 7 (in a row)that ive had at least 3+” of snow on the ground…now thats saying something for southern ky.
🙂 !!!!…OXYGEN PLEASE…HUH..HUH>>>BREATH<<<...
LOL..just heard a good one for the GFS…( GOOD FOR SPECULATING)..LOL…I THOUGHT THAT WAS A GOOD ONE…
I just saw that myself a few minutes ago. It would be a really bad one if that run is correct and mainly freezing rain with the 540 line north and the region in the 20’s.
I’ve backed off my ideas yesturday pattern is right but the northern storm is to strong. you win some and take your hits in this field. A low should cut through the lakes based on modeling.
Could you put a link to what yall are referring too?
Cool. Literally 🙂
At least we wont have a drought any time soon, will we?
Who is the forecaster who is now jumping off the warm train?
That would be a WONDERFUL birthday present. 🙂 I’ve been watching that storm closely. However, I trust the Euro model like I’d trust a theif. I guess we’ll see what happens.
What’s the winter weather composite to which you are alluding? I will be flying back to SDF on the 23rd so I’m quite interested.
Here:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html
Hey! That was the problem with the last event- Ohio and Tennessee got the big snow and most of Kentucky was a low-snow sandwich.
How about throwing “KY” in that too? 😉
I know what you mean, it is just funny that the last event had the same “OH/TN valleys” as a path and skipped KY (for the most part).
Funny stuff! 🙂
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hzGIlhBfQM&feature=related
Looks like FARMERS ALMANAC is right on que this winter!!
This ole boy has been on top of this winter since JULY 2010 !!!…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nWXYjUfQRYY&feature=rec-LGOUT-real_rn-1r-5-HM
Kinda hard to talk about in the comments section, but basically we’ve gone through and identified major winter storms that have affected the area over the last 30 years. We analyzed the data preceding the storms and found consistent set ups prior to the events. We’ve got about 5-6 different set ups that we have identified. This system for next week is a good match to one of them.
I tell everyone, “You’ve checked the rest, now check the best!” Chris Bailey
Hi MJ! Sounds interesting and I would love to hear more about it. You could always write something up and we could post it here. 😉
The JMA likes the end of next week as well.
I enjoy the comments on this blog for the most part. Yesterday, I took an interest in the comments made about forecasters relying too much on models instead of using their ‘weather whisperer’ skills. I will say that the models are an excellent resource to detect TRENDS regarding available moisture, temps, etc….That wasn’t readily available back in the day. But forecasting should be easier today, right? Well, today’s forecaster needs to know which blend of models to use to augment their existing skills, especially in relation to their locale. Such local interpretation can either determine a good weatherman or one who needs a good snowball thrown his way, if there’s ever a good storm to make a good snowball. I’m gone.
LOL Blizzard! When I read your comment, I BUSTED out laughing!
Just no ice, please!
Kentucky would also be included in this storm. The Euro shows a humungous storm popping up.
MJ: Get with Chris and see what you can put up for us all too see. It sounds quite interesting. You have all of our attention. We are looking forward to seeing something posted on these composite charts you guys have been researching!
Well said, MS. There’s definitely a balance involved—and a forecaster who’s lived in the region for a longer period of time is going to be better equipped to forecast, focus on, and handle his/her local weather. Take for instance Chris’s expertise in upslope snow and overall general snowfall forecasting. He almost always gets it right, even when others say something completely different.
I just hope he doesn’t change the formula his ole’ noggin’ is using…because it has been doing just fine for a long time. 🙂
That would be great!! 🙂
Gosh, and I’ve been saying for days there have been a few meterologists that were on the warming trend bandwagon– and I got jumped all over for it too. (here on this blog)
Glad to see others have noticed it too,finally.
Just saw approximately 500 geese heading due south here in Pulaski County. Don’t remember ever seeing any heading south this late and that many together! A sign of things to come????
Probably to most telling post in this thread.
A week away, always a week away… In my time in central KY the WA (week away) storm has never panned out…
sorry CHURGHILL was gone today, saturday at gulfstream
race 10 8-1 5 horese a WINNER on turf.
race 5 a first time starter 3 year old 8 horse, my drunk uncle on scene says he ready too.
probably off to get some bread and milk
Any opinions on the chance of accumulating snow with the early-week system?
I’ll see what I can do.
euro weeklies back chris up on the extended. those who follow bastardi at accuweather he is going to rethink his feb forecast over the long weekend.
flooding is what going happen no snow to amount to anything at end of stoem.
Thanks for your input rolo. Always like to hear what you have to say
Doesn’t he always? I don’t know HOW many times he’s flopped like a fish this winter. He is one that tends to jump the gun on the models and in turn rarely gives us any info of good use!
dang I hope this trend is going to continue like predicted.