Good Friday to one and all and welcome to the weekend. A tradition around here is observe a three day weekend as more play and less work is always a good thing. 
Our weekend is kicking off on a cold start as we get set for another active period of weather next week. It’s a period that finds the computer models all over the place in how things play out. Shocking, I know! 
In the short term… temps will generally be in the teens to start us out today before recovering into the upper 20s and low 30s. A mix of sun and clouds will be noted.
Saturday will see temps spiking up several degrees compared to today. Readings will hit the mid and upper 30s in the east and low 40s west. Winds will gust up and some afternoon clouds will increase ahead of a clipper heading into the Great Lakes. This will drag a cold front through the area by Sunday morning and may produce a period of light snow and flurries.
The question then becomes… will we get a weak wave of low pressure to ride eastward along this front on Sunday? The NAM has been trying to show something like this and the Canadian Model has had it for a few runs in a row…
That would bring a more pronounced period of light snow for Sunday to much of the region. I need to see some more model support for this before I bite on it. The GFS and European are not showing this… although one can see where the GFS isn’t too far away from doing so.
That same Canadian model run is also the most aggressive for early next week. It has a system diving in from the northwest into the Ohio Valley and picking up a southern stream low pressure…
The GFS and the GFS Ensembles also have this system diving in from the northwest… but they do not develop the southern stream low pressure.
GFS Ensembles
That would basically imply we get a period of light overrunning moisture early Monday that can be in frozen form before a switch to a cold rain that would then end as snow as the front swings by. The Canadian solution has more of a wintry look to it than the GFS family… especially once the low passes by on Tuesday. Let’s give the models just a little more time to come to an agreement.
As mentioned.. the models have been all over the place with how all that plays out next week and I suspect it has to do with a temporary relaxation of the blocking that has been with us all winter. As the NAO spikes positive for a bit… the ridge along the west coast (+PNA) comes to life to help ensure the cold stays in the eastern part of the country. It’s as if the -NAO is taking a break and the PNA ridge is stepping in to substitute before the -NAO comes roaring back the next few weeks. The models will often struggle when they see some of these indicies switching around a bit.
Remember the big arctic blast that was showing up on the models a few weeks back for the middle of this month? Well… it has been showing up quite a bit this week… this time, a few days later than what they had originally been calling for.
Here is one of the extreme solutions from the GFS…
The usual disclaimer: That map is a snapshot of what one run of one model thinks will happen and is being shown to illustrate what the pattern is capable of producing.
I will update the Sunday through Tuesday systems coming up a bit later today.
Now that things have calmed down some… let’s start the weekend off right with tunes. Your friendly weather dude has a rather eclectic mix of music on his ipod. Everything from my boy Garth Brooks to Jay-z… if it’s good music, I’m all about it. I leave you with an old school song from Elliott County, Kentucky native… the late, great Keith Whitley…
Have a great Friday and take care.
I dont know why you are using the GFS at all chris, its garbage right now, not even worth a look. Use the model that has been at least somewhat accurate this winter, the euro.
I still think it’s fascinating in terms of winter storms how, in the 70’s and 80s, they could seemingly see a storm in Texas, predict snow for our region, and it most likely happened…..And today, 30 years in the future, it’s just not like that.
As someone who used to live in the tropics, I am more than ready for winter to be over now. Since a big whollop of a snow (nice meteorological term there) hasn’t hit us in Central KY, I’ve decided at this point, you can have the cold and the snow. What I want is for it to hang in the 40’s and 50’s until Spring, and oh yeah, give us plenty of rain too because I want a good garden this summer.
Old Man Winter… go back to bed. Leave us alone!
Great blog as always, Mr. B. I hope we don’t get -10 degree weather!
Eek. -10? Reminds me of Buffalo NY.
Thanks CB. It will be fun seeing what happens in the next few weeks. I’m still hoping for snow, and not giving up! 😉
I’ve thought that same thing. Maybe my memory is not so good, but it seemed that the weather folks were generally spot on in the 70’s with their winter forecasts. And, this is when they used cardboard cut-outs for their maps and certainly no computer models. I don’t remember them missing it too often because snow days to a middle schooler was very important! And I certainly kept track of the forecasts.
Great song and video…now we just need to find one that references snow that much!
Morning everyone. Woke up to sunshine this morning, but a very cold 13 degrees. I am glad tat we kept the clouds around mostly overnight, as that kept it from being even colder. I am looking forward to your thoughts as you see more model runs on the storm next week.
As for today’s and tomorrow’s weather, I am kind of enjoying seeing the sun, at least for a couple of days.
Thanks, Chris, for the update, andfor all that you do. Have a GREAT Friday, everyone!
Are you trying to tell us through the video that you really think it will rain, and not snow for the next event?
Also, I know you just said that the cold has been pushed back a few days,,but your map you should us when you have been talking about the artic cold had it in here for tomorrow–where now it maybe in high 30-low 40’s..So…not sure if we are going to go THAT cold. To be honest most of us on here don’t want it that cold, we just want 30 and tons of snow!!!!!!!! Here’s praying that within the next two weeks we can the Superbowl of snows!!
a whole 9* down here in knox co. this morning…brrr..
Agree- been saying that for a few years here. I have always been a weather nut and contrary to assertions by some, even the more recent 1993 and 1996 events were discussed days in advance and not questioned.
The rails appear to have fallen off in 1998 with a big miss. After that, virtually ALL of the misses were mets calling for big events and we got nothing or small amounts. The most infamous being about nine years ago when all of the mets were calling for a HUGE storm and schools canceled the DAY BEFORE the said event. Barely a flake fell and the mets cred on such events plummeted.
My theory has been the advancement of models have actually made the effort to forecast TOO complex and the parameters in the math used are either biased or too sensitive.
CB appears to use a composite forecast (smart) and not get hung up on one model. The reason CB does such a good job is because he knows the models strength and weaknesses and makes his own interpretation.
Most mets are parrots to what the models say and tend to look silly as a result.
Rolo, I’m gonna be at Churchill today, give me some HOSSES!!!!
Listen to Aspen Glow by John Denver, or watch the video on youtube, it’s a
beautiful song about snow.
The models can always go from big snow to cold rain as time progresses but I never see the opposite, cold rain to an actual big snow. 13 years of piddly while areas 30 miles or more in any direction have gotten their share. My garage is nasty, my cars are nasty, my driveway is frozen, give me a big snow or go ahead and warm up to 70 and rain all you want.
The reason forecasters may have done a better job in the late 1970’s is that you remember the period favorably because it always snowed. Or it is possible that more forecasting was actually done back then because there were no great models on which to rely. I think that’s why Tom Wills was always so darn good. He, like Chris today, forecasted rather than simply interpret model predictions.
As far as where the pattern goes, posters on americanwx.com say the Euro weeklies keep it very cold into mid or late February. The CFS also shows a cold February as well.
There might be some validity to this statement, as Tom Wills was horrible the last 15 years before he retired. Maybe, the models started influencing his forecasting too much. 90% of todays METS are just reading charts and not using their noggen. Thanks goodness we are all blessed with Chris Bailey!
That is key, since CB has some old school in his ofrecast process. Just wish our snow was old school…..
wow! I like the look of the Canadian model for southeast Ohio early next week. I know its early, but I guy can dream! I’ll keep my fingers crossed.
by the way, does anyone have a link where I can view the various models as they come available?
CB has them posted on the right side of this page under the twitter updates…
I watch this one.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html
Bubba, Chris needs to start an archive of posts that made since. Yours did. Well done. Most mets today seem gunshy about forecasting a big snow probably because they don’t trust themselves or the models. Then when the models begin to align they jump on board before the flip flopping begins.
I still say that I have never seen a model correct it self from a cold rain to a big snow. ( for Central KY)
new update as of 1:30 pm.
Thanks! don’t know how I missed them on this page, and I will check them out on the ohter link.
LOVE the video! Also, I am so excited for the weekend. For those of you who dont yet have a plan to get out and enjoy the little sunshine, I have a suggestion on my website: http://helenbukulmez.com/2011/01/14/an-invitation-for-a-special-day-in-kentucky/. You can also find your new Zodiac sign there as well. Dont be afraid of the change the earth brings you: embrace it 🙂