Good Sunday to one and all. It’s a frigid wind blowing across Kentucky today as we enter into the time period where spring and winter do battle. That fight comes to a head this week as a big time storm system blows across our region from Tuesday through Thursday.

Temps out there today reach the upper 30s and low 40s in most areas, but gusty winds make it feel much colder.

The numbers rise quickly by Monday as our winds start to respond to what’s coming for the middle of the week.

My breakdown of what to expect from this remains pretty much unchanged:

  • A STRONG low pressure develops in the Plains early Tuesday then strengthens as it works into the northern Ohio Valley Tuesday Night and Wednesday.
  • This track puts parts of our region and points south in the severe weather risk area
  • The greatest severe storms threat comes from Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning.
  • Waves of strong to severe storms will be possible during this time.
  • All modes of severe weather are possible. Damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes.
  • The greatest threat may be across western and southern parts of the state, but that can easily change over the next few days.
  • There’s also a window for another round of strong or severe storms Wednesday afternoon and early evening.
  • Damaging winds with this setup are also possible and that’s with or without thunderstorms. 50mph-60mph gusts may show up.
  • Thermometers crash Wednesday night with a good shot at light snow and snow showers for Thursday.
  • Light snow accumulations for Thursday are a pretty good bet.

The models are all in pretty good agreement with the overall evolution of our storm system. Here’s the view from the GFS…

The severe weather potential is now within the 3 day window for the typical Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. Here’s what that looks like for Tuesday and Tuesday night…

With or without severe storms, winds are a major player with this low as gusts may reach 50mph to 60mph at times…

Wraparound snows will be likely on the backside of this system late Wednesday night and Thursday. Winds will be rather gusty with this, and we can actually have cancellations and delays showing up on Thursday.

Here’s what the models are seeing for the potential of a light snowfall during this time…

 

There’s another system coming in after that by next weekend, but how it plays out remains to be seen. This can bring rain and some snow through here….

That will then be followed by a huge surge in temps for the week of the 10th. The 70s will likely show up and they may very well bring strong to severe storms back into the region as well.

I’ll have another update later today. Make it a great Sunday and take care.