Good afternoon gang. What a wicked day we are seeing out there… snow showers and squalls… temps around 20 degrees… winds gusting to 25mph… blowing snow and feel like temps in the single digits. This has been a fairly harsh past week in what has been a harsh winter.
I know a lot of other sources have been running around yelling winter is over… winter is over. Keep in mind some of these are the same folks who said winter would never start. From my view… I think the worst of winter is still to come around here. How’s that for drawing a line in the sand?
In the short term… snow showers and squalls will continue into tonight for much of central and eastern Kentucky. These can lay down some local accumulations up to an inch or so with higher amounts in far east and southeast Kentucky. Track the action here…
Temps today are struggling to get into the low 20s for many areas as winds continue to blow the snow around. If you have to be outside today… dress for the wind chill…
Current Wind Chill Temps
If you want to see something cool… take a look at how much of the country is covered in snow right now…
Out of our 50 states… only Florida does not have snow on the ground. Wow! Yes… Hawaii has snow on the ground at the top of the mountains. That map is further proof to what a harsh winter we are having across the country.
Looking down the weather road…
– A clipper will move through the lakes this weekend bringing some light snows in here.
– The pattern for much of next week is loaded with potential big weather makers. A deep trough is going to be carved out across the nation’s mid section. Several impulses will be dropping into the base of the trough and will give the models fits in trying to handle these.
– It is safe to say we will be watching for one or two lows coming out of the deep south next week. Rain or snow or both? That is something I cannot answer yet.
– A major shot of arctic air is likely to engulf much of the country late next week into the following week.
As you can see… winter is far from over and I think this line from one of the classic movies of all time sums it up…
BLUTO: What? Over? Did you say “over”? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?
I will update as needed… take care. FOOD FIGHT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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tx CB, IMO first system next week rain and some mixing, look out for flooding will be the threat.
first?
LOL, CB!
Thanks for ansering my unanswered questions, and drawing that line in the sand! Seems like every other met says next week and beyond will be warming and winter is over.
With what I’ve seen the past few weeks, I’ll stick with you.
Thanks for the updates, and for this blog!
Pleeeegdde Piiinnn???!!!!
Chris, I have to laugh just a little bit. All day, it has snowed here nonstop. Ostly light snow, but we have probably picked up another 1/4 to 1/2 an inch. It is snowing pretty good as I type this, but nothing has shown up on radar all day. I am ot talking little bitty flakes…I am talking decent sized flakes that are coming down heavily at times….interesting.
Nice and cold though…looking forward to more info on the weekend and next week. Everybody stay safe and warm! Thanks Chris for all you do.
Thanks Chris. I only listen to you anyway. You’ve made it good all these years, why should this year be different. I’ll stick to your side of the sand!!
I haven’t seen any mets. calling for Winter to be over. What I have seen, however, is some mets. calling for slightly improving conditions going into February. They are doing this because all the models, and all the indices are indicating it’s going to happen. CB apparently is going on the assumption that the models and teleconnection forecasts are all wrong. If he’s right, there’s more brutality to come in our weather.
It better not be over… I haven’t gotten my Lexington blizzard yet…
Chris, I think you are drawing a line in the snow! Keep up the great work, blog is much appreciated.
I’ve been meaning to check back, just been to busy plowing the driveway!
……Now THAT’S rubbibg it in!!….
Dead on for our area Chris!…..
close to 7″ on the ground in southeast ohio, about 3 of that has come today….
back outside its still snowing!
Sand??????? what sand?,all we can see is snow.LOL Still coming down in Knox county.If these flakes were quarters and I was outside with a bucket for a couple of hours I wouldn’t have to worry how I was gonna pay my electric bill.
Thanks Chris,you rock!
I REALLY want winter to be over, but I know who has the best track record. It ain’t the guys saying winter is over. Chris Bailey, why do you have to be so right all the time? 😉
Chris
We have 5 inches on the ground here in Clay County. Some of that total is left over snow from Friday since it hadn’t had a chance to melt. But it still measures 5 inches with the yardstick no matter when it arrived
Still snowing in Whitley Co. Thanks for the update, Chris! Bring on the winter!! He He!!!
Radar is clear yet it is still snowing cats and dogs here in harlan county…
LOVE IT !!..:)
Can somebody post up a link to the mets. saying Winter is “over”? I missed it. Honestly.
Hey, How will the weather be the end of this month? Thanks
Chris, if you say there is more to come then there is more to come. Simple as that! 😉
Berea – Very light flurries and not a lot of accumulation. I think we dodged this one.
Same here in Letcher Co. I got to the station at about 5am, swept the snow (about an inch) from the sidewalk and stairs. About five and a half hours later, I swept another inch and a half off. After the others arrived, we’ve swept the snow off about 3 more times! Since I arrived this morning we’ve received about 4 or 5 inches of fresh powdery snow. I guess I’m gonna have to bring a snow blower to work…
Heavy snow in Bardstown area. I have noticed the nws radar is usually the only one that can pick up these isolated snow showers. Once again Chris hit the nail on the head with his totals and the potential for wraparound. Can’t wait to see what happens next week.
Hello, how will the weather be at the end of this month?
WOW that map of snow coverage looks like something out of the movie DAY AFTER TOMORROW! FREAKY!
Ok…….so
18.6 inches so far this season at Blue Grass Apt. Normal snowfall as on today (based on records) would be 4.5 inches. So BGA is 14.1 inches above normal as of today. I think parts of Lexington are over 20 inches so far for the season.
In the previous post you saw map with 40-50 between the lines. These numbers represent the number below average. We could see highs in the single digits around this region if this map is correct. Mon-Wed next week will be interesting to say the least…
Its not showing anything because the radar out of Jackson is down.
I think you are reading that wrong. The shaded areas are probabilites of below or above normal. The black dashed lines are normal averages.
Do you really believe Missouri will be 70 degress below normal?
Oh, wow. Ok.
If that holds true, then it looks like its gonna be fun. 😉
Sorry, this went to bjenks above. I think you guys are misreading that forecast. Read their discussion.
Other than Joe Bastardi, who is saying the winter is over? Poor Joe, he’s been wrong since mid-December. He’s been calling for a warm-up for a month and now he’s even backing off the warming from the 20th going forward.
The Euro is about as cold as I can remember seeing late next week. A map of 850 temps posted at AmericanWX.com showed the core of the PV in Indiana with -40C to -50C temps. Even the GFS is going cold again. It’s been trying to sniff out a pattern change three time, but to no avail.
Hey Tim, how are the back roads down there in Knox county? Thanks.
Keep up the great forecasting. YOU are my main weather guy and gotta love ‘Animal House’!
They are all backing off the ‘pattern change’ and ‘warm up’ lingo now, I’ve noticed. 🙂 (I can’t name ’em ’cause I don’t pay too much attention to them.)
Funny. I think they’ve peeked in on CB 😉
I can’t even find the stuff I saw the last couple of days, all I see now is a backing off the ‘warming trend/pattern change/beginning of the end’ lingo now.
Hey look, I am just commenting on what I have seen. I asked the questions about why the difference in forecasts because thats what I saw looking around, K? 🙂
I have 5″ of new snow now. 11″ on the ground overall.
Nothing on radar, but its a light snow in E-Town right now.
oops. LOL. That was supposed to be a new post.
I know Brian Goode is saying there are signs of a pattern change in early February, but who else?
E-TownKy – Sorry for the mis-leading information. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/erf_info.php?outlook=610&var=t
Here is a link to show you how to read the maps posted. The number in between is the percentage that the temps will be below… Go to link to get better understanding…
as posted in last thread a SWAFAN as well the RADAR IN JACKSON IS OUT OF ORDER PEOPLE.
MarkS…Thanks for bringing that to my attention. I replied back to E-TownKy giving her the link on how to read the maps. The number in side shaded area is the percentage that it will be below. I was reading the verbage at the bottom right had corner of map and it is confusing…So there is a 40 to 50 percent chance that we will see below normal temps over the next 6 to 10 days…LOL…THINK SNOW
MarkS…Thanks for bringing that to my attention. I replied back to E-TownKy giving her the link on how to read the maps. The number in side shaded area is the percentage that it will be below. I was reading the chart at the bottom right had corner of map and it is confusing…So there is a 40 to 50 percent chance that we will see below normal temps over the next 6 to 10 days…LOL…THINK SNOW
Rolo you’ve been saying this since early on…thanks for the info…I heard you loud and clear…the first time! Thanks again!
Wow – Richmond would be at about 1/2 that..
Chris,
As usual, you have gone above and beyond with your forecast and updates regarding this week’s snow. You spoil your readers (that’s a compliment)…watch out…we’ll grow to expect it 😉
Your blog speaks in layman’s terms AND provides the technical meat people love. Your ever-positive and uplifting demeanor on the blog underscores your character and demonstrates your comittment-to and respect-for your readers. On top of that, you NEVER fail to entertain and leave your audience smilin’. Wonderful combination of good science AND entertainment (compliment).
I hope you take time to step back and enjoy your success and the positive impact you continue to make on your reading audience. Keep up the good work! Your meteorological prowess, your tremendous comittment of time, and the effort you put into your blog on a daily (and nightly) basis does not go unnoticed by your readers.
Keep up the great work…my hat is off to you!
Take Care!
West
Snow total shmow totals 😉 Not one of them has breached 4″ in Richmond and this one did not bust past 2″.
Given me 5″ or larger snows so kids can have fun or give us rain. Nice salt, less accidents, no canceled schools and no strained budgets due to these little events.
Thanks! 🙂
back roads still snow/ice covered…still snowing
CB’s post didn’t mention other mets, he just said “other sources”
and “same folks”.
Don’t know if there are any links.
Snowing enough to start covering the roads again at East Point in Johnson County.
Alex sosnowksi at Accuweather (i thought it was funny he has ‘snow’ in his name 🙂 ) has been harping on it since Dec 29th. He’s the only name I can remember.
I’ve had enough..!!!
I love snow, but it’s time to move on…
Barbecue, cold “beverage” & cornhole…!
Come on spring time….
18z gfs has a good warm-up towards the end of the month. Of course previous runs of the gfs had artic temps during the same time frame.
no, no, no….snow AND barbecue 🙂
Appears to be back up now.
we still have about 8 weeks hope left in winter…..enjoy it and just hope cky can get a 6plus snow….i really liked hearing mr. bailey say we have experienced the worst yet…question to anybody in madison co…any roads you know of that are bad..or is all roas good to go
Vinny? You want winter to be over and it’s Jan 12th? Really?
I agree completely…..make that smoker and snow here 🙂
Blog is slow tonight….where is everyone
Here is someone who seems to agree with Chris about the cold being here to stay for a while.
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/44289/weekend-of-january-2223-may-be.asp
Anyone who thinks winter is going anywhere soon is seriously dilutated! Seriously!! It is the second week of January! There are weeks of winter yet and write it down now we will have one or two major storms yet! Sorry just my take!!
Winter Warlock
pretty much has snowed in knott co. all day and into the evenings..Still snowing and wind blowing..If not for the wind we would of got alot more accumulations..Hard to measure but i would guess anywhere between 4-5 inches..Add that to what we all ready had and it looks like winter wonder land..
Plume off Lake Michigan showing up nicely now.
The first map shows next Wed. – Fri. Lets hope it moves in a little earlier…Like Mon. or Tue. as the system coming through Sun – Wed looks to be as impressive as the NEW YEARS rain.
NWS in Jackson says these snow squalls are (40:1), (50:1) ratio’s !!!!..wow
I ran into quite a few slick spots out there. In the county and city.
Chris is the best upslope forecaster in the business.
Aww…you are making me hungry. There is something magic about brisket smoke settling across my backyard on a cold winter day…. 🙂
Pretty intense snowband coming through, winds gusting and snow falling like crazy.
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/centgrtlakes_loop.php
Good shot of the moisture plume.
Ahh, the ever elusive “squals” and “wrap around” that have so far been mythical legends in the Richmond vicinity. 😉
There are going to be some people waking up to some snow that they did not expect.
There are going to be some people waking up to some snow that they did not expect.
There are going to be some people waking up to some snow that they did not expect.
There are going to be some people waking up to some snow that they did not expect.
LOL! Oh really..?! 🙂
I read his comments from Dec to beginning of Jan, and he was harping ‘warming trend’ the whole time. Glad to see he’s ‘rethinking’ his position today finally.
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Kentucky Weather Center: Wednesday Afternoon Weather Thoughts
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