Good Saturday, everyone. We’ve made it to the final weekend of April with cooler winds settling into the Commonwealth. This means our skies become much better by later today and Sunday. Looking into Kentucky Derby Week, waves of showers and thunderstorms look to become rather common.
As always, let’s begin with today. Temps out there today are generally in the 60s with morning showers moving away, giving us a mix of sun and clouds as the day wears on. With clearing skies overnight, temps drop closer to 40 degrees with the chance for some upper 30s in the east…
The rest of Sunday looks great with highs mainly in the 60s with partly sunny skies.
Winds turn around quickly on Monday as a southwesterly flow boosts temps into the upper 70s to middle 80s…
There’s the chance for an isolated shower or storm on Monday with a much greater threat for showers and storms arriving later Tuesday. This is along and ahead of a cold front dropping in from the northwest. Initially, this brings the chance for some severe storms Tuesday into Tuesday night, and the Storm Prediction Center is already looking ahead to this potential…
This front gets in and slows down on top of us with more showers and storms for Wednesday. Low pressure then develops to our southwest and rolls in here later Thursday into Kentucky Oaks Friday. That setup can bring another round of big boomers with the potential for heavy amounts of rain.
Here’s how the GFS sees this scenario playing out…
The models are trying to get rid of this before Kentucky Derby Saturday, but it wouldn’t take much to keep some lingering rains going into the big day.
Much colder winds will blow in for Derby Weekend with the potential for patchy frost at some point…
The setup for the following week may spit out a slow-moving upper level system. If that’s the case, and the blocky pattern suggests it’s very possible, additional rounds of heavy rain producing showers and storms would be possible…
That would also be accompanied by temps back into the well below normal range…
I may throw you another update later today. Until then, let’s track whatever is left out there to start this Saturday…
Have a great Saturday and take care.
It won’t frost nor get very cold.
A light frost there may be, but below freezing temperatures doubtful.
I think it’s safe to put the “Barney colors” away until next fall. I also think that we’re still looking at above normal severe storm chances through the end of May. Most likely we won’t see a greater number of severe storms, but those that do achieve severe status will be more intense than normal, both in heavier rainfall amounts and especially stronger than normal winds.
Severe weather could ramp up, as we get closer to a full ENSO – neutral. I hate to see La Nina returning sometime this coming Autumn. I’m ready for a weak El Nino for next Winter, as that phase of ENSO brings many chances of Snows.
Were still in the swings of cool or warm air battle until at least June. We been going through this every year since I been on earth. Mother nature is part of cycle that we endure
Exactly right !