A Few Late Evening Thoughts

Good evening gang and thanks for all you do for the blog. I am dropping in for a quick update to say there are no changes to my thinking. Let’s run it down once again to get us all on the same page…

– Light snow will develop across most of the state by Tuesday morning. Light accumulations will be taking place across central and western Ky.

– Steady snows will rapidly overspread the area from the west early Tuesday morning. The heaviest snow will be across the northern areas with lighter stuff in the south. As a matter of fact… parts the south may not get much accumulation during the daylight hours.

– Accumulations through Tuesday night will range from 2″-4″ in the north to 1″-3″ in the south. Refer to my snowfall maps for all that. Again.. that is everything that falls from late tonight THROUGH Tuesday Night. There is no date northern Kentucky will be the big winner in round one.

– Wraparound snows will really crank up later Tuesday night and continue into Wednesday and Thursday. This will put down additional accumulations of, at least, 1″-3″ for central and eastern Kentucky with much more as you get into the southeastern Ky mountains.

– Winds will be gusty later Tuesday night into Wednesday and will blow the snow around as arctic temps arrive.

Track the increase in snows here…

I will have a full update coming your way later tonight so be sure to check back. Have a great evening and take care.

26 Comments

patty on January 11, 2011 at 2:49 am

Thanks for the update Chris!!! The winds are already howling here in Versailles!

Sadieville on January 11, 2011 at 3:04 am

Thanks Chris…your dedication to this blog is appreciated. I don’t post much but I read everyday. Thank you to all the regulars too. I appreciate your knowledge of weather. You are a huge asset to the blog. I have no idea how to read those weather maps, but I trust in your expertise to keep KY notified of upcoming weather events. I am a snow lover, however, our ground has been white since Dec 1st, with the exception of a couple of days…I am kinda over it already…I’m ready for sunshine, softball, and camping.

If we got a Big Daddy storm…I would still have to giggle just a little!!!

Coffeelady on January 11, 2011 at 3:12 am

Thanks, Chris. Winds are starting to pick up here in Somerset a bit, as well.

Sadieville on January 11, 2011 at 3:13 am

Thanks Chris for your dedication to this blog. I appreciate you and those blog members who use their weather knowledge to assist folks like me who have no idea what all those weather maps mean.

I’m a snow lover, however, our ground has been white since December 1st…kinda over it already…I’m ready for sunshine, softball, and camping.

If we got the Big Daddy snow, I would have to giggle just a little.

lisa on January 11, 2011 at 3:13 am

Thanks Chris. I’m in Versailles and I’ll take all the snow I can get!

Sadieville on January 11, 2011 at 3:15 am

I’m in moderation H3II…
wrote a heart felt thank you too…

Sadieville on January 11, 2011 at 3:17 am

Oh…now it works…lol

Chris, thanks for your dedication to this blog!!!

bengalfan on January 11, 2011 at 3:25 am

chris i wish you made the weather..if so i know you wuld give us a lot os snow..but you only predict…..its my own fault..i hype myself on this blog to read.watch and start thinking bout big snows..heck im just thinking of half foot…but it just dont happen in cky

JodyW on January 11, 2011 at 3:26 am

Precip seems to be going well north of KY. I’m not buying anything much for the state out of this round. 🙁

Aaron C. on January 11, 2011 at 3:30 am

Me either. Not unless snow were to break out in Arkansas…

Don’t want to be pessimistic, just stating what I’m seeing too.

Wildcat40 on January 11, 2011 at 3:34 am

It won’t hit us until early morning, it is North of us now as Chris predicted. He looks to be spot on, you will get snow tomorrow unless you live in the southern counties, hello dusting. The humidity is about 57% in Lex, the dewpoint is at 13 degrees.

BubbaG on January 11, 2011 at 3:47 am

I think the flow will be more north and we will be on the low end. Usual suspects will be north and east KY that get more.

Rare I do not buy completely in, but not seeing higher end. Then again, a few inches is in CB’s range- just feel the local mets may have over-hyped.

Be nice to be wrong at get beyond a couple annoying inches 🙂

Todd on January 11, 2011 at 3:49 am

NWS says snow will be breaking out in central KY just after midnite! OK, I hope they are right, but I doubt we get an inch of snow out of this in Central KY! Lived here enough years to know the look of the radar! Fading & moving Neast of west KY!

tommy on January 11, 2011 at 3:56 am

hey folks looks like nky/ciny is finally getting some snow love again! winter storm warnings up heckk yea baby!!!!!!!

miss kate on January 11, 2011 at 3:58 am

todd, i think you are right. i am watching that radar keep moving north. it is going to have to hustle to get to central Ky by midnight!

Jon on January 11, 2011 at 4:22 am

The last few runs of the short range RUC model are showing a fairly good band of snow working into Kentucky around 11a.m. The RUC appears to be extending the moisture further south than the NAM and GFS. I also was reading on Accuweather that the low appears to be further south than expected and that it may tap some moisture from the storm on the east coast.
http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RUC&grid=255&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=01&model_dd=11&model_init_hh=03&fhour=12&parameter=CREF&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

ArkyArky on January 11, 2011 at 4:33 am

I am frustrated with the forecast from the news for this evening and thus am continually checking here for better information. I still am left wondering about the timing of this thing… Heading to bed, would love to wake up to white in the morning.

Linda on January 11, 2011 at 4:38 am

It is snowing 3 miles south of Mc Kee, at a pretty good cilp

mitch on January 11, 2011 at 4:46 am

thought the operational models pulled it further north actually. for you folks out east don’t be surprised if by dinnertime on Tuesday you have under an inch. dry slot, going above freezing, low track overhead a lot going against anyone southeast of lexington.

by the way the 00z gfs is possibile in my view for next tue/wed.

Chelle on January 11, 2011 at 4:48 am

it is TRYING to snow in Nicholasville, after I saw the Mc Kee comment I looked out and there are a few flakes falling, very few and far between but hey it’s something lol 🙂

Aaron C. on January 11, 2011 at 4:49 am

Go to bed and completely cover your entire body underneath a white blanket. When you wake up in the morning white will be the first thing you see! 😛

WeatherMiddlesboro on January 11, 2011 at 5:04 am

Its all good. I had 4″ of new snow this morning. Now have a total of 10″ on the ground. Guess I cant get it all. lol

nor'easter on January 11, 2011 at 5:35 am

How frustrating. It is 12:30 am. WWA begins in half an hour. Looking at radar, there isn’t a snowflake falling in Kentucky. They are way up in Ohio and Indiana.

Looks like again, we’ve been overhyped. Maybe by late Tuesday an inch may fall but it sure doesn’t look like it now. Especially living in a region with a prediction of 2-4″.

What a letdown.

Hope some of you get a blanket.

Ryan K on January 11, 2011 at 5:46 am

The precipitation shield is looking healthier each radar frame. Also keep in mind that ratios will likely be between 15-18:1, so low precipitable values can still result in moderate snow fall. Still think most areas fall within their forecasted range.

…That being said, wonder how quick the atmosphere can saturate, as does KH of Wave 3. At 12:45 the temperature in Louisville is 29 with a dew point of 16.

Jill on January 11, 2011 at 5:49 am

We’ve got a little snow falling in Anderson Co. (right outside of Frankfort). It’s so fine you can barely see it.

nor'easter on January 11, 2011 at 5:50 am

Hope you are right Ryan. Thanks for the update. Good luck out your way in the big city.

patty on January 11, 2011 at 2:49 am
Thanks for the update Chris!!! The winds are already howling here in Versailles!
Sadieville on January 11, 2011 at 3:04 am
Thanks Chris…your dedication to this blog is appreciated. I don’t post much but I read everyday. Thank you to all the regulars too. I appreciate your knowledge of weather. You are a huge asset to the blog. I have no idea how to read those weather maps, but I trust in your expertise to keep KY notified of upcoming weather events. I am a snow lover, however, our ground has been white since Dec 1st, with the exception of a couple of days…I am kinda over it already…I’m ready for sunshine, softball, and camping.
If we got a Big Daddy storm…I would still have to giggle just a little!!!
Coffeelady on January 11, 2011 at 3:12 am
Thanks, Chris. Winds are starting to pick up here in Somerset a bit, as well.
Sadieville on January 11, 2011 at 3:13 am
Thanks Chris for your dedication to this blog. I appreciate you and those blog members who use their weather knowledge to assist folks like me who have no idea what all those weather maps mean.
I’m a snow lover, however, our ground has been white since December 1st…kinda over it already…I’m ready for sunshine, softball, and camping.
If we got the Big Daddy snow, I would have to giggle just a little.
lisa on January 11, 2011 at 3:13 am
Thanks Chris. I’m in Versailles and I’ll take all the snow I can get!
Sadieville on January 11, 2011 at 3:15 am
I’m in moderation H3II…
wrote a heart felt thank you too…
Sadieville on January 11, 2011 at 3:17 am
Oh…now it works…lol
Chris, thanks for your dedication to this blog!!!
bengalfan on January 11, 2011 at 3:25 am
chris i wish you made the weather..if so i know you wuld give us a lot os snow..but you only predict…..its my own fault..i hype myself on this blog to read.watch and start thinking bout big snows..heck im just thinking of half foot…but it just dont happen in cky
JodyW on January 11, 2011 at 3:26 am
Precip seems to be going well north of KY. I’m not buying anything much for the state out of this round. 🙁
Aaron C. on January 11, 2011 at 3:30 am
Me either. Not unless snow were to break out in Arkansas…
Don’t want to be pessimistic, just stating what I’m seeing too.
Wildcat40 on January 11, 2011 at 3:34 am
It won’t hit us until early morning, it is North of us now as Chris predicted. He looks to be spot on, you will get snow tomorrow unless you live in the southern counties, hello dusting. The humidity is about 57% in Lex, the dewpoint is at 13 degrees.
BubbaG on January 11, 2011 at 3:47 am
I think the flow will be more north and we will be on the low end. Usual suspects will be north and east KY that get more.
Rare I do not buy completely in, but not seeing higher end. Then again, a few inches is in CB’s range- just feel the local mets may have over-hyped.
Be nice to be wrong at get beyond a couple annoying inches 🙂
Todd on January 11, 2011 at 3:49 am
NWS says snow will be breaking out in central KY just after midnite! OK, I hope they are right, but I doubt we get an inch of snow out of this in Central KY! Lived here enough years to know the look of the radar! Fading & moving Neast of west KY!
tommy on January 11, 2011 at 3:56 am
hey folks looks like nky/ciny is finally getting some snow love again! winter storm warnings up heckk yea baby!!!!!!!
miss kate on January 11, 2011 at 3:58 am
todd, i think you are right. i am watching that radar keep moving north. it is going to have to hustle to get to central Ky by midnight!
Jon on January 11, 2011 at 4:22 am
The last few runs of the short range RUC model are showing a fairly good band of snow working into Kentucky around 11a.m. The RUC appears to be extending the moisture further south than the NAM and GFS. I also was reading on Accuweather that the low appears to be further south than expected and that it may tap some moisture from the storm on the east coast.
http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RUC&grid=255&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=01&model_dd=11&model_init_hh=03&fhour=12&parameter=CREF&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false
ArkyArky on January 11, 2011 at 4:33 am
I am frustrated with the forecast from the news for this evening and thus am continually checking here for better information. I still am left wondering about the timing of this thing… Heading to bed, would love to wake up to white in the morning.
Linda on January 11, 2011 at 4:38 am
It is snowing 3 miles south of Mc Kee, at a pretty good cilp
mitch on January 11, 2011 at 4:46 am
thought the operational models pulled it further north actually. for you folks out east don’t be surprised if by dinnertime on Tuesday you have under an inch. dry slot, going above freezing, low track overhead a lot going against anyone southeast of lexington.
by the way the 00z gfs is possibile in my view for next tue/wed.
Chelle on January 11, 2011 at 4:48 am
it is TRYING to snow in Nicholasville, after I saw the Mc Kee comment I looked out and there are a few flakes falling, very few and far between but hey it’s something lol 🙂
Aaron C. on January 11, 2011 at 4:49 am
Go to bed and completely cover your entire body underneath a white blanket. When you wake up in the morning white will be the first thing you see! 😛
WeatherMiddlesboro on January 11, 2011 at 5:04 am
Its all good. I had 4″ of new snow this morning. Now have a total of 10″ on the ground. Guess I cant get it all. lol
nor'easter on January 11, 2011 at 5:35 am
How frustrating. It is 12:30 am. WWA begins in half an hour. Looking at radar, there isn’t a snowflake falling in Kentucky. They are way up in Ohio and Indiana.
Looks like again, we’ve been overhyped. Maybe by late Tuesday an inch may fall but it sure doesn’t look like it now. Especially living in a region with a prediction of 2-4″.
What a letdown.
Hope some of you get a blanket.
Ryan K on January 11, 2011 at 5:46 am
The precipitation shield is looking healthier each radar frame. Also keep in mind that ratios will likely be between 15-18:1, so low precipitable values can still result in moderate snow fall. Still think most areas fall within their forecasted range.
…That being said, wonder how quick the atmosphere can saturate, as does KH of Wave 3. At 12:45 the temperature in Louisville is 29 with a dew point of 16.
Jill on January 11, 2011 at 5:49 am
We’ve got a little snow falling in Anderson Co. (right outside of Frankfort). It’s so fine you can barely see it.
nor'easter on January 11, 2011 at 5:50 am
Hope you are right Ryan. Thanks for the update. Good luck out your way in the big city.

26 Comments

Follow Chris Bailey

Account Login

Weather Archives