Good Monday evening everyone. I promised to drop by with another update to show you the latest warnings and advisories that now blanket the entire region and I am doing just that. Here ya go…
Here is a brief breakdown of how it all plays out…
– Snow will develop late tonight into and overspread the state early Tuesday.
– Accumulations into Tuesday evening will range from 2″-4″ in the north to 1″-3″ in the southern half. It is in the south where some areas may be on the low end of the scale during the daylight hours tomorrow.
– Wraparound snows will kick in quickly Tuesday evening and continue through early Thursday. I am very impressed with this setup and it will likely put down some good snows… especially in the east. Central Ky should also pick up a couple more inches from this.
– Winds will crank up Tuesday night and Wednesday leading to blowing snows. Arctic temps will move in during this time and carry us into Friday.
I will try to update again later this evening so check back. Have a great evening and take care.
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Sorry I posed this like a minute before Chris came out with a new post, & I was hoping for some feedback from others on the site. I’ve kinda given up hope on this weather system producing anything significant so I want to look ahead, Chris has advertised a chance for a big artic outbreak in mid to late month but this is what the forecast discussion from Jackson says:
A BIT OF A PATTERN CHANGE UPCOMING AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL THROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP
THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
PERIOD OF MILDER WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AND
ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND.
BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON POPS FOR
SATURDAY AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINS OFF TO OUR WEST. I LIKE
THE IDEA OF A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND
(PER ECMWF)…SO KEPT POPS LOW THROUGH SUNDAY…THEN BROUGHT THE
BEST POPS IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE SYSTEM. THERE IS A WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SNOW AT THE ONSET ON SUNDAY…BUT THE MAJORITY
OF PRECIPITATION THIS TIME AROUND SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
WITH ZONAL FLOW…THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE…KEEPING
OUR WEATHER ACTIVE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
FORTUNATELY…WE SHOULD REMAIN MUCH MILDER…SETTING UP THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION THREAT AS RAIN. WE MAY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR A
MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT LATER NEXT WEEK…GIVEN THE
MILDER WEATHER AND ACTIVE STORM TRACK.
Just saying it doesn’t sound as promising down the road for winter lovers, or will this be “the quiet before the storm” It’s difficult to look too far down the road, but is everyone’s thinking that a deep freeze is still in the air??
First???
What will Corbin Get Tonight
What will Corbin Get Tonight
What will Corbin Get Tonight
What will Corbin Get Tonight
Thanks Chris, I’ll take that amount anytime!
Susan you were always superwoman,glad to hear from you.To bad the blog party never occurred it would have been interesting.On the food I will stop and buy the food you would not want my cooking lol,I breathe a little easier after each meal not so for my hubby.I will bring a safe bucket of Kfc orginal crispy and roasted and toasted.Rolo what would you bring???
Chris said for tommorrow on Wsaz that area wide should get the snow tomorrow.It looked like most of Ky
SWAMI nothing tonite, maybe a inch at best tomm.
ty CB.
Whats your 20 ! The nws in lou is going with the colder solution. Model run keep bouncing back and forth.
The current dew point is 13 in Louisville right now. Needs to move up 10-12 points within 6 hours. Low dew point will delay the snow start time, which = less snow.
Temp 31
Dew point 15
Hey Susan, good to hear from you! Glad you are still reading the blog.
I don’t post as much as I used to, but always read it.
Take care and enjoy the weather!
NWS in Charleston, Wv. and Wilmington, OH are also going with the colder solution. I don’t believe it’s going to be 40 or 50 like accuweather is saying. almost every met that I follow says colder.
need to have closer to 80% RH for precip to hit the ground. This is a concern.
biggest tip here is to wait a few days yesturday the cmc and gfs were both locked in for several runs on a snowstorm sunday. now a warmer solution today with the models. There is considerbale ensemble spread now as well.we could get either rain or snow depending on where that front stalls. I will say this the best potential for a widespread 6 inch snowstorm this season but a lot has to go right. It could just as easily thunder and rain followed by flurries and cold.
Mitch I totally agree. I was looking at the models for 2days straight and the GFS was showing a storm blowing up across the ohio valley. Now they have really let it go. But it’s expected it is the GFS. We will definitely see. Hope everything goes right.
In Atlanta still. Roads are a sheet of ice. The storm did dump about 4 inches of snow and a quarter of an inch of ice on top of that here in the metro area. To be honest though, I realy think its only bad b/c they have not treated the roads. They have power crews coming from all over to assist in outages that really didn’t happen, but they should have had plow crews come down here instead. They estimate over 1000 semis are sutck on metro freeways right now, mostly because they cant get the traction to get up any kind of exit ramp or slope. If this storm would have hit LEX or the ‘ville, it would not have been anything big. Of course many have 4wd ar AWD vehicles. My little Honda Ridgeline is a champ down here in this stuff. The people here just are not used to this at all. I was sure Atlanta got 1 or two ice events in a given winter season, but I must be mistaken. They sure do not have the infastructure like KY does to handle it! Makes me appreciate our road crews up home that much more! They really ARE the difference in a storm!
keep getting the ‘ol moderation mallett to the head today…
In Atlanta still. Roads are a sheet of ice. The storm did dump about 4 inches of snow and a quarter of an inch of ice on top of that here in the metro area. To be honest though, I realy think its only bad b/c they have not treated the roads. They have power crews coming from all over to assist in outages that really didn’t happen, but they should have had plow crews come down here instead. They estimate over 1000 semis are sutck on metro freeways right now, mostly because they cant get the traction to get up any kind of exit ramp or slope. If this storm would have hit LEX or the ‘ville, it would not have been anything big. Of course many have 4wd ar AWD vehicles. My little Honda Ridgeline is a champ down here in this stuff. The people here just are not used to this at all. I was sure Atlanta got 1 or two ice events in a given winter season, but I must be mistaken. They sure do not have the infastructure like KY does to handle it! Makes me appreciate our road crews up home that much more! They really ARE the difference in a storm!
I remember last year on Belski’s blog, he said that the temp & dew point needs at least a eight degree difference ideally.
In Atlanta still. Roads are a sheet of ice. The storm did dump about 4 inches of snow and a quarter of an inch of ice on top of that here in the metro area. I realy think its only bad b/c they have not treated the roads. They have power crews coming from all over to assist in outages that really didn’t happen, but they should have had plow crews come down here instead. They estimate over 1000 semis are stuck on metro freeways right now, mostly because they cant get the traction to get up any kind of exit ramp or slope. If this storm would have hit LEX or the ‘ville, it would not have been anything big. Of course many have 4wd ar AWD vehicles. My little Ridgeline is a champ down here in this stuff. The people here just are not used to this at all. I was sure Atlanta got 1 or two ice events in a given winter season, but I must be mistaken. They sure do not have the infastructure like KY does to handle it! Makes me appreciate our road crews up home that much more! They really ARE the difference in a storm!
Evening, all. Well Pulaski county missed the snow this morning. I am about to believe that we will miss round two, too. I hope not. I am really enjoying the snow. (Some of my co-workers think I am nuts!) It has just been so long since we have had more than one snow event. Hope to see more, at least before the winter is over.
Great, so we get bypassed by the storm and we enjoy virga……zzzzzzzzzz
Where has Shane and Tommy been lately? A few others MIA as well…
Missouri radar filling in nicely. Folks, this storm might over achieve, it has been the theme of the winter so far!
Not really…cold air holds less moisture…you can get snow at 50-55% RH.
Hey coffee lady–I need to come to somerset tomorrow from london for a dr. appt-would you care to post in the morning how things are there? thanks
that’s what happened in ATL last night a very heavy snow band moved through and the intensity of snow moistened the air quicker. They were able to see light snow when if the air had been saturated heavy snow would have been falling. In our case the snow will be lighter, will have watch to see if snow reaches the ground over southern indy in the next 2 hours. By the way I’ll be @ the office Wednesday, hope all is good.
My husband just came in and said it was beginning to snow in Clay County. JUST FLURRIES RIGHT NOW, BUT ATLEAST SOMETHING IS BEGINNING.
yea been wondering bout them as well BUBBA.
Hi Kandy, Just curious. Is it a dr’s appt or a little pampering?
Kandy, I will be glad to post in the AM and let you know how the roads are…will be up before 7, and at work before 8 so, I wll post as soon as I can.
One can only hope, Todd….one can only hope! 😉
Probably stuck in moderation
Do not know folks. I suspect the early part of the event may be sucked up in the atmosphere with the V word.
If we do not see action early in the morning, I expect the low end of CB’s map.
Just not feelin’ the snow love, but this could be due to all the itty bitty snows we have gotten so far. Besides the white Christmas, would much prefer nothing, if not enough to sleigh on or the other usual snow activities. Kind of sparse with 3″ snows.
A general dusting to 1″ should fall by midday Tuesday with less to more from south to north. Overall snow totals will be 1″-2″ with locally heavier amounts. Lets start looking at this next system! and hope the artic air stays here for the next round of moisture
The low has continued to shift north… wouldn’t be surprised to see an inch or less just south of Louisville. The biggest snow we got in Bardstown this year was two inches and I was in Puerto Rico.. Just always either too far north or too far south
Good evening one and all. Read this post alot but rarely engage with the typed word. I must say, as soon as the southeast low reaches and slows down off the atlantic coast it is going to act as a vacuum for the low that is coming across the Ohio Valley. I believe snow ratios will be 15-20 to 1 but for shorter duration. I reside in Louisville and obviously looking at the radar, this will be encompass the state of KY grossly but the snow amounts favor North Central and Eastern KY(north fringes). Have a great time tracking……
Point closer…
Temp 30
Dew point 15
Hey snownazi….what makes you think this? You must have some sorta small man syndrome and you probably only have a dusting to an inch in your pants!
Sort of my concern too. That’s way I plan on posting Temps & dew points tonight in Louisville.
That was really ugly! Moderate! Moderate! Where are you, CB?
That kind of remark doesn’t belong on a weather forum.
Even Jim Caldwell is backing off a tad. He shifted his min range to 3″ for most areas.
Jim is similar league of CB as far as being one of the good mets.
This looks to be a classic move in wrong direction low. I will be surprised if Lou. Gets an inch out of this one. Sat / Sun also will go north with little precip.
Dont know where that came from but that was kind of uncalled for…
the nam 18z was not that impressive concerning amount of snowfall in ky. Light snowfall during the daylight does not help.
What im talking about the snow
Well, I don’t usually say anything about comments people make here, but whoever posted that ugly one just tears it. People, this is a weather blog. Chris does this for US, and MOST of us here enjoy coming by to see what his thoughts are on weather systems-winter, spring, summer, and fall. Yes, most of us are snow lovers, and the possibility of a BIG one excites us. Chris’ blog has taught a lot of us a lot about weather and how to read maps and systems.
Chris does this because he cares, and we come here because we enjoy reading it and interacting with each other. If you are not here for that reason, please feel free to never come back again, and go cause trouble somewhere else. Comments like yours are not wanted nor welcomed here. Sorry Chris, I just had to say that.
Well, someone is going to get a good snow out of this thing. Just looks like it is going to be north of us….Chris, how about an update soon, if you can.
New Post!!!
What do I say to my 9 year old daughter who is asking me what a dusting in the pants means? You should be banned from this website and from the internet in general. You have no manners. You need to gettyup out of this blog!
honey it is for a dr appt and i wish i had a friend to go with me!
Give it up. You’re the one with the shrinkage.
Nate what is the temperature there?
here bubba under a winter storm warning 😀
winter storm warning here in covington 😀
14.0” on season could be 18-20 if this storm works out!
Mr. Expert,
Are you going to have a follow up post or article about this anytime soon? 🙂
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