Good Tuesday to one and all. For all you summer fans out there… Let’s do this. The warmest air of the summer, by far, is into the Commonwealth today and through the next few days. This leads us back into a pattern that turns stormy before the week is over.
Temps out there today hit the 80s across the entire state and may flirt with 90 in the west. These numbers increase a bit more for Wednesday with dry skies that will also feature a bit of smoke showing up from time to time.
With hurricane season now being upon is, we have to start watching for the possibilities that may be lurking. The National Hurricane Center is watching something off the southeastern coast that may pop over the next few days…
Here’s the satellite view of this region…
Back here in the Bluegrass state, we find the increasing threat for showers and storms to crank from Thursday into the start of the weekend. This is along and ahead of a cold front dropping in from the northwest…
A few strong storms will be possible and many of us can easily pick up 1″-2″ of rain. I know, I know… You’re shocked at this potential!!
Cooler and drier air looks to settle in for Sunday into Monday before more storms roll back in here. This animation shows the chance for a lot of storms developing from the middle of next week through the end of the run on June 17th…
Temps drop back to below normal levels with that type of a setup.
Several inches of rain are likely over the next 2 weeks, kicking off the summertime flash flood season.
In terms of temps, the EURO Ensembles have the big drop, but are also the most robust with a turnaround to above normal by mid-month…
The GFS Ensembles aren’t as enthusiastic about the above normal temps…
Regardless of temps, the one constant of the year is above normal rainfall. The latest EURO Weeklies continue to put our region in the bullseye of above normal rains all the way through the middle of July…
As I look at this summertime pattern, my concern for times of flash flooding is increased.
Make it a terrific Tuesday and take care.
With all of the above said, yesterday was a beautiful early Summer’s day without that much smoke. I’m hoping that we will have less and less chances of severe weather as the month gets closer to July.
I hope those EURO ensembles verify.
Me too Jeff.