Good Sunday afternoon everyone. Things continue to progress nicely toward our early week winter storm across the eastern half of the country. This storm will have a sizeable impact on our weather as we will see several days that feature accumulating snows across the region.
The first impact will come late tonight into Monday across southern Kentucky as a major winter storm across the deep south throws snow into these areas. The bulk of the heaviest snows will stay south into Tennessee… but a few inches will be possible for our border counties…
We will be watching the radar late tonight and early Tuesday to get a handle on just how far north this moisture is coming.
The next impact will be from upper level energy that will cruise eastward across the Ohio Valley from Monday night through Tuesday night. This will spawn another weak low pressure center over eastern Kentucky that rides northeastward. The heaviest snows will fall north of the track of the low which should leave most of our region in line for a light to moderate snowfall…
If you want to get that swath of heavy snow from Indy to Columbus to drop southward into our region… hope this low pressure tracks ends up a bit weaker and farther south. 
The Canadian Model has been showing this second low tracking across Tennessee into eastern West Virginia. If that is the case… the numbers on the above map would be dropped southward. By the way… there is a chance southeastern Ky gets in on a bit of a mix at times early Tuesday.
As our low goes by to the northeast Tuesday evening… backlash snows and snow showers will be likely through Wednesday night and early Thursday morning. This will likely drop some more light accumulations…
There you have it… my first call for snowfall maps. I will be watching the last minute trends and have updates this evening with updated snow maps.
Looks like the NWS offices are going to put out a Winter Weather Advisory late tonight into Monday for parts of southern and southeastern Kentucky. Good call.
Take care.
Select Page
ty LEGEND.
Couldn’t agree more with your call. Looks excellent. See how it goes now. Hate being between two systems – I am a snow fan – so it bites!
2nd. race 3 at GULF bled bad ran up trck from my info. stop badly and i figured as much.
busy week chris. thanks for your thoughts.
It appears the snow kentucky will be getting is just nuisance snow snow fall… well maybe the next time : (
i’m in clay co. so not exactly what i wanted to see, i want more!!! 🙁 if we can’t get a BIG snow, may as well be sunny and 80*!!! :P…maybe some deviation in the track will give us more snow!!! got my fingers crossed!! 🙂
Ah well, I wanted more in E-Town, but 2-4 would be good for the kiddos (that includes me) to play in, without making the hubby grumpy about driving, lol.
Thanks Chris!
(oh but..if a change comes that would bring more….well… I’ll deal with Mr. grumpy just fine 🙂 )
I was getting caught up in the potential for a “big” snow…oh well. I am in the 5″ max area if all the days worth max out. 🙁 Thanks for the update Chris.
Let’s see….Looks like around 4 – 9 inches all total, maybe more if track comes on in. Sorry Downers, looks pretty good to me. 🙂 Thanks Chris!
Well let’s see if I get the high end of the totals for my area + the 4-5″ on the ground with no melting = a good 12 to 13″!!! Probably won’t happen like that but wishful thinking and that never hurt anything. 🙂
I can’t believe those maps, 3″-6″ above and below Ky and 2″-6″ to our east. I just can’t understand? Oh well, thanks Chris for the update.. Can’t wait until I re-tire, and get to move somewhere real snowy for the winter!!!
so tim? I guess we will miss out on the big stuff, but it’s trending north and don’t that mean big snow? I dont get it.
What does this mean for [insert county]?
All you people in eastern Kentucky need to quit complaining about not getting what you consider a big one. You have all become spoiled with your 4-6 inch snows. I would love to get 4 inches for once here in Nelson county. We havent gotten over 2 inches from one storm this year and less than 10 inches total. Last year the biggest storm brought us 4 inches.
It means you are going to get “some” amount of snow this week 🙂
Having lived in Louisville my entire life, I fully expect to awaken on Tuesday to find not much. That’s not a knock on Chris, just pessimism at its worst.
As far as the weather goes, I’m noticing a trend that I’ll continue to watch the rest of the season. The northern branch and southern branch features do not want to phase until east of Kentucky. Thus we get storms for the east coast while Louiville, and Kentucky in general, are left out of the big party.
It also seems apparent that blocking will remain for the rest of the winter season. Unfortunately, it has been so strong that it’s forced the southern stream energy to the south.
We need an adjustment to the pattern before we can get excited. That’s just my view.
jackson office gives a good discussion about the concerns with snow tuesday out east.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=JKL&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
Jon, that nasty comment wasn’t called for!
Sorry! I will get more than 1-2″ for Monday. Thats laughable.
1-3, 1-3, 1-2….3-8″ for Monday through Thursday. I have got the upper end on every storm this year. So 8″ plus the 6″ I have already will mean 14″ on the ground at the same time. WOW!!!
And your point is?
It’s not just KY……Kansas City area just downgraded from WSW to WWA
We haven’t gotten over 2 inches in Shelbyville yet either. This will probably our biggest storm of the season so far.
Jon is right, 4 inches sounds fine to me.
Not to bad, I guess if we get the total of around 7 inches for Clay County, but still wish we could of got a foot or more. Thanks Chris for the update and all the hard work.
*gasp* “good discussion”…that’s not possible according to some here, haha.
Latest from Louisville:
.STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT…
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS…AN AREA OF SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL TENNESSEE MONDAY
NIGHT AND THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY ON
TUESDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND MUCH OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE BULK OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL VERY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WHILE THE SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE TUESDAY NIGHT…ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS
REGION…WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE
TIME PERIOD…THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE.
BASED ON THE LATEST FORECASTS…THE HEAVIEST SNOWS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA…MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 WHERE UP TO
4 INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ACROSS NORTHERN HALF
OF KENTUCKY…3-4 INCHES MAY FALL…WHILE 1-2 INCHES MAY FALL ACROSS
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ANY
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATING BEING ADJUSTED UP OR DOWN.
i remember back in 1993 there was this little storm that came up from texas and they se ky prediction of a light dusting, well guess what folks … we woke up to 23 1/2 inches of snow, shut down I-75, stores ran of food, complete chaos for 3 days … i hope this one doesn’t turn out like that.
I find this interesting coming out of the Ohio NWS.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT.
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT…SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD
THE OHIO VALLEY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE MAJORITY OF THIS
SNOW WILL BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BE SOUTHWEST OF OHIO THROUGH
DAYBREAK. BY DAYBREAK…THIS SNOW WILL QUICKLY BE SPREADING
NORTHEAST INTO OHIO.
AT THIS MOMENT IN TIME…SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOWFALL ARE EXPECTED…ENDING TUESDAY NIGHT.
I might be missing something here but they are saying there snow will be coming out of the Southwest. I think that is Central KY! Our Numbers based on that will be higher than currently forecast!
wel
I think all u BITHING should shut up. look what happen in ARIZONA YESTERDAY and all of us me included bitching bout snow.lol
a 9 year old shot in chest killed in this. put things in pERSPECTIVE PEOPLE.
that said WSW up for northern KY.
Hey the glass is still half full after this system moves through Wed.,we will still be a player. According to the nws the model solutions for this weekend system are trending wetter & colder. Keep YOUR HEAD HELD HIGH!
As has been discussed and is in the updates, the first wave will come from the southwest overnight into Monday and mainly a real issue for areas south of KY but then Monday night into Tuesday night its from another that will ride east but have the heaviest axis of snow on the northern side which unless things change will favor those areas. At the end of that they state “ending Tuesday night”, so that’s taking in both combined.
Not seeing how the d
no the PRCIP will fall north of the low as BAILEY SAID so why is that interesting. northern ky also under WSW.
First post went into moderation, trying again, first wave does come from southwest, but those totals as stated at the end are through Tuesday night, so they take in both.
I have a feeling to models will shift and the projections will change yet! Will be interesting to see if they do and if so I if it forces and change in snow totals!
Wishing for more here in Logan co too. I’m sitting on Tn border and the way all the forecasts are showing, the state line has a wall built to stop it. I’m gonna do my snow dance and pull it on in for all you snowaholics like me. Wish me luck!!!
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=KYZ092&warncounty=KYC117&firewxzone=KYZ092&local_place1=Independence+KY&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch
Wilmington on board
Well, we now know what Chris is thinking will happen….I am still hoping that the low will move a little further south and we get more, but, I will take it! You can’t win them all, I guess….thanks, Chris, looking forward to the next update….
Hey he is not a meoteroligist but he stayed at a Holiday Inn express last nigh, so he thinks he is one.There is one in Middlesboro, I think.
Call me crazy but radar is showing moisture streaking dead at Central Kentucky, to me it looks as if the first low will definately track north east toward W Virgina bringing snow to all of Kentucky way before Monday night. Our clouds in central Kentucky are going north northeast, I cant follow as to why snowfall forecast is for late Monday night. It is fun to speculate though, I do love this stuff even if I am wrong about it.
Call me overly optimistic. But, i think everyone is going to be pleasantly surprised when this is all over with Wednesday. This storm to the south…is still progressing north with moisture. Just at a slow pace. I think the totals will have to be adjusted thanks to nowcasting. Just my opinion. Im sure most at least hope that radar continues in a due NE track. Don’t give up hope on this being bigger. My gut tells me we get more than what is being called for. =-)
Chris, mitch, Shane, Vinny, Beau or anyone who may know…When you look at the radar returns it appears the two storms have already began to merge a bit. Are they going to split back up or what? I guess my real question is, how are these two storms going to have such little impact on KY. The radar looks impressive to my untrained eye.
I hope you guys are right. I would love to get more snow out of this system. If the two systems merge over KY does that mean we could get more snow than expected?
It does look like the sou. stream has moisture as far north as K.C.
I’m not sure if anyone here is familiar with Piers Corbyn, but he is an astrophysicist/meteorologist from London. He is pioneering forecasting based on the cycles of the sun and moon. He claims 85% accuracy and predicted back in May severe blocking would lead to very cold winters across the US and Europe. He’s even gone so far as to predict a mini ice age by 2035 based on the sun entering a period of very low activity.
I bring this man up because he said the storm moving the Midwest/south would outperform predictions. He was able to forecast the Christams blizzard two weeks out as well. Given the radar trends, it does appear the precip shields are merging when they weren’t expected to do so.
Just google Piers Corbyn and you can see what he has to say.
I am a little confused myself. I have friends coming in now for a meeting on Tuesday from TN. The weather folks there are saying it is going to be a huge snowstorm. So they are getting out tonight. They also told me the weather for Ky is coming in tonight per there forecasters. Anyone know anything about this?
If we got lucky enough for that to happen then we would all be getting 6″+!! We can all hope lol…
If the radar returns keep this northerly trend you would almost have to go to a now-casting scenario. The Low might be moving east but the precip is get pulled north fairly quickly. The models might be getting somewhat confused on what might be happening with these two storms systems. I might be wrong here and more than likely am but it’s something worth watching. Nashville was not expecting there precip too start till after midnight radar trends are saying something totally different.
the systems are merging! the precip shields are connecting in the plains! Looks like they will phase before hitting ky! chris bailey, can you verify this at all?
Got cut off. Anyhoo, not seeing how the discussion in that link is good as far as snow. Seems bleaker. At least CB is saying we should get two little snows.
Does this mean it will hit Ky early? I have a meeting I can not miss tomorrow afternoon in Lexington.
That southern stream of moisture is MASSIVE and has really blown up over the past few hours. The Northern edge is already near Nashville and yes, moisture from the southern storm has infiltrated southern missouri already, too. Until i see a sudden stop to the progression NE or a due east turn, im holding on to hope of this reaching kentucky and giving us our pleasant surprise!
It’s becoming clear that this snow event is going to be larger than originally expected. Central KY is going to get hammered!
I have to agree with this post. I think that the moisture shield is progressing quite well into tennessee. I think that Chris might adjust his numbers, but hey, he get paid to do this and I dont so what can I say.
I’ve been watching the radar all afternoon, and it’s begining to be harder to believe that a large portion of the precip shield associated with the southern storm won’t shift into central Ky. Even if the storm starts moving significantly more east rather than E/NE, seems like there’s healthy precip back into Ark that we could catch. Would love to hear Chris’, or wxman’s, or mitch’s take on this.
Sorry, but nothing is hitting the ground in Tennessee at the moment. Its all virga. There is a TON of dry air across TN this afternoon. Its going to take a while to saturate.
I don’t think you can make that statement yet. Just because the precip shields are overlapping doesn’t mean the systems are phasing. I hope you are right, but looks can be deceiving on the radar. Considering we’ve seen no tweets from Chris or special comments from the NWS on this issue, it may just be an interesting aside.
lol,,sounds like a marriage in the sky..will you take my leading edge and bring moisture with you in ky before we fall apart..Seriously, the storm does look impressive on the radar..
Was just about to ask how much of that was actually reaching the ground though. Looking at the observations it didn’t appear to be reaching the ground. Also, looking at the latest loop down toward Nashville and Chattanooga you can see the returns being cut back into which I guess helps depict the drier air and Morristown NWS noted in the Advisories for eastern TN that down sloping may become an issue too.
Some of you folks think you have a Dome..Look at this from memphis..
http://www.accuweather.com/us/radar/r1h/kmem/radar.asp
Looking for snow in Memphis.
Streaming Mobile Cam
http://www.myfoxmemphis.com/dpp/traffic/Follow_FOX13s_Road_Patrol_LIVE
The glass is half empty again
Sorry the guy stopped for dinner just as I posted.
He will go live again when he starts moving.
A good portion of the northern fringe is not reaching the ground.
Yeah we got 24F with a dew point of 10F right now! Until that dew point can get up near 20 the precip will have a hard time getting to the ground.
Well the radar looks good, but is probably a lot of virga…but it DOES help moisten the atmosphere. Maybe that could be a good thing…would love to see this thing overperform. but, will not be disappointed if it doesn’t. If anything should change, I am sure Chris will be tweeting and updating. He knows how impatient us “children” can be when it comes to snow… 😉
LOL.
Thats how it was when I lived there. We got 2 inches in the almost 6 yrs I was there. And it was gone the next day.
I just went to intellicast.com to look at the radar and it looks pretty massive…. Is this what you are calling virga? It looks like it moving NW. It’s just hard to believe we are only going to get a couple of inches out of that….
His children are getting restless !!!! ROFLLL
Well let me try this again.. I just got sent to moderation. A black hole where the messages never come back from. I just looked at the radar on intellicast.com and the snow coming our way looks massive. Is this virga? I really don’t understand how we are only going to get a couple of inches out of that.
this is true however the low tempature overnight in Kentucky will be at or near the dew point when that moisture reaches Kentucky.
looking more and more like a big snow maker in central and northern ky as the southern counties could get hit with a mix to start things out around noon tomorrow. any thoughts???
I lived in the Arkansas Delta for 3 years… we got about 2 inches a couple times, and each time the locals brought up the nightmare ice storms and snows from before. It can get bad around there, and when it does, it’s REALLY paralyzing.
there is no merger taking place as the secondary low has yet to develop..that being said..it could develop earlier and pull some of the moisture from the gulf low which has been hinted at..any actual merger will take place on the east coast
I don’t think he was referring to it as being good in that way and more on how the discussion itself was.
Moisture inching northward, as usual. Whether virga, snow, or ice, it is creeping northward toward us. They always do. 🙂
this kid is on pins and needles!! lol, i’ve beein on here off and all day monitoring the weather situation. i would love to see a ’93 storm, but will take what comes! 😀 i am in no way weather savy, so i depend on cb first and foremost, and respect the opinions of everyone on here second. let’s keep our fingers crossed, we may end up pleasantly suprised :D….
Been watching the time-lapse radar. The first system is definitely inching northward more than predicted. Looks like there will be more Kentucky counties than the southern ones that get in on this system. Looking great!
it’s too cold to mix man…my goodness where do you people come up with this stuff.
Sorry to disappoint all the optimists here. The system moving up from the gulf will only be enough to saturate the air before the second systems scrapes by to the north producing around 2-3″ for most of KY. The air can’t become saturated quickly enough for this to be a major storm for central kentucky.
I swear…between you and Tim,
I have ruined my keyboard…
Thanks for the laugh, good analogy!
gosh the poor people in miss and alabama are getting hit with an ice storm …. so many wrecks the police and ambulances can’t get to them all; even Auburn cancelled all football championship activites there … i hope the ice stays way south of us!!!
Wow. sounds like you enjoyed that.
thanks for the tidbit, but only when cb puts his stamp of approval on that will i believe it! we are optimistic and will be so until otherwise noted by cb…thanks anyway, your opinion is duely noted! 😛
I’d like a foot of snow, but not going to happen.
Didn’t he already? Given what he’s said in this update anyway.
that is a Goode thing
looking at the satellite radar, the storm looks like it is breaking apart when it is getting into TN … anyone notice that???
NSFY, Memphis is reporting snow with a temp. of 30* and a dew point of 15*. Humidity is 55%
Somerset is at 22* with a dew point of 16* and the humidity is 74%. The air in ky, at least by those numbers, is already saturated more than Memphis and it’s snowing there? Help a curious weather lover out- it doesnt make sense to me.
Chris Bailey’s latest tweet….
“RUC model is trying it’s best to bring some heavier snow into southern Ky late tonight.” 🙂
Everyone relax. The moisture will be in place for this to put more on the ground than forecast. I will be shocked if Chris does not increase his snow totals at least a little for much of the affected area. Hold on tight, folks, this bad boy is going to be fun.
ther northen edge not reaching ground, main precip further s/se than what it look like on radar.
NO SNOW FOR U spot on for whole area se and south with first sytem.
radar returns are decieving.
All you weather wise guys-what do you think about having to take a trip to Atlanta Friday morning? I know its too early to know anything specific but what would your feelings be if your wife had a trip planned that way?
Why are people not understanding that the storm south of us is not what will be impacting KY directly. Our system is over the plains. keep your eye on those radar trends
WYMT-TV Jim Caldwell just put his map out. Southern KY will receive 5-7″ and Harlan, Letcher, and Pike Counties will see 7-10″ from Monday am through Wednesday am.
Interstates and main roadways should all be clear and fine by Friday. I’d still play it by ear and check road conditions.
What? From the southeast tonight Jesse..
As far as central Ky. goes,the snows this season have been over acheivers. So you never know about this one either. After this one is over, it’s gonna be fun watching the models for next weekend. Winter storm possible for Ky.
Check Chris Baileys latest tweet…
RUC model is trying it’s best to bring some heavier snow into southern Ky late tonight.
BAILEY posted a tweet RUC trying to move more precip in S KY.
love JIM at WYMT but if u watch him he gives same thing BAILEY gives, just watch him of a nite and compare his snow totals to BAILEYS there exacty the same.lol
i have been telling them that all day about the depoints in one of the chat rooms but some people just do not get it. dew point has to be so high before it will snow. a lot of what we see on raar is misleading, is not hitting the ground, virga storm!!!!!!!!
Why do people not understand tonight and tomorrows snow has zilch to do with the plains. That is tommorrow night and tuesday.
THE WEEKEND STORM WILL PROBABLY BE A ICE STORM FOR CENTRAL KY AREA. I HOPE I AM WRONG.
would have to agree with that..Jim is a nice fellow..Met him a couple of times and he’s a very funny guy..
The downers return LOL. While clueless, their comments are good to look back on after we get dumped on with snow. They always try to claim they figured it all along.
Anyway, snow will be flying soon. Dewpoints rising as moisture streams this way. Downers will very very sad…again.
check out these forcast totals, pretty nice!!! http://www.wkyt.com/blogs/easternkentuckyweather/Lets_Get_Tracking_113175064.html
I agree 100%
My dew point has went from 6 to 14 in 3 hrs here in Middlesboro.
So if someone simply states that the precip someone is seeing being closer is mostly not reaching the ground, then one is being a “downer”????
I have noticed in the past where radar looked G R E A T and looked as if it should be precipitating heavily but nothing was falling for hours, then once the precip on radar was almost gone, it started falling….. It was 3 degrees this morning so they air is very dry….We shall see what happens………The reason I’m posting this is because almost every time I make a comment, it generates a brand new post from Chris.
Looking at the radar returns, I SEE no way that this storm misses us…
But living in KY the past 12 years, I KNOW somehow it will… 😉
**********the***********
I should have used spell check
Looks like the systems may be trying to phase earlier than thought…. This may just be the radar enticing people, but radar returns are starting to look impressive. Hopefully we’ll see a last minute shift to the north. The slightest tweak in the track of the GoM low would result in much higher totals for S/SE KY. Any thoughts…mitch, ryan, chris???
Maybe this will be the “DUSTING” of 2011!! HeHe Just kiddin’!
MAde it to ATLANTA at about 830pm. Starting to snow at a pretty good slip. A little freezing rain is mixed in with it too. EVERYTHING here is closing or has already closed. LOTS of flights cancelled too…. IF you are traveling this way by plane, best of luck! They are diverting everything to other airports. Will be an interesting next few days. Chris, I will get some pics of the weather down here to ya…
By the way, has anyone looked into the storm for next weekend? This thing Could be very impressive….
*clip. Need to proofread better
Funny thing Jim Caldwell put out a first call last night.
RUC model is trying it’s best to bring some heavier snow into southern Ky late tonight.
Thats exactly CB’s tweet.
Thanks Nate!! I wanna see the pics!
There is just a batch of very dry air across TN this evening. We should see quick saturation occur over the next few hours across west-central TN and get into Nashville and points east later tonight.
That’s because they know what they are talking about 🙂
Nope. A Downer takes Chris forecast every time, cuts it to pieces telling trained weathermen why their forecast is wrong, then after the big snow falls claims they were right all along. Look back over the posts yourself. 🙂
Live snow webcam chase out of Atlanta, Ga. Snow just started and they are seeing extremely heavy snow.
Where do we need the Dew points for it to start snowing? Thanks in advance!!!
I could be wrong but I think it’s high teens into the twenties.
Wow! How come he’s so optimistic?!?
Its inching closer to E-Town…. How am I supposed to sleep?!!?