Good afternoon everyone. First off… a big thanks to each of you for all the snow and road reports from the past few days. The snows last night into this morning were nothing short of impressive. I mentioned yesterday that it was a great combo of seeing the 850mb thermal min arriving at the same time we had a nice piece of energy rotating through here. Sure enough… several inches of snow was the end result.

Most areas had 1″-3″ of snow with several spots seeing 4″ or more inches… especially in the east and southeast. The temps this afternoon are doing what we thought and hanging out in the teens with a wind chill around 0 to go along with blowing and drifting snow. I don’t think too many people would argue the past the weather outside has been on the harsh side this weekend. If not… we will throw single digit temps your way tonight for added measure.

This is a sign of things to come as the first half of next week is likely to bring several inches of snow to the much of the region.  This should come in three stages… from the southern low Monday into Monday evening… then from the second low working across the area Monday night and Tuesday… and finally from wraparound snows and snow showers Tuesday night through Wednesday.

The first prong of the snow attack on Monday is the one I am having the most issue with in determining how much snow could fall. It all depends on how far north the moisture gets. Right now, it looks to be into the southern half of the state especially. This can drop 1″-3″ Monday across our southern counties with lighter amounts the farther north you go. If the low comes a bit farther north Monday… then the totals can bump up a bit farther north.

The second part of our storm will be a low pressure developing and working across the eastern Ohio Valley Monday night into Tuesday. This is likely to be a pretty juicy system with the models spitting out better than a quarter of an inch of liquid. That should easily work out to 2″-4″ of snow with the potential for a bit more for some areas.

The wraparound snows and snow showers from Tuesday night into Wednesday can drop another 1″-3″.

As you can see… over a 3 day period… many areas should pick up a nice snowfall out of all this. Will your area be near the low end of the range or the high end? We will figure all that out later tonight into Sunday.

The models have pretty much converged on the double low scenario we put out there several days ago. A word of caution for those who follow the GFS… don’t! It is all alone in it’s weak scenario right now.

I continue to like what the Canadian model is showing…



Those two lows would then get together for another big storm for the east coast. You can see this very well on the European Model…



I am still holding off on an Upgrade, but will probably pull the trigger later this evening. I hope to have a first call map out later tonight as well.

By the way… I haven’t mentioned the possible system for next weekend that can bring another big round of wintry weather to the region. We have to track them one at a time and this first one gets most of my attention for now.

I will try to update later this evening so check back. Take care.