Good Friday evening folks. I wanted to give a quickie update on the snows out there tonight and Saturday and the early week storm. The models are now looking VERY much like what we have been outlining as a likely scenario.
Snows have been common across the state today with parts of southern Kentucky picking up a solid 2″-4″ of snow today. The rest of the state has been seeing totals from a coating to an inch or so. A vigorous disturbance will work in from the northwest tonight and early Saturday increasing the snows for everyone. This system is arriving about the same time as the 850mb thermal min does and that is usually a good indicator of some good snows. A general 1″-2″ should fall tonight into Saturday with locally higher amounts in the east. Snow showers and flurries should be common later Saturday into Saturday evening with temps struggling to get much above 20.
Watch the radar light up with snow as this system moves in…
The storm early next week continues to progress nicely toward the ideas we have laid out over the past few days and I am growing more confident on my thoughts. The first low will develop Sunday across Texas and scoot to the east through the deep south. This happens as most of the upper level energy is still well to the west into the plains states. That setup usually will pull moisture farther north and northwest toward the developing upper level low to our west. This might mean the snow shield from storm number one gets drawn up into Kentucky Monday into Monday night before a new low develops ahead of the midwestern energy and moves through here.
The GFS Ensembles mean continues to show this…
You notice it does indeed pull snow from the first storm into much of the state Monday. It then shows the second low passing into the eastern Ohio Valley leading to an increase in snows for Tuesday into Wednesday. Here is how much liquid precip the map above is showing during this time…
That is better than a half inch of liquid pushing into southern and eastern Kentucky with much of the rest of the state in the .25″-.50″ range. Not too shabby if that happens.
Want to see model agreement on the second low scenario? Check it out…
Canadian Ensembles
European Ensembles
The trend is a friend of our ideas… and it should be a fun weekend to track this storm. Full update will come your way later tonight. Take care.
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1st >?
Snow dome in the central KY area hopefully will close up in the next couple of hours?
Thanks for the update Chris
CB, thank you for taking the time to update.
You are correct…will be exciting to see what happens….I will try to wait patiently…thanks for your constant effort towards this great site!!
Thanks for the update Chris. Forecast sounds promising. Still snowing in Clay
yippee!!! more snow!
I said in the last blog I would get 6-8″ off this storm. 50-75 precip….
Snowing in nicholasville
looking better..Now if we can get the the system to move more north west as our friend rolo would say we could see a little old schooler…Can’t wait for tomorrow runs of the models..got a feeling will be interesting..
Looks like a nice band of light snow heading right toward Central KY now!
Snow falling at a good clip in Frankfort. It is crazy how the NWS drops the ball on the events Chris nails down! 1 or 2 inches seem very possible now!
well we managed to get 3-5″ down here with this storm..and if we get .50 to .75 with the next storm..and it will be much colder so snow ratio’s will be much higher as well..so as of right now you and I my friend have done quite well in the snowfall department.
There are only a few snowflakes on the ground in Shelbyville. Hopefully we can get a lot with this next system.
It looks like all the major models are coming into agreement concerning Monday – Wednesdays event. The only one left to come into the fold is the short term model the nam. I hope it verifies all the other med to long range models. Then the only question left will be the amount of moisture that the secondary low will produce. MORE SNOT!
1.) Snow is snow! If it falls from the sky frozen, crystallized and white I’ll take it in any amount!
2.) I absolutely love reading and being a part of this blog… even Rolo-derby.
3.) I leave for Snowshoe, WV on Monday morning… all wheel drive, extra fuel and shovel on the top rack, and snow straps just-in-case!
I’m stoked!
OK, maybe 1 inch will fall in Frankfort! The radar freeked when i said we might get 2 in.? .50 in. current total! Chris still the only forecaster that came even close!
16 in. total for winter so far 🙂
That’s what it looked and felt like falling…..dippin dots. It was pouring here in south woodford.
I still hate the NCAA. If they were consistent in their rulings I could understand but…
5 Ohio St players get to play in a bowl but must sit out first 5 games next year.
Cam Newtown gets to play…
Selby takes money from agent and is now playing for Kansas…
I would list more but this is a weather blog.
On more thing… CB, what do you think of the Reds signing of Edgar Renteria?
Generally, as far as accumulations, how much does .50 – .75 produce?
Normal scale is 10-1 ratio….so .75 would be 7.5″ of snow…… .5 would be 5″ If its colder then you can get higher ratios
check out the states that are smoothered by winter storm watches. that dark blue color is all across the south.
1.Texas
2.Arkansas
3.Tennessee
4.Louisiana
5.Mississippi
6.Alabama
7.Georgia
8.Oklahoma
((((((((((….KENTUCKY…)))))) will hopefully be added to that list as well!!!
and winter storm watches are just a couple counties away from northern Florida as well…GONNA BE A WILD WEEKEND IN THE SOUTH…
http://www.weather.gov/
Don’t forget The Pearl of Tennessee lying to the NCAA. And Renteria is a good vet/budget signing for the Reds. They can’t afford much more. Oh yeah…the weather. If nothing comes of this storm early next week I expect CB to sub. teach for me a couple of days because I’m already expecting at least a little time off 😉
DON’T FORGET THE NCAA ALLOWED KANSAS TO PAY BACK THAT MONEY FOR SELBY OUT OF HIS SCHOLARSHIP, BECAUSE THEY SAID” SELBY IS MORE THAN LIKELY ONE AND DONE AND WOULD NOT USE ALL FOUR YEARS OF HIS TUITION MONEY” THEY RULED KANTER PERMANANTLY INELIGIBLE BECAUSE HE IS ON UK’S TEAM PLAIN AND SIMPLE. THAT BEING SAID I HATE THEM AS MUCH OR MORE THAN YOU DO. OH YEAH ONTO THE WEATHER. THINGS KINDA QUIET ON THE HOME FRONT HERE IN FLOYD CO. BUT RADAR IS LOOKING GOOD OUT TO WEST NW AND HEADING THIS WAY
Check this out for the 15th– http://wxweb.meteostar.com/leads_images/Models/GFS/CON/CP/large/surface/2011010718_CON_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_180.gif
(Hope I did that link right. sorry if I messed it up,lol)
Ok, so I’m new to this so, can someone explain that specifically to me?
And the one for Jan 21st looks better than that one. Does that mean there is potential for another storm around Jan 21-23rd?
Sorry, lol… I am really curious about all this stuff. Sorry for being a newbie pest.lol
Louisville folks might get a quick burst of heavy snow. Check out the radar! Frankfort area looks to miss out on this!
Could be 1in. in about a 30 min. period if you can get in line on this band! 🙂
Just came home from Lex via Richmond Rd and Old Richmond Road (25S) and the road was covered but if you are reasonable you are okay but the major hazard was the blowing snow which cut visibility to nil. 75 S was slow but open across the Clay’s Ferry bridge. Going to be an interesting week ahead!
this is the big storm we should be watching the gfs and ecmwf have different set-ups but both agree on a winter storm with snow, ice and rain anytime from the 15-18th.
yup very intense snow squall band moving into the ville. these snow bursts may train over the same areas. very similar to a event in bowling green last winter where 3 inches fell in 2 hours in a very small area over metro bowling green.
This from the NWS:(look at the last paragraph!!!!)
SUNDAY – WEDNESDAY…
WE/LL START OFF NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW. THE
FIRST SNOW CHANCES WILL ARRIVE FOR EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL KY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE GULF PUSHING MOISTURE AS
FAR NORTH AS TN MAYBE SOUTH CENTRAL KY. MED RANGE MODELS STILL
DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH.
HOWEVER…THERE IS STILL ENOUGH SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN 30-40% POPS FOR
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KY.
THEN BEHIND THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM…AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RACING
ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL QUICKLY ENTER THE AREA DEVELOPING A WEAK SFC
REFLECTION. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING AREA WIDE LIGHT SNOW MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WED. THE BEST ACCUMS WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUES WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE AND HIGHER SNOW RATIOS DURING
THIS PERIOD.
OVERALL…TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS FROM SUN-WED ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1
TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMS EXPECTED DOWN IN THE LAKE
CUMBERLAND REGION. SHOULD EITHER OF THESE SYSTEMS TAKE A SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT TRACK…THESE TOTALS COULD INCREASE OR DECREASE. STAY
TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES AND WEATHER.GOV FOR MORE INFO!
TEMPS SHOULD STAY RIGHT AROUND OR BELOW FREEZING FOR HIGHS SUN-WED.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. IN ADDITION…MONDAY AND
WED AFTERNOONS COULD BE QUITE BREEZING AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE
TROUGH. WINTER LOOKS ALIVE AND WELL WITH COLD BLUSTERY SNOWY DAYS
AHEAD.
THURSDAY – FRIDAY…
THE BELOW FREEZING TEMPS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR THURS AND FRIDAY AS A
MODIFIED ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
KEEP US DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS.
BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD…BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS AGREE
THAT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS BREWING FOR NEXT WEEKEND. IT COULD BE
ANOTHER WINTRY WEATHER MAKER WITH SNOW/ICE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT STORM TRACK. STAY TUNED!
ok don’t know how that frowny-face got in there, but I wanted a smiley, LOL.
🙂
there…
this narrow snow band from the northern portions of louisville into shelbyville means business snowfall rates could be an inch per hour with the heavy snow bursts moving over the same regions. even see some higher radar returns could be a clap of thunder in some of this.
Guys, I have been watching the radar on & off all day long and I’m telling you, Lexington has a dome!!! Every time it looked like a descent snow band moving our way, it would just fade away or split us..!!!
I’m not making it up folks, it’s the strangest thing I’ve ever seen….lol
It’s snowing pretty good in Shelbyville. 64 is covered in Louisville.
Maybe a snow dome but enough tonight to cause alot of accidents in Lex!
chris’s tweet says 2-3″ in ashland, with THUNDERSNOW !! WOW…
It’s all those golfers out with those big umbrellas!!!
People are pushing cars uphill on east bound 264 in st Matthews area. Horrible roads our there. Traffic really backed up.
FREE ENES!
OH MY G!!!!! It’s absofreakinglutely POURING snow in northwest Lex!!!!!
I love how the NWS has ignored the heavy snow band tonight! Great job guys, eggnog has not warn off yet, I guess.
MarkLex… yes it is! Heaviest I have seen in the Masterson Station area all season!
Snow quick 1.5 in an hour in st matthews
You’re welcome…!
I must have pissd the Snow Gods off with my “dome” comment… 😉
Very light snow and maybe 0.5″ in north Madison. Not feeling the snow luv.
thnaks lou folks for the reports. please pass them along to nws. winter weather advisories up now for the low, bluegrass and eastern ky regions.
quick 1/2 inch so far in versailles, moderate snow with covered roads.
Folks in Lexington get ready to get hammered by that band moving in. Just finished passing through Louisville and laid down ~2in in an hour or so with large flakes and a heavy rate. Enjoy but be careful out there, our roads are absolutely awful.
now pushing an inch quickly.
chris’s prefered cmc model on the early next week coming into line with the other models. the big storm is next weekend not Tuesday next week. still a light snowfall tuesday is better than nothing.
Snow is really coming down now in Pikeville.I think Chris has the sweet spot to get all the snow LOL.
I am so glad you guys are seeing some snow.
Snow band running from S. IN thru Louisville to Lexington seems to continue to pull moisture in. Looks like the I-64 corridor could be a pretty sweet spot for snow this evening.
In J’town (Louisville) we got around 1.5″ from the first segment of the heavy snow band. It does appear anything behind it will be lighter at this time.
I live in Louisville, ky and they have a piece of Gene Snyder closed! Be careful out there people!
1/2 inch in gtown…. we will probably see a little more before this is through. What do we get Monday-Wednesday?
Snow continues to look more impressive WNW of Louisville. Hoping that the band continues to intensify or hold together as it moves through the area (Hey, I really wanna sled, sorry if you have to be out in it)
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