Good Friday evening folks. I wanted to give a quickie update on the snows out there tonight and Saturday and the early week storm. The models are now looking VERY much like what we have been outlining as a likely scenario.

Snows have been common across the state today with parts of southern Kentucky picking up a solid 2″-4″ of snow today. The rest of the state has been seeing totals from a coating to an inch or so. A vigorous disturbance will work in from the northwest tonight and early Saturday increasing the snows for everyone. This system is arriving about the same time as the 850mb thermal min does and that is usually a good indicator of some good snows. A general 1″-2″ should fall tonight into Saturday with locally higher amounts in the east. Snow showers and flurries should be common later Saturday into Saturday evening with temps struggling to get much above 20.

Watch the radar light up with snow as this system moves in…



The storm early next week continues to progress nicely toward the ideas we have laid out over the past few days and I am growing more confident on my thoughts. The first low will develop Sunday across Texas and scoot to the east through the deep south. This happens as most of the upper level energy is still well to the west into the plains states. That setup usually will pull moisture farther north and northwest toward the developing upper level low to our west. This might mean the snow shield from storm number one gets drawn up into Kentucky Monday into Monday night before a new low develops ahead of the midwestern energy and moves through here.

The GFS Ensembles mean continues to show this…



You notice it does indeed pull snow from the first storm into much of the state Monday. It then shows the second low passing into the eastern Ohio Valley leading to an increase in snows for Tuesday into Wednesday. Here is how much liquid precip the map above is showing during this time…



That is better than a half inch of liquid pushing into southern and eastern Kentucky with much of the rest of the state in the .25″-.50″ range. Not too shabby if that happens.

Want to see model agreement on the second low scenario? Check it out…

Canadian Ensembles



European Ensembles


The trend is a friend of our ideas… and it should be a fun weekend to track this storm. Full update will come your way later tonight. Take care.