Good Tuesday, folks. The record cold of the past few days has been getting all the weather attention around here and rightfully so. This has been an amazing run of chilly air for the end of July. The month as a whole has been characterized by an incredible amount of rain. So, it’s appropriate we send the month out on a wet note.
Showers and storms will slowly increase today from west to east. Temps will recover toward 80 degrees in many areas before the rain arrives. You can track the action on regional radar…
Showers and storms will become more widespread tonight into Wednesday as a wave of low pressure scoots eastward across the state. Locally heavy rains will be likely and some areas may pick up 1″-3″ of rain during this time. These numbers will help push some cities toward the wettest July on record.
The pattern for the end of the week into the weekend is looking more and more like it wants to produce showers and thunderstorms. The from Thursday through Sunday may end up looking something like this…
Rounds of showers and storms may dive in from the northwest as we are sandwiched between the heat across the southwest and the real cool to the northeast. That doesn’t mean you will have storms every single day… just pointing out the overall pattern.
The GFS suggests that setup continues for the next few weeks…
A word of caution about the GFS… It’s a brand new version of the model, so we will need to see how it performs. I don’t like what it’s doing with the current system rolling eastward across the region. Remember all those who would defend the old GFS by saying it was superior to the European Model? If it was so good… why did NOAA acknowledge it was bad, scrap it and try to mimic what the parameters of the Euro? 😉
Another big blast of cool air is showing up at some point next week. That will be the first full week of August and the latest monthly forecast from the CFS shows more of the same…
That’s a lot of cool air across the lower 48. Of course, it’s offset by some major warmth across Canada. Will this trend carry us through fall and into winter? We will be talking more about that later this week. 🙂
Have a great Tuesday and take care.
I agree that the euro was better than the old gfs model. But not that significantly. Specially during the winter because both of them s@$k.
It has been warmer in Interior Alaska than here the past few days. If that model you have posted is correct for August look for that trend to continue. Perhaps many days of 50’s for lows and 70’s for highs. I remember in Early to Mid August of 2004 we had a day with full sunshine where the High was 67 and Low was 49.
Looks like this morning will be the last chilly one for a little while, at least until the next potential cool blast next week. The Kentucky Mesonet shows one overnight temp of 54 (in southeastern KY).
Also an overnight low of 53 on the Tennessee Plateau and a 56 near Nashville. Western KY and TN were not as cool overnight due to cloud cover – so no radiational cooling.
Good to save on the AC bill. However, while nice hearing the “tree frogs” singing at night through the open window, I can’t take cold as well as others; had to partially close the window and get a warm comforter for the bed despite it being July.
The anticipated big wall of t-showers is moving in from the west. Now that I’m on my lunch break, better go grab the umbrella in the car while it’s still dry ;).
What if we saw that kind of CFS during the winter?
We’d probably think the model was broken!
Test
test #2
It appeared as if the sky was on fire this morning briefly. The sunrise was very orange, red like. It was awesome in the metro.
From the looks of the latest radar no way 1 to 3 inches of rain falls, fading away as it enters central KY, maybe it is suppose to refire later?
Not complaining we have had our share of rain if this under achieves!