Good evening to one and all. The overall forecast for the next few days appears to be on track as we get waves of light snow to blow across the state. The snowfall forecast from earlier looks pretty good as a couple of strong disturbances cruise through here Friday into Saturday.

The U shape look I have with the highest snow totals should work out as a strong clipper works into western and southern Kentucky early Friday with the next system taking more of an aim on eastern Kentucky Friday night and Saturday.

Looking ahead to the storm for early next week… I have nothing else to add to what I think should happen with the setup I am seeing.

– The first storm rolling out of the southwest should track across the deep south before slowing down once to the Carolinas.

– A strong upper level low will be cruising through midwest by Monday and should force another low pressure to develop and head into the Tennessee Valley late Monday into Tuesday.

– It is this upper level low and surface low that will try to capture the low on the southeast coast and consolidate all the energy into one storm riding up the east coast.

– The computer models are expected to bounce back and forth with how all this plays out. It’s what they do from this far out of a storm.

– I am still not sure of the full impact this setup will have on our weather. That said… I feel pretty good this will bring accumulating snows to the entire state from late Monday through Wednesday. Will it be a few inches or a lot? I can’t answer that at this point.

The 18z run of the GFS and GFS Ensembles were trending back toward the idea we have been talking about. Though not fully there yet… it’s a step in the right direction.

GFS Ensembles


That is the “average” of what many individual ensemble runs are showing so everything gets smoothed out. But… you can clearly see what i’m talking about with the dual low setup.

The 18z DGEX run continues to show a decent hit around here as well. The model spits out more than a half inch of liquid precipitation from this storm…



I don’t know what others are saying about next week and I am doing my best not to check other forecasts to avoid being swayed in one direction or another. All I can do is check out the models and watch what they are doing then compare them to what the look of the actual pattern is suggesting and give you my thoughts. Those thoughts continue to be the models are not matching what the pattern is telling me. I just hope the pattern isn’t lying to me.

A Full update on the light snows of the next few days and next week’s storm will come your way later tonight. Have a good one and take care.