Good Saturday and welcome to Labor Day Weekend. Our below normal temps continue as our much drier than normal pattern continues, as well. We need to get some rain in here and the upcoming week looks to give us the best chance in a while.
It’s also a pattern that delivers another big blast or two of fall temps.
A few areas will start out this Saturday with temps back into the upper 40s, getting within shouting distance of another record. Temps this afternoon range from the middle 70s to the low 80s across the state with partly sunny skies and awesome conditions.
Upper 40s and low 50s start Sunday with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s. There’s the chance for a shower or storm to go up in the southeast before the day is finished.
Labor Day features a mix of sun and clouds with upper 70s and low 80s back in town. The threat for a shower or storm to go up is there, especially in the afternoon and evening in the south and east.
Our big upper level system then flexes into our part of the world Tuesday through the rest of the week. This carves out another MASSIVE trough in the eastern US…
Showers and some thunderstorms fire up Tuesday into Wednesday with another round coming later Friday or into the start of next weekend…
Some much-needed rains will fall in our region during this time.
Temps will continue to run well below normal with the chance for a day or two to see highs failing to hit 70. This is another HUGE swing below normal for an extended period of time…
We may very well be near record lows once again by the end of the week into next weekend.
This pattern eases some later next weekend into the following week, but the pattern may still have some kind of upper level system moving in. We may also see something trying to develop in the tropics…
As we look ahead to Meteorological Fall, the latest CFS shows below normal temps for September…
A little closer to normal for October…
And back to a little below normal for November…
I’m strongly considering a fast start to winter this year… Just in case you’re wondering.
Enjoy your Saturday and take care.
Thanks Chris. Bring on Fall and Winter, but Not a Severe Winter, Just an Interesting Winter.
Wasn’t there a winter (1989) I think, when it was horribly cold. Started EARLY and lasted all through Dec… then Jan/Feb warmed up. I wonder what phase we were in during that time?
Mark, Here’s the Weather Pattern back in the Winter 1989. I’ll try to Find which ENSO We were In at that Time. Here’s the 1989 Winter Weather Description Link :
https://www.google.com/search?q=winter+weather+pattern+1989+kentucky&sca_esv=82ceebf1275fd2c3&sxsrf=AE3TifN8SJxfLjWG6ytLkh8hIX6AY9Fzvw%3A1756564304176&source=hp&ei=UAuzaKrGCMe0wN4Pw8XUqAM&iflsig=AOw8s4IAAAAAaLMZYO-lOkhZ_IJhyF1Qw5839rr_uc35&oq=Winter+weather+pattern+1989&gs_lp=Egdnd3Mtd2l6IhtXaW50ZXIgd2VhdGhlciBwYXR0ZXJuIDE5ODkqAggAMgUQIRigATIFECEYoAEyBRAhGKABMgUQIRigAUi3-QFQAFiftAFwAHgAkAEAmAGJAaABzhWqAQUxNS4xMrgBAcgBAPgBAZgCG6ACzBbCAhEQLhiABBixAxjRAxiDARjHAcICCxAAGIAEGLEDGIMBwgIOEC4YgAQYsQMY0QMYxwHCAggQABiABBixA8ICDhAuGIAEGLEDGIMBGIoFwgIFEAAYgATCAgsQLhiABBjRAxjHAcICCBAuGIAEGLEDwgIOEAAYgAQYsQMYgwEYigXCAgsQLhiABBixAxjUAsICCxAuGIAEGMcBGK8BwgILEAAYgAQYsQMYyQPCAgsQABiABBiSAxiKBcICCBAuGIAEGOUEwgIHEAAYgAQYCsICBhAAGBYYHpgDAJIHBDkuMTigB6fKAbIHBDkuMTi4B8wWwgcIMC40LjIyLjHIB2Y&sclient=gws-wiz
Mark, The Fall and Winter 1989 Was a Strong ENSO La Nina Phase.
Long-term models are unreliable for winter.
One Exception that I Remember well, and So Does ( Winter Lover ) was in the Autumn 1976, NOAA Came out with their Outlook and it Read ” A Colder, Drier Fall and Winter ( 1976 – 77 “. ) They Were Completely Accurate in their Long Range Forecast.
Winter 1976 -77 link :
https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=a28d6dbe7e7fd7e0&sxsrf=AE3TifNqP6FMn4qoRYbRlrA00lnyvqlLBw:1756568056177&q=Fall+and+winter+weather+1976+77+in+kentucky+today&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwi0pYz47bKPAxWG4MkDHff5ETEQ1QJ6BAgrEAE&biw=1093&bih=479&dpr=1.25
NOAA’S Outlook For ( SON ) 2025 :
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1
NOAA’S Outlook ( DJF ) 2025 -26 :
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=4
We Shall See How This All Plays Out on March 2026 ?