Good Thursday everyone. We are getting set for several rounds of light snow and snow showers that will be rolling on through over the next few days. The big questions is… is this only a small preview of what’s to come early next week? That is certainly a possibility as we continue to watch the models coming into better agreement on a possible big eastern U.S. winter storm.
Let’s talk about the period ahead of us before looking into next week. A series of weak systems will be diving southeastward through the region from this evening through Friday and into early Saturday. Periods of light snow and snow showers will accompany each of these, hard to time, disturbances. These can lay down light accumulations and the first one should be moving though later this evening and overnight. We would then see a couple more roaming through here from Friday into Saturday. The strongest of the bunch may move through late Friday night and Saturday morning.
Pinpointing accumulations will be difficult since some of the snows will come in streaks… especially across central and western Kentucky. That said.. here is a rough first call for the snow that falls through Saturday…
The heaviest snows will fall across the eastern half of the state with southeastern Ky doing it’s usual thing in picking up the highest totals. Slick travel is a good bet during these rounds of light snow the next few days.
High temps Friday into Saturday will be down into the middle 20s for the most part. Winds will be rather gusty making it feel even colder.
That brings us to the possible storm for early next week. Many of the models are trending toward a solution we talked about a few days ago with one low into the Tennessee Valley and a stronger storm moving up the east coast. The Canadian Model has been the steadiest of the bunch in showing this scenario playing out and the other models are playing a game of follow the leader right now.
Here is the latest run of the Canadian…
The GFS has been going this direction in recent runs and the latest run continued that trend… albeit a bit slower with the evolution of the storm…
If those tracks verified… and it is still a pretty big IF since we are 4-5 days away… they would put down several inches of snow across our part of the world.
Just for fun… here is the GFS snowfall forecast through next Tuesday…
Let me caution you… that is only a snapshot of what one run of one model is saying and will change many times between now and early next week.
Some random thoughts on all this…
– I like seeing the models going toward something we pointed out as a possibility more than a week ago. That said… this thing is nowhere near being a slam dunk.
– The overall weather pattern is strongly suggesting a storm roll out of the southwest into the deep south then turn the corner up the east coast. It is also supporting a weaker low into the Tennessee Valley at the same time.
– The European Model is the lone holdout on showing such a big storm… but it is going in that direction with each passing run. The current run even brings several inches of snow into southern Kentucky. Look for this model to come in line at some point today or Friday. At least, I think it will.
– Whether we get a lot of snow or a little bit of snow from this storm… periods of light snow look likely for the middle and end of next week to go along with a shot of arctic air.
– Please don’t go running around saying your friendly weather dude is forecasting a snowstorm early next week. I am only saying the pattern is favorable for a winter storm in the eastern half of the country and that it could have a big impact around here. Oh… you can tell them we may upgrade to Winter Storm Threat at some point soon.
More updates will be coming your way later today so please check back. Have a great Thursday and take care.
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All I can say is WOW! Thanks so much for your hard work, Chris. Looks like you are going to have some very long days and nights ahead of you if this all comes true.
Hi Chris… thanks for the updates. I, for one, will be sitting right here with you during the long days ahead if this storm pans out. Lets hope it does.
Wow! What a southern solution!!! If the Canadian model run beats out GFS. You can add to some of those GFS totals. Some models are suggesting the low tracking along MS gulf coast. The Snow Superbowl! Gulf track VS Tenn track. Who will win?
We have family in central west virgina….I think we need to take a road trip!! Lexington looks pretty good too.
Now Chris, didn’t you know you were predicting the snowpocolypse? 😉
When we were getting the decent storm two weeks ago we couldn’t get Charleston NWS to issue anything even during the event and now with the clippers they’ve already issued WWA from Jackson and Charleston over 12 hours in advance. LOL
well let’s hope this storm misses us, the weather around here can change in the blink of an eye … and they really missed last night’s prediction … 1 to 2″ of snow for Corbin, woke up this morning and there wasn’t jack squat on the ground, just a bunch of frozen dog turds laying around!!!!
Chris, your snowfall total maps have looked the same all winter long. Wva gets the best totals and SE KY as well. Why is this always the case??
When all models are in agreement,that is when I will become excited.
subscribe please
Chris, your snowfall total maps have looked the same all winter long. Wva gets the best totals and SE KY as well. Why is this always the case??
I really hope that we manage to avoid the heavy snowfall in SEKy this time around. It’s been a long time since we had a full week of school around here and I’m already sick to death of snow. That said, Chris is the most accurate meteorologist in the area. Those Accuweather folks couldn’t forecast rain during a hurricane.
The map for tonight-Saturday looks to be pretty accurate to me. I’d actually be shocked though if the Bluegrass region even picks up an inch from it, but EKY could easily pick up a couple inches.
I think a lot of people who want a big snow next week will be disappointed though.
I’ve got a weather buddy that lives in the ATL and he’s even getting excited about Winter! Snow all the way to Georgia! La Nina!! (Although, I admit that the El Nino Winters we have with 60s and 70s frequently are more favorable to me).
trust the EURO right now, the EURO is ur friend at this point.
r
RS Louisville – Got your snow shovel ready???
I just got this in my email:
Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
401 AM EST THU JAN 6 2011
…LIGHT SNOW TO AFFECT FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE…
.A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SWEEPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS…WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-061715-
/O.NEW.KJKL.WW.Y.0001.110107T0000Z-110107T1700Z/
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…FLEMINGSBURG…MOUNT STERLING…
OWINGSVILLE…MOREHEAD…IRVINE…STANTON…FRENCHBURG…
MOUNT VERNON…MCKEE…SOMERSET…LONDON…MONTICELLO…
WHITLEY CITY…CORBIN…WILLIAMSBURG…BARBOURVILLE…
MIDDLESBORO…PINEVILLE…HARLAN…SANDY HOOK…WEST LIBERTY…
PAINTSVILLE…CAMPTON…SALYERSVILLE…PRESTONSBURG…
BEATTYVILLE…JACKSON…HINDMAN…BOONEVILLE…HAZARD…
MANCHESTER…HYDEN…WHITESBURG…INEZ…PIKEVILLE
401 AM EST THU JAN 6 2011
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON EST FRIDAY…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO NOON EST FRIDAY.
* SNOW WILL FIRST BEGIN TO FALL BY MID TO LATE EVENING…WITH THE
BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FALLING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 10 AM ON
FRIDAY.
* MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW…WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA
BORDERS.
* THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FROM SNOW ACCUMULATING ON ROADWAYS
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING…AFFECTING THE
MORNING COMMUTE ON FRIDAY.
Next week as stands, looks like a “similar” set-up of 1993. We got lots of snow and super cold temps, while states to the south/south east got some snow, but mainly a mix and ice.
Be interesting if everything holds steady. 1993 did, since recall folks talking about it at work and others saying it was still days away- no worry. We had to shut our facility down the next week for almost two days to help allocate power to the city. I had a much smaller driveway then 🙁
Yes I do but its getting pretty dusty…
Thanks, Chris, and good morning everyone! I can just feel the excitement buiding for a possible snow first of the week! I love reading the speculations. Now, we just have to wait and see.
Snowcat….I know what you mean. We are under the same WWA for tonight/tomorrow. Right now, we have sunny skies, as the clouds have backed off a little bit. Temp is 25, (because the clouds did NOT back off last night.)
Chris, you had better get some rest, if these model runs stay consistant and come into a good agreement. And BubbaG, I agree with you…I remember the shutdown. Glad we have a kerosene heater!
Wow, hoping we will be hit!!
Driving to Middlesboro from E-Town this Saturday– whatr the roads gonna look like?
Hmmm…thinkin maybe I need to go get one…?
Yayyy!!!! More snow!
Thank you, Chris!
Hey, new to this blog– new to Elizabethtown,KY too.
In everyone’s opinion, how does CB’s accuracy compare to Wave3’s KH?
hope it does, love to see a foot of snow
you will learn as time goes, that NOBODY has the accuracy that CB does! I like KH & BG from Wave-3. But, they still tend to play it more conservative over there. Sometimes, they’re right on the money. But, other times, they’ve been off the mark. CB has about a 90% success rate on his “final call” snow maps! Take that to the bank. So, when you see his “first call” maps, it’s just a rough estimate. late tonight he will put out a “final call” map.
Chris Bailey is the best weatherman in the world, you’ll never get your forecast from anywhere else, Enjoy!
I see our Wave-3 buddies in Louisville are going with this being a SOUTHERN storm & only getting maybe 2″ out of this entire system Monday/Tuesday. I’m hoping once again, they are wrong! I really believe that we all are going to be pleasantly surprised at the snowfall put down by the storm. The bluegrass will be very, very WHITE AND COLD when it’s all over with mid-week!
sometyhing to look at as far as next week big storm possibilities is to ur SW.
look at the moisture hammering in out in the SW corner of the US.
folks this sign of a majior duty storm with ALOT of BIG TIME moisture for the storm next week. not seen that alot in past few winters that for sure.
On the way to taking my kids to school this morning I happened to see a pretty reddish sky and to weather-loving people like me that means some excitement lol……not sure if anyone else is realizing this but the setup we’re seeing looks an awful lot like the storm in 1993….I’m not getting my hopes up just sayin……
I couldn’t agree more and this winter the atmosphere is able to turn a mole hill into a mountain so I am getting excited…..hoping for the twin to 1993. What are you thinking in terms of storm track because at the present it looks like we are a bullseye 🙂
Next week looks great! I’ve been running around telling everyone that Chris Bailey is forecasting a snowstorm for next week! Yippee!
Glad you’re on here. KH does good. However, we talk about things a week before anyone else says a peep. During a big event, close to 400 post a day and where sleep is over rated. Amen!
Really? Hoping to see -30 degree weather, crippling snows deep enough to shut down interstates, brown-outs, and have the potential to be deadly?? Every time you folks wish for a foot or more of snow you should realize you’re wishing for folks to go without power and to possibly die because they can’t get medical attention.
moderation is no fun…any idea why some posts are sent to never never land and other aren’t?
I’m sorry if I offend anyone with this post, but I don’t understand why so many here wish huge snow totals on others. Wishing for a blizzard the likes of the ’93 blizzard or a foot or more of snow is wishing a lot of misery on folks. That is more than dangerous weather, it’s crippling. Most of us living here in SE Ky have to drive some dicey roads and we have an ifrastructure that is unreliable in good weather. I don’t know about the rest of you, but if I can’t get to work I don’t get paid. Wishing for snow like we had in ’93 is foolish to the extreme. Again, I’m sorry if anyone takes offense. I guess I need to quit reading the comments and just pay attention to Chris’ forecasts.
I don’t think anyone wishes for people to be without power or for someone to die, just like tornado chasers hope to see a tornado, they don’t wish for it to go right through a town and kill people. We are just weather enthusiast that wish for lots of snow.
I do not wish those things on anyone and didn’t mention sub zero temperatures, only the snow. In the last storm we saw close to a foot of snow without any power outages or deaths related to the weather. The electric companies have worked very hard cutting trees and limbs that would jeopardize power so I think we will see fewer and fewer outages and fewer people without heat. I do not like the extreme cold or the things that severe temperatures bring but do LOVE snow and can’t apologize for that. Hate to have offended you but I don’t comment on things that I don’t have something nice to say about and for the sake of peace on this message board thats a public forum, my opinion is all I’m sharing. Thanks for yours.
I couldn’t have said it better myself and sorry to have made this topic into an argument.
Bailey said not to do that,,haha, but then he turned around and said to tell friends that we may soon go into THREAT mode…come on Bailey…that is like holding a big fat juicy hamburger to a fat guy like me and telling me to jump and try to get it.
I would take your advice and just read what Chris has to say, Jerry. Almost the entire blog is full of SNOW lovers/ weather enthusiasts. None of us want anyone to suffer, or lose money due to storms. In a perfect world we could all have our foot plus of snow and have no power outages/loss of work, to go with it. Hopefully, you won’t have to endure that. But, none of us can apologize for our love of snow. Have a good wk end.
Not offended here. Takes much more than that. To answer your question “why we want snow”. I do snow removal. So, snow is my paycheck. Did you think about that one? We love weather and prepare others to get prepared. See a rhythm now?
I think sometimes you may leave out a letter in your email address, at least I’ve done that before. I guess we just all have to take a turn. It sure is frustrating though!
If there were a “like” button i would click it right now!!! Lol…
Hmmm … big snow next Tuesday. I won’t mind getting snowed in at home on my birthday.
Bud.. I hate to break it to you, but this is a weather blog. What do you expect to read on a weather blog? Do you expect everybody to come in and say, “I hate weather. I wish it was cloudy and 60 every single day.”? It’s not going to happen. Do people on sports blogs write, “I hope every game this season is a tie and there’s no excitement.”? If you are looking for somebody who hates storms… you’re in the wrong place. I hope it snows axle-high to a ferris wheel.
I actually tend to believe that the big snow swath is going to hit TN and the Carolinas…and not KY next week.
please give us factual details why you believe Tn and Carolinas will get the snow,not ky…Debbie Downers are so tiresome….
Folks this system next week is not set in stone. Still way to much uncertainty. I understand it is fun to speculate, but anyone giving any sort of predictions at this point is only guessing. We need to wait a few more days and then maybe we will have a idea. In the mean time enjoy the little disturbance that will come through tonight/ tomorrow.
CB keeps saying an artic blast coming, but look at long range forecasts and they show nothing like that … it does show lows getting in to the high teens and 20’s …. what does he look at that the other’s don’t ????
Hey Bubba
Are you talking about the super storm of Mar 1993? I was living in Brevard NC then and I think we had 18 inches of snow. It was a complete blizzard. I think Knoxville got 24 inches out of that; I think some places in South KY and East KY got 30 inches, but Lexington got six inches because there was a very sharp cut off from east to west. I think Louisville got almost nothing from that storm. Lexington and Louisville did much better with the Snow storms in 1994, 1996, and 1998.
We all know that GFS map will be pink colors by the time it all goes down. 🙂
Why stop at TN and the Carolinas? Why not just tend to think it will go even farther south than that?
I would love for it to come a ’93 blizzard. I learned my lesson from the one in ’93, mother nature is going to do what she wants to do and when she wants to do it. I was without electric for 9 days so since that time I have had a fireplace installed, gotten a Coleman cookstove, keep supplies of candles, flashlights, batteries, playing cards, boardgames, food, water, etc. So many families never spend quality time together anymore and this is a good opportunity to reconnect with your family.
I agree!
Guess I’ll call you for snow removal, LOL. Do ya come to E-Town?
No snowlover wishes for anybody to be hurt or lose money– its only that we still see with childrens eyes the magical qualities and fun of snow!
But Sheesh– shame on you if you love any fast food whatsoever, because you are contributing to the heath problems and death of millions of people!! Not to mention they have heart attacks and lose their jobs and can’t get paid.–
Just sayin’… ;D
OK, well for starters people are WAY too harsh on the GFS model. It’s doing great this year. Second, NAM is backing it up with the storm on the Gulf coast as of the 12Z run. Third, the pattern off the Atlantic coast favors a southern track. Fourth, when was the last time a storm went from Louisiana due north? Want me to keep going?
Absolutely. Last power outage we had, we built a 1000 piece Lego set together with our 3 kids by candlelight. We even groaned when the lights came back on because it was so intimate and joyful and we were having so much fun. (We turned them off for the next 2 hours until we finished) Do you realize the ‘quiet’ that surrounds you when everything is off? Humans spend an eternity surrounded by white noise, and we can’t even hear each other anymore..It even made me see the argument of my pentecostal inlaws about not having a TV and how the family can be so much closer to each other without it. Not that we got rid of it, mind you… (LOL.) But now we choose to turn it off and spend quality time. Sorry to get ‘preachy’, lol.
I agree!
interesting reading here .. check out the link:
http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc.asp?DiscussionCode=LMK&StateCode=KY&SafeCityName=Lexington
Ahhh good, I don’t sleep when there is promise of snow anyway.
For one here is the GFS numerical info for point Danville.
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KDVK
Need a afternoon update,,do you think the snowy preview tonight, early morning for Lexington/Richmond will be anything? ….
Yeah, I like KH. But Christmastime he was a downer on E-Town getting ‘just a dusting’ when we got much more than that.
I was unsure of his accuracy for E-Town after that…seems they are focused primarily on Louisville and leave ETown out often…if they ever mention us at all.
But, then again… I don’t know if CB can give a good answer for E-Town either since we are a bit away from Lousiville..??
sorry i am not up on all the language, but what does this mean? thanks for your help!!
Next week storm a bust. Going to far south.
some of you debbie downers are hilarious…supposed to stay south yes? maybe but last time it was supposed to go that way and we got buried….it’s still a ways out, good god.
The late weekend storm looking more and more impressive! I just heard on TWC that Atlanta and birmingham are facing a CRIPPLING ICE STorm!!! As the storm moves east north east with snow speading north into KY sunday/monday!!
And I just heard the dead bird/fish ordeal is being caused by COLD. Kinda eerie!! Something straight out of a sci-fi movie. “Day after Tomorrow”!!!
Just remember this when you wish for something like that: The ’93 storm was responsible for over 300 deaths in the US and Cuba. I understand enjoying snow, but to wish for something like that to happen…
As of now south east ky/east Tn. Has the best chance of heavy snow sun-wed.
I wanted to clarify–I know you didn’t mean to wish for the deaths, just the snow. After reading my post it sounds like I think you’re wishing for someone to die, sorry about that.
i have also heard fireworks and i have also heard a storm caused a washing machine effect ?
Oh. My. Gosh.
I enjoy huge waves for surfing too, does that mean I am bad because tsunamis kill thousands?
I understand being mournful and respectful over a sad situation, but my goodness! Is this how you live your life? Afraid of everything in life that has beauty because sometimes there are tragedies from it???
Ok, I’m done. Way too stressful to talk to you foreboding, downer types.
ETown, you completely misunderstand what I am saying. I am not saying that you shouldn’t enjoy snow. I am saying that wishing for a blizzard like that of ’93 is foolish. I’m not dogging anyone for wanting some snow, but to WISH for a blizzard that bad? Do you understand the difference? Six inches of snow won’t hurt anyone, but in this area we received over 30″ of snow in that blizzard. Enjoy your snow, enjoy surfing. As for my “type,” I’m practical enough to know the difference between a few inches of snow and a blizzard, and I’ll be one of those who have to go out in order to deliver oxygen, medical supplies, food and water to anyone affected by such a blizzard.
I would love to see that snow move a little farther west so we could get some snow in Louisville this year. Every snow “storm” has missed us by 50 miles to the north, south, or east. Does anyone in EKY mind sharing any snow with us? lol