Good Thursday everyone. We are getting set for several rounds of light snow and snow showers that will be rolling on through over the next few days. The big questions is… is this only a small preview of what’s to come early next week? That is certainly a possibility as we continue to watch the models coming into better agreement on a possible big eastern U.S. winter storm.

Let’s talk about the period ahead of us before looking into next week. A series of weak systems will be diving southeastward through the region from this evening through Friday and into early Saturday. Periods of light snow and snow showers will accompany each of these, hard to time, disturbances. These can lay down light accumulations and the first one should be moving though later this evening and overnight. We would then see a couple more roaming through here from Friday into Saturday. The strongest of the bunch may move through late Friday night and Saturday morning.

Pinpointing accumulations will be difficult since some of the snows will come in streaks… especially across central and western Kentucky. That said.. here is a rough first call for the snow that falls through Saturday…



The heaviest snows will fall across the eastern half of the state with southeastern Ky doing it’s usual thing in picking up the highest totals. Slick travel is a good bet during these rounds of light snow the next few days.

High temps Friday into Saturday will be down into the middle 20s for the most part. Winds will be rather gusty making it feel even colder.

That brings us to the possible storm for early next week. Many of the models are trending toward a solution we talked about a few days ago with one low into the Tennessee Valley and a stronger storm moving up the east coast. The Canadian Model has been the steadiest of the bunch in showing this scenario playing out and the other models are playing a game of follow the leader right now.

Here is the latest run of the Canadian…


The GFS has been going this direction in recent runs and the latest run continued that trend… albeit a bit slower with the evolution of the storm…



If those tracks verified… and it is still a pretty big IF since we are 4-5 days away… they would put down several inches of snow across our part of the world.

Just for fun… here is the GFS snowfall forecast through next Tuesday…



Let me caution you… that is only a snapshot of what one run of one model is saying and will change many times between now and early next week.

Some random thoughts on all this…

– I like seeing the models going toward something we pointed out as a possibility more than a week ago. That said… this thing is nowhere near being a slam dunk.

– The overall weather pattern is strongly suggesting a storm roll out of the southwest into the deep south then turn the corner up the east coast. It is also supporting a weaker low into the Tennessee Valley at the same time.

– The European Model is the lone holdout on showing such a big storm… but it is going in that direction with each passing run. The current run even brings several inches of snow into southern Kentucky. Look for this model to come in line at some point today or Friday. At least, I think it will.

– Whether we get a lot of snow or a little bit of snow from this storm… periods of light snow look likely for the middle and end of next week to go along with a shot of arctic air.

– Please don’t go running around saying your friendly weather dude is forecasting a snowstorm early next week. I am only saying the pattern is favorable for a winter storm in the eastern half of the country and that it could have a big impact around here. Oh… you can tell them we may upgrade to Winter Storm Threat at some point soon.

More updates will be coming your way later today so please check back. Have a great Thursday and take care.