Good Thursday to one and all. With a fresh brand of brisk fall air pushing into the region, it has me thinking of the cold season that’s just about upon us. I’m wondering if we can get things off and running on an earlier than normal note? Hmm

Let’s begin with the short-term as temps this morning hit the low and middle 40s with afternoon highs mainly in the 60s. Skies are awesome.

Clear skies tonight may allow for temps to hit the upper 30s in some of the coldest valleys. The WRF is likely too cold, but it gives us a pretty good idea that some upper 30s can show up by Friday morning…

Temps from there hit the upper 60s and low 70s for highs on Friday then range from the upper 60s to middle 70s this weekend, with the west being warmest.

A big storm system will be spinning along the east coast in the coming days and may have a weak system dropping into it from the northwest. That has the chance to spawn a shower or two around. From there, we will watch the next system dropping in from the northwest later in the week.

I continue to focus on the pattern for the end of October and into the first part of November. The setup is one that may feature ridging across the western half of North America, allowing for troughs to dig into the eastern half of the country.

The EURO Weeklies see this better and better as we get closer. This is for the final week of October…

The GFS Extended is seeing something similar…

We keep that around into early November…

 

The EURO Weeklies go all the way out into the middle of November. The signal isn’t as strong, but still there…

With the colder look, the potential for early season flakes is certainly there in November. Notice the increased snow on the high ground of the Appalachian Mountains and west…

That suggests a cold northwest wind flow setting up with these troughs.

The GFS Weeklies only go through November 11th, but have a similar look…

Interesting.

Have a great day and take care.