Good Saturday everyone and Happy New Year. I wish nothing but the best for each of you as we begin 2011. What a way to ring in a brand spanking new year as showers and thunderstorms are working through today. This follows a little rest from the cold and snow over the past few days. I hope you enjoyed it as a harsh stretch of winter weather is ahead for much of January.

We will break that down here in a bit. In the short term… it’s soggy! A strong cold front is blowing across the state today with widespread rain and some embedded thunderstorms. The storms early today will be NOTHING like what areas to our south and west had to deal with Friday. A rash of deadly tornadoes ravaged much of Missouri, Arkansas and Mississippi to end the year.

Today’s rains will be heavy at times with many areas pushing an inch or better of rainfall before all is said and done. This can cause some local high water issues and you can track the action here…





The rains will wind down later today from west to east as colder air moves in. There could be a period of snow flurries later tonight in the east as the cold air swoops in. Highs Sunday will generally run in the 30s under partly sunny skies.

I have been priming you guys for what I think is ahead of us in January… a very harsh stretch of winter. The things I am seeing can become memorable for much of the country as all signs are pointing toward some bitter shots of arctic air to go along with many snow and storm threats.

I have talked about how the models are going to struggle beyond 4 or 5 days and that has certainly been the case with recent runs. The European Model has been especially bad of late as energy back across the southwestern states really screws up what the model shows because it has no idea how to handle it. It’s not like the other models are going to be much better with details. That said… we can get some general ideas of what all is going on next week and beyond.

First up should be a clipper heading across the Great Lakes Tuesday and Tuesday night. Most of the moisture will pass us by to the north, but the Canadian and GFS Ensembles are showing the chance for a little light snow around here.

GFS Ensembles


That should be a decent shot of cold coming in for Wednesday.

There is then agreement from the models with a more potent clipper diving in from the northwest Thursday or Friday. This would have a better shot at some snow around here as it will have more moisture to work with and has a big blast of arctic air behind it for next weekend. The question with this is… will some southern stream energy eject out of the southwest to team up with this push of arctic air? That is possible… but we should see the streams stay just separate enough. The Canadian Model is a close call…



This is the beginning of the period we outlined for the possibility of a big winter storm somewhere across the eastern US. I don’t think what the above maps show would be the only chance of that happening as energy hanging back in the southwest may not fully eject out until sometime next weekend or into early the following week.

As far as the arctic express is concerned… it is about to leave the station and head south for a prolonged visit to much of the U.S. of A. The signals have been showing up for a while now for a MAJOR blast of cold coming our way for mid month. Now the computer models are picking up on the overall idea of this happening. If you wanna see what arctic high pressure looks like… check out just how high the pressures are on the Canadian Model for Monday, January 10th…



Yes that is a 1071mb arctic high showing up in northwestern Canada with a 1053mb high across the western states. Again… I am showing you this as an illustration of where the pattern is going for the middle and end of the month in terms of arctic air. Timing and details will change… but the overall theme will remain the same. Now… you wanna see what temps a MAJOR arctic high pressure can bring to the states? Here is a look at the GFS surface temps for the 16th day of January…



WOW!!! That is showing -50 air temps across the northern rockies and plains states with sub 0 air surging our way. Again… I am only showing that to give you an idea of what the pattern is capable of in the coming weeks.

It should be fun to see how the month plays out.

Happy New Year and take care.