Good Thursday, everyone. It’s the rare combo of a Winter Storm ALERT and a Winter Storm THREAT at the same time. Our Winter Storm ALERT is for the snowmaker moving in this evening through the first half of Friday. The Winter Storm THREAT is the nearly identical snowmaker moving in Saturday afternoon and evening.

All of this leads us into a brutally cold setup from Saturday night through Monday.

It’s a harsh period of winter weather so let’s get after it…

WINTER STORM ALERT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING

  • Low pressure dives southeastward from Missouri into Tennessee.
  • That track has a band of healthy snows along and to the track of the low.
  • A widespread 2″-5″ snowfall looks likely in the corridor I’ve been highlighting.
  • We will be seeing a very sharp cutoff on the southern edge of the accumulating snow shield that’s oriented from northwest to southeast.
  • That said, we may see a small southward adjustment to this system through the day.
  • Many roads will become snow covered tonight into Friday morning.
  • Snow Days for days. (I’ll show myself out)

Here’s the Latest Call for Snowfall which is the same as the First Call…

The various forecast models are pretty amped up with the snowfall potential with this system…

I’m hoping for a very broad Winter Weather Advisory with a more concentrated Winter Storm Warning within it to account for the potential for some 4″ snows.  Here are your Winter Weather Alerts for the day…

Watches

WINTER STORM THREAT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT

  • An arctic front drops in from the northwest with a wave of low pressure working along it.
  • These arctic waves are usually underplayed by the models.
  • Another healthy snowfall is likely across the northern half of the state.
  • A few to several inches will be likely in this area.
  • Once again, we are left with the question on just how far south the snows can get.
  • I suspect it will wind up being close to what we see tonight and Friday.
  • This snow will be much drier and more powdery with the arctic air coming in.
  • Gusty winds will create some blowing and drifting Saturday night.
  • Roads will become snow covered again.
  • Bitterly cold air moves in Saturday evening and night.

I’ll keep my current thinking going until I see how the trend is out there today…

The forecast models continue to sink southward just a little bit with each run…

CANADIAN

GFS

EURO

BITTERLY COLD AIR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

  • This is a dangerously cold air mass, folks.
  • Wind chills can drop to -10 to -20 at times by Sunday morning.
  • Wind chills stay around zero or as low as -10 through the day into Sunday night and Monday morning.
  • Actual air temps will range from -5 to 5 above in several areas for Sunday lows and then again for Monday lows.
  • High temps Sunday may barely get into the low and middle teens for areas with snow on the ground.
  • Additional snow showers and flurries will be noted during the first part of the day.

The forecast models are growing more emphatic on this brutal cold as we get closer. Check out the wind chill forecast from the EURO starting at 7pm Saturday and ending at 9am Sunday…

Actual low temps from the EURO look like this…

Updates will come your way throughout the day, so keep checking back. We will have full team coverage on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm today. I’ll also have a few updates on my Meteorologist Chris Bailey Facebook Page

Until then, here are your tracking tools for the day…

Watches

Make it a great Thursday and take care.