Good Saturday, everyone. The setup taking place out there this weekend into Christmas week is one that looks and feels more like March than for the most wonderful time of the year. This brings gusty winds, showers and mild temps before the pattern goes back to winter.
Winds are cranking from the southwest out there today and that’s a mild flow with temps in the 50s. A weak cold front drops in here tonight with an increase in clouds and this brings seasonably cold temps for Sunday.
Wind chills are about what we would expect for this time of year from Sunday morning through Monday morning. This animation takes us through that time period…
That chill moves away on Monday as milder air pushes in from the southwest. This milder air brings some showers along for the ride, especially as a couple of systems pass us by to the north and northeast. You can see these showers on this animation going from Monday through Christmas Day…
Temps are very mild around here for Christmas Day and hit the 60s in all likelihood. Record warmth will be engulfing the Plains States. 80 there?
From there, we watch a trough digging into the eastern half of the country. The models have been hinting at this for a few days now with several models now showing it in some form or fashion. The Canadian Family really like this trough right now…
Canadian next weekend…
That’s some Barney coming back…
The Parallel Canadian is even more pronounced…
The change on the EURO Weeklies starts to kick in during the first week of January with a pattern that is trying to look like the one we had in early December. Notice how the lower heights in northwestern Canada and Alaska try to hook up with lowering heights in the eastern US…
The 30 day temperatures in January is heading toward a similar look we saw in advance of the early December cold…
Cold shots from Alaska and the Yukon kept diving into the country from northwest to southeast from Thanksgiving week into the middle of December. The above map is trying to set up something similar.
It’s also showing the snowfall potential ramping back up…
For fun, the single run of the EURO Weeklies show January going into the tank for the entire country…
Again, that’s just one run that shows wild run to run swings. The Euro Weeklies are the average of 101 different members.
I’ll throw you another update later today. Have a great day and take care.
Thanks Chris. ” MJO frequency is 6 weeks, therefore the next MJO – driven stratospheric warming event is around February first, 2026. ” Then it will get Cold / frigid again. I hope we have ENSO / neutral by then, so we may have a decent shot at an organized Snowstorm ?