Good Monday, everyone. Old Man Winter is about to do some flexing this week and this is likely the beginning of a rather harsh winter pattern for our region. We have two main systems of interest in the coming days with.

Our week starts out calm enough with some sun out there today. Frigid morning temps rebound into the 40s for most of the state.

As mentioned, we have two important systems to track this week to keep it all straight, let’s break each of them down individually.

SYSTEM #1

  • The impact time from this is Wednesday and Thursday.
  • This is the lighter of the two systems.
  • An upper-level system drops in here from the northwest.
  • This has a band of rain right along and ahead of it early Wednesday. That changes to light snow as cold air crashes in behind it later in the day.
  • This looks to be a fairly progressive system because there’s so much energy coming in behind it.
  • Frigid north-northwest winds will come across the warmer than normal waters of the Great Lakes and pick up moisture. The flow will bring lake effect snow showers and flurries all the way into our region Wednesday night and Thursday.
  • Light accumulations are a good bet with this system, especially across central and eastern Kentucky.
  • Arctic air pours in Wednesday night and Thursday. Highs Thursday are low and mid 20s with wind chills in the single digits and low teens.

The forecast models are all in decent agreement with one another. The future radar from the NAM only goes through 8am Thursday, but it gives us a good look at the rain to light snow ahead of the Lake Michigan snow shower connection.

This animation runs from 7am Wednesday to 7am Thursday…

The latest GFS has some in a tad weaker with the setup…

So has the EURO…

SYSTEM #2

  • The impact time from this is late Friday through Monday-ish.
  • This will actually be a series of systems dropping in from the northwest during this time period.
  • We will see a big dip in the jet stream taking up residence in our region. Pieces of energy will be spinning through here like spokes on a bicycle wheel.
  • Each of these spokes of energy will produce areas of snow and light snow.
  • Decent accumulations are a good bet, especially if one of these spokes can dig into something a little stronger.
  • With very cold air in place, snows will have a fluff factor to them.
  • Speaking of very cold… Single digit low temps will be possible by Sunday and Monday.
  • Wind chills can go below zero during this time.

The Canadian Model has been the one model showing most of these as it never bought into the big storm systems the GFS and EURO had at times with the first system. It was also the one showing a series of snow systems dropping in from the northwest starting this Friday.

The current Canadian continues that trend but it’s now bringing some bitterly cold air with it all. This animation goes from Friday through Monday…

The EURO is now going down that same road and even brings another light snow system behind all that on Tuesday…

The GFS is now showing the progressive bias of the model as it’s spinning everything through too quickly and jumping on the northern stream energy…

Again, the precipitation type algorithm is jacked up on some of these forecast models.

The pattern next week has a couple more systems of interest ahead of what’s likely to be another surge of arctic air. If you’re a snow lover, the GFS Ensembles have a nice look for the next few weeks…

 

The Canadian Ensembles aren’t as enthusiastic…

Looking longer range, the EURO Weeklies continue to ramp up the snow chances through the next month and change…

Updates come your way later today. I’ll also have a few updates on my Meteorologist Chris Bailey Facebook Page , Make it a magnificent Monday and take care.