Good Wednesday afternoon.Here’s hoping these words find you having a wonderful day. I don’t tell you guys enough… But, I appreciate each and every one of you. Okay… enough of the sap. 🙂 Let’s talk a little bit about the weather.
The next few days are pretty straightforward… scattered showers and storms that will have a big impact on temps. Outside of any boomers… we’re around 80. With any clouds or drops… we are much cooler. Anyone sticking out a blanket temp forecast is asking for trouble. (Just look at today’s readings)
The weekend is where we find things getting interesting. I want to start by saying this is a fairly energetic setup, so you are going to see some wild model swings. We are asking them to correctly display the interaction between a fall cold front, upper level low and a tropical system. That’s an impossible task, so don’t latch on to any one model run of any specific model.
My thoughts are actually pretty close to what the GFS is now showing…
That said… the model is suffering from convective feedback, but I like the overall idea. What does that mean? Some initial thoughts…
– The cold front swings in here on Saturday and will tap some deep moisture streaming in from the Gulf. That alone will generate widespread rain and thunder.
– A lot depends on exactly what happens with the tropical system in the gulf. Does it develop and come northward? Does it meander around and then come out after the front passes?
– Regardless… tropical moisture is likely to be drawn northward into the state to produce heavy rainfall that likely lasts into Sunday.
– This is a setup that can really knock temps way down. The GFS shows low and mid 60s on Saturday and upper 50s to low 60s on Sunday for central and eastern Ky. Again… temps will be dependent on how much rain falls.
See you guys for the late night update. Take care.
Thanks for the update Chris, hope your week off TV is going great, can’t wait until that first snow threat and the blog fires up again after the boring weather months!
I don’t comment much but you can bet that I read your blog daily and rely on the forecasts, comments and radar. I am a wedding coordinator and in my line of work, weather is a BIG deal. So thankful for the daily email that keeps me on top of things. I have read this update now for years and it has been my daily read after my morning devotions. Thanks for all you do!
thanks for your hard work
Thank you Chris for all you do! I also seldom comment but your site is the first thing I check every morning. I keep my friends and family very weather informed thanks to you. Keep up the great work!
Enjoying the drier weather. Two weeks and no mowing in Lawrenceburg, KY. Still at 48 inches of rain for the year–could stay dry the rest of the year and still end above normal.