Good Thursday everyone. I don’t have a lot of time to go in depth about the weekend system… but I did want to give you guys some first call maps as a White Christmas is in Santa’s sleigh and ready to be delivered. 
Some quick hitting thoughts…
– A disturbance in the northern jet will dive in here Christmas Eve and Day with a nice swath of accumulating snows.
– This system will roll to our east by afternoon, but not before leaving 1″ to as much as 4″ of snow.
– A strong upper level low will then develop across the area from Late Christmas Day into Sunday and Monday. This will produce widespread snow showers and squalls that will put down additional accumulations. This will especially be true across the east and southeast.
– Arctic cold will move in along with the snow with highs this weekend only in the low and mid 20s. Gusty winds will make it feel even colder and may blow some of the powdery snow around.
I made two first call maps. One for snowfall through Christmas Day and the other with snow totals through Monday…
I will adjust the totals and placement with future updates later today into Friday. Have a great Thursday and take care.
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winner winner! chicken dinner!
my area is gonna get 6 inches + gonna be a great christmas.
2nd in the AP POLL!
3to5 is sweet for a white CHRIS-BMAS:)
I was first to comment………….I am ready for a white Christmas
OHHHH a white CHRISTMAS….CANNOT WAIT!!! Thanks Chris for all you do..MERRY CHRISTMAS!!!!
looks like a white Christmas for Kentucky : )
I think we can all appreciate that snowfall map, esp…for Christmas…:)
The snowfall map for Eve and Day should just be for Christmas Day ONLY for Eastern and Southeastern KY… Not suppose to start until close to midnight on Friday here.
Thanks for the update CB. Looking good for my area. I will take that 4-8 total any day!!
I kind of disappointed, I thought Santa was going to bring me a large white gift. I guess I was not a good boy this year. I knew I should of not got drunk last week and ran over my neighbors Santa Display.
The local met at wave 3 is going with Chris according to the blog 3-5″
If anybody can tell me what he’s showing for Pike County, I’d appreciate it. I’d like to see Christmas totals and through Monday totals if you don’t care. I really wish I could see these images at work.
i agree basicaly would up totaslsd thru monday in 3-5 range to 5-8 if it was me. so i say 4-8 by mondauy for my area.
LEGEND TY MAN. U THE BEST.
to my fellow bloggers, I LUV U AND WISH U ALL A MERRY XMAS AND HOPE U ALL REMEMBER ITS ABOUT SPENDING TIME WITH UR LOVED ONES AND NOT ABOUT PRESENTS.
SIGN ROLOCOASTER
4-8 by monday josh.
Merry Christmas To All.
May your Christmas be Safe, Sacred and Joyful!
Rolo I agree and would like to join you.Merry Christmas to Chris and all the blog.
I use to be the first to jump up and get all tore up if I didn’t get my snow I still love snow,but I know now what is important love each other.
I lost my Mom last year and My Dad a few years ago so I would like to share with you this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ief4MG9QHXY Hope you and Chris Don’t mind love you all.Merry Christmas.
hey CHRIS BAILEY u have to post christmas vacation christmas clip with unlce eddie
good stuff CRYSTAL, i lost my dad 6 years ago aug 31st to colon cancer. my mom still with me and i will be with her till i die. hope i die before her.
Nice snow map CB…
I see a general 2~3 inches statewide, and that would be awesome for Christmas eve/day…
You weather freaks in the SE KY gonna get all kinds of love from ole’ man winter!
A moment ago I took a look at the northern phase of the storm. I see the upper midwest down to near St. Louis are expecting higher amounts of snow. Could some expert on this blog give me an explanation on why does the nor. phase weakens when it moves through the commonwealth.
Crystal you are so right love one are the most important I lost my dad and sister I would give up all my snows for just one more day with them merry Christmas to Chris and his wonderful family and all our blog family……..
We have been good Vinny Lol j/k.I hope you get bunches of snow.If I remember right Lexington use to get all the big snows so what happened?
Thank you so much! I lost my mom to cancer on Christmas Eve when I had just turned 15 yrs. old.
Speak for yourself, Crystal. LoL! 😉
I lost my father to colon cancer on August 31, 1984. Also lost my uncle this year to esophageal cancer, August 29th. A white Christmas will sure brighten up my holiday a bit.
Lost my uncle on August 7th, 2000 he was electrocuted . while it’s been 10 yrs. My family and I still visit him each Christmas. It has never gotten easier. Thanks for posting this.
I like the looks of these maps, but we need to keep our fingers crossed. There’s still some variability in the QPF of the NAM and GFS.
On another note, let’s hope this storm hits because there are signs the pattern may be ready to break down just after the new year.
The GFS is hinting the -AO may break down and the signs of it rebuilding just aren’t there, yet. This would allow the Pacific to become a big player and allow la nina to possibly assert itself.
The 2000-2001 winter was much like this. Very cold in December and then ho-hum in January. Just a thought.
I love the CB’s map : )
I have had enough…enough that’s been on the lawn for a week or more now. You can have the rest.
Kathy, i took a look at your pics.. you do great work : )
12z euro much wetter than past euro runs, most of the state sees .25 qpf for 3 inches of snow.
When is all this supposed to start? I am supposed to drive from eastern Virginia to Lexington tomorrow afternoon/night…anybody have thoughts on late evening conditions in West Virginia mountains?
Afternoon, gang. Chris has made the first call map, I see….and it is about what I expected. Ground will be white, so it will be a white Christmas…YAY! Would love to see a bigger one, but I am just happy to see it snow for the holiday.
I too, want to take this opportunith to wish Chris, his family and all of the blog family a very Merry CHRISTmas! You guys are like family to me, and I am sure I will check in on Christmas Day to see who has got how much snow! It is like hearing what we all got for Chbristmas from “Santa Chris” 😉
Ha! Trying to type between working, and apparently forgot how to spell…..ah, you guys know what I meant, anyway… 😀
Thank You Rolo, You are one cool dude, I enjoy reading your posts daily. Hope you and your family have a safe and wonderful Christmas.
John H
I like the looks of these maps, but we need to keep our fingers crossed. There’s still some variability in the QPF of the NAM and GFS.
On another note, let’s hope this storm hits because there are signs the pattern may be ready to break down just after the new year.
The GFS is hinting the -AO may break down and the signs of it rebuilding just aren’t there, yet. This would allow the Pacific to become a big player and allow la nina to possibly assert itself.
The 2000-2001 winter was much like this. Very cold in December and then ho-hum in January. Just a thought.
JHON TY FOR KIND WORDS, guys i still think seky going get more than epected as of now, evening runs going be better for us.
ER IS TIM AND ANDY!! AMBER ALRT ISSUED
new NAM looking wetter.
Hey Rolo….That was so nice!The best gifts and blessings are not the ones we pay for but those that are given to us through love. Hope you and your family have a Merry Christmas and a blessed New Year. That goes for all the faithful on the blog!
also showing northern energy futher south with southern low further north, man would take much for phasing to happen if this keerps happening thru the nite with NAM, look like it trying to phase futher west inoto mizzoutri..!!!
i see WSW issuded for us late tonte.
Merry Christmas Rolo from a fellow Clay Countian and to everyone that participates on the blog and especially CB for all that he does for us weather lovers. Also I would like to Say that my niece Sam Roark’s single ” The Sound Of A Woman Saying Goodbye ” is quickly rising and is #51 on this weeks Nashville’s New Music Weekly Country Music Charts !!! Merry Christmas and Happy New Years !!!!!
new nam says WETTER,WETTER.
if next ewuro would shift west some!!!
hey robert, mom says hi u all went to school togther. listen SAM has a wonderful voice and good people around her including her producer. I hope ever one on blog will go to youtube and lidsten to her muisac.
Sounds like a good time! Haha!
I would like to take the time and wish each and every one of you guys a very merry Christmas. Even though I do not comment every day, I read the blog daily,several times a day as matter of fact, I enjoy reading everyone’s thoughts and comments on every storm system that rolls through our great state. I feel like even though I don’t know all of you personally, I have made a lot of new friends. So every one enjoy your Christmas, with your families and take care.Oh, and by the way, that goes for you too friendly weather dude CB!:)
Thanks Rolo and I really enjoy reading your post and appreciate your knowledge for weather forecasting and tell your Mom hello for me.
Rolo,
You’re the best. Thanks for making the blog so much fun! Merry Christmas!
?? 18z NAM Is drier than previous runs!!!
I only see 1-3″ across the state with the NAM
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_p48_054l.gif
Merry Christmas to you Chris, the best weather dude in the world, and to your family. Appreciate all the work you put into this blog.
Chris, I hope that we stay on the lighter side of your forecast, it shows that Floyd County could get hit really hard and Johnson County 2″ less, we have a lot of family traveling tomorrow and I know the Mountain Parkway can become dangerous in a short period of time. Have a Merry Christmas!
Some thoughts..
(*) 18z NAM was a disappointment, even though the 18z suite works off old data, the runs still have the ability to make a plausible forecast, therefore the QPF placement is sort of a big deal!
(*) The 18z GFS should give us a little more guidance as to if the NAM was a screw up or not. Even if the GFS agrees, 0z and 12z are what we want to really watch 😉
(*) In later runs, the big dip on the 500MB vort ht over the pacific has tried to cut back a little wich is interesting. This COULD have some sort of impact on how far/when the low cuts down toward the gulf
(*) I still think a good 3-6″ is plausible for most of EKY through Monday, 2-4″ for CKY.
(*) However it goes, I hope everyone has a merry Christmas!
***Make sure to join the convo at Kentucky Weather Chat aswell** http://ekywx.com/kychat.htm
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–
Robbie, as bad as I hate to say it, I hope you are right. We have missed nine days of school so far. I can’t ever remember missing so much before Christmas. i hope it breaks and we don’t miss another day this year!! Please don’t shoot me fellow teachers!
The models are trending drier and it looks very insignificant.
3 to 5 inches of snow is fine with me! Merry Christmas to everyone!
yup, the 6-10 day period should be above normal for a change then some near to slightly below normal temperatures for a little while.
Why aren’t there any winter wx advisories yet for the area? Just wondering…
For n.tn..from NWS in Nashville,tn..for bordering ky/tn counties
TNZ010-011-031>034-065-066-240400-
/O.NEW.KOHX.WS.A.0004.101225T0600Z-101226T1200Z/
CLAY-PICKETT-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…CELINA…BYRDSTOWN…GAINESBORO…
COOKEVILLE…LIVINGSTON…JAMESTOWN…SPARTA…CROSSVILLE
301 PM CST THU DEC 23 2010
…WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
* GEOGRAPHIC AREA: NORTHEAST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND PLATEAU.
* TIMING: FROM MIDNIGHT CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY
MORNING.
* ACCUMULATIONS:3 TO 4 INCHES…WITH LOCALLY 5 INCHES
There will be some issued overnight, don’t worry. I live in Louisville. But, I just got here in Livingston co. Illinois and they JUST issued WWA for 3-6″ of snow, locally heavier. It was posted less than an hour ago. It’s taking all the NWS mets a while to figure out this southern/northern stream. In their discussion up here, they were concerned it could be a higher amount than forecasted, and may have to upgrade to WSW. It’s funny, because up here they won’t post a WSW unless there is 7″ or more of snow forecasted. Anyway, you guys will be getting then soon enough, as they JUST did issue for here. Hope you all have a very white x-mas, as they already have 7″ on the ground here!! woo hoo!!
Thanks Chris!! I’m holding my breath!! The last time I remember a white Chistmas was my Dad’s last one with us. It snowed on Christmas eve morning that year. I think it was 1999. He loved the snow! I guess my being a snow lover too is a family trait from him!!!
Waiting to see what the Santa Chris has to say about the runs….as I said, even if it is an inch or two, it is STILL a white Christmas….have hope, children, have hope….
I see a bad moon risin, i see models DRUNK AS HELLLLLLLLL. I SEE the euro winning out,,,,,,,,, i see upslope raisin hellllll.
some of u got to just say hell with models, when we got the OLD SCHOOL in the day they be giving barly nothing we wake up to HAMMER TIMEW, IN 87WE GOT A BIG ONE, DIFFERENCE IS WE HAD NO PUTERS TO WATCH MODELS. IM SURE THE LAST MODELS SHOWED THE DURASTIC CHANGE.
6-8 INCHEDS AS OF NOW A SUPRISE AND WE GET MORE. ONLY SAD THINGS IS THIS SOUTHERN LOW IS HOW WE GO T the big daddys in past.
MERRY CHRISTMAS CHRIS BAILEY !!!!!
You are the Tops!! Merry Christmas to all our Bloggers too!!
I am waiting on the snow!
Beginning to believe that Kentucky will never get an old school snow storm : (
paducah issuintg advisories now.
OLD School storms are called that for a reason. I have been in KY since 1963, old school history during this 47 years.(Frankfort Area) Late 60’s 10in storm. 1977-78 15in. storm, 1994 20in storm, 1996 14in storm, 1998 20in. storm.
There you have it! 5 old schoolers in 47 years! They don’t happen that often!
ps 12inch plus qualifies for old school in my book 🙂 east ky my have had a few more during this period) Mountains help over that way!
rolo…your gonna have to lay off the eggnog man…lol…lol…
Didn’t Ky have “old school” snow storm in the 80’s…For some reason, I think so…maybe I’m incorrect. I’m thinking a april storm in 87 or 88…
If I remember correctly it was April 87
I’m not old enough to remember… but I’ve seen photos and I read a lot, love to read about weather.
Frankfort missed that one with only a couple inches, but you are right, some parts of east KY had 24in plus! Spring storm if I remember right, late march or early april wraparound storm.,
so what can the the myrtle beach area expect from this. my uncle just moved there from upstate new york to get away from snow! haha!!
1987 APRIL 26 INCHES IN CLAY COUNTY WHEN WE LWFT TO GO TO INDIANA TO PLAY mMARION CO their state chaps. thT was old school. ended up 30 inches ayt my place.
never drank rggnog in my life, have though had 4 sahots of jim bean and 2 of CROWN ROYAL.
Me too. I can remember when I was younger years ago, when our snow producer would come from down the gulf. It would develop over Texas, then it would hit Arkansas, western Ky, then usually all the way to eastern Ky. Now all we can get is lake effect snows, or wrap-around snows. Why cant we get snows to come up from the south anymore? Any one know?
GFS came west and stronger last run, might not mean much but it showing a stronger throw back moisture.
like i said earlier rolho some of us have to work
Love to have a snow like that.. just not in april, love a good one like that in Jan : )
Gotta love the NWS winter storm watches North and South of KY, Ohio/Tenn maybe they know something we dont. everyone have a very Merry Christmas and stay safe.
Rolo~ you have a very MERRY CHRISTMAS and when you make your ‘snocasts’?!- give us here in Nelson County, to the NW of ya there, a little ‘sno-luv 4cast”, too! You know I’ve been a part of this blog for several yrs. now, friends w/ you, Vinnie, WxMan, Char, Patty, etc….love ya’ll! 🙂 I know I’m not in Eastern KY., but gosh-darnit, I like snow and Chris B just as much as any of you! 🙂
I’ve not heard this one yet, but I will def check it out! I am ALWAYS UP for a Kentuckian, whether it be music, beauty, (the gal that just got “Miss World”!)or whatever!!! 🙂
I have some leftover fireworks…might have to go out and start an attack on the Pulaski County Snow Dome!!!
We had a thirty inch snow where I lived in Hazard at the end of March, 1993. That’s the first snow that big that I’d ever seen. It was a monster storm.
Merry Christmas to you Chris (and family), and to all the wonderful folks who make this blog such an great place!Thank you guys for making me smile every time winter rolls around. I am blessed to spend the holiday with my loved ones and hope all y’all are able to do the same. Hope you have sugarplum dreams tomorrow night…:)
Hope you have a very Merry Christmas 🙂
The March 93 storm was the weekend of the 13,14 and 15 I think. I know it started on Friday and ended on Sunday. Had over 30 inches in Lawrence County. The April snow in 97 was awesome I remeber it was near 80 degrees here and snowing in Cincy and a few hours later it started pouring the snow. It was the strangest thing ended up with near 2 feet in Lawrence COunty only to be gone as fast as it came.
SUPERSTORM93, Frankfort got 2in out of the edge of that, LEX 8. I remember well because the CATS hosted the SEC tourney that year. Lots of folks got stuck in LEX for a few days. My inlaws in Corbin had 20in+. also, I was very jealous!
Thank you. That made me smile. 🙂
:)Merry Christmas Rolo! 🙂
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