Good Thursday everyone and thanks for checking in with us. The Christmas Weekend Winter Storm THREAT is alive and well as the GFS, NAM and European models are trying to come in line with one another on the potential for several inches of snow this Christmas weekend. Now the models need to show some consistency and we can upgrade this thing. 
I said last night’s runs would be telling since they would be among the first to get a true sample of the energy out west. That sample is leading to the models getting some hard data to work with instead of guessing at the placement and strength of the various pieces to the puzzle.
We now see much more attention being focused on the northern short wave diving southeastward across the plains Thursday into Friday. That pulls moisture much farther north than what many of the models had been showing the past few days. This leads to widespread snows breaking out from west to east Christmas Eve into Christmas Day. Here is the GFS progression…
The model has gradually been showing deeper moisture making it into our region. The GFS Ensembles have been hitting the higher precip totals for several runs in a row now and the latest average continues to show widespread .25″ to .50″ of liquid with some areas in the east at .50″ or better…
I am going to show some snowfall maps… but I don’t want you guys to focus on the EXACT placement of the numbers. I am using these maps to illustrate the models believing that much of the region will pick up good accumulating snows with the potential for several inches if things work out just right. Here is the GFS through Sunday…
The latest NAM snowfall map only goes through Saturday night…
Again… focus on the bigger picture instead of trying to pinpoint how much snow those maps show for your backyard because that will change from run to run. The overall theme for both models is for more moisture to work in here leading to the potential for some good snows.
The European Model had been showing almost no precipitation across our part of the world. It is now singing a much different tune and would drop anywhere from a couple to several inches of snow from Christmas Eve through Sunday night.
Some points to ponder…
– Snow should break out west to east Christmas Eve and continue through Christmas Day. This should drop a moderate accumulation of snow with the potential for a few to several inches during this time frame.
– The upper level low will then go to work Christmas Night through Monday morning and add more snow to the Christmas totals. This is the snow that will fall into a VERY cold atmosphere leading to high snow to liquid ratios.
– I am confident Christmas will be white… it is just a question of how much snow will fall for the big day itself and during the weekend as a whole.
– That is something I wanted to tackle with a First Call Map tonight… but I will hold off until early this afternoon to do that so I can get a better handle on the placement of snowfall numbers.
I will have updates through the day so check back. Have a great Thursday and take care.
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Chris, those snow fall maps are goofy. Such a difference between the GFS and NAM. The NAM looks MUCH better snow-wise for my backyard. Love your blog and thanks for your hard work! Let’s bring this one home with a snow thumping statewide!
I like the trend chris! Hopefully the 6z and 12z runs today will continue with the trend. Glad I stayed up to hear that there is still hope for a white Christmas!
wait for the 12z runs tomorrow. Thanks chris. Do you think there will be school on 1/3/11. (lol)
Wondering if Jan. will warm up?
yippy!!! snow!
I am going to hold back my enthusiasm until all models are in a general agreement. But I am slightly optimistic.
Thanks for the update Chris, and I really am liking the sound of this storm. I hope the models continue to come back to us..I am on here several times a day, but rarely have a chance to post, so I will take this time to wish you and your family a Merry Christmas….
I am still not buying into the models. Why does TWC still have the low way down in the gulf and have us out of the snow if the models are predicting this kind of stuff. Oh well….guess we’ll see more with the next update.
Chris, I just wanted to take a moment and say thank you. Your wonderful site is the first thing I check in the morning and the last thing I check at night!
That is because TWC gets all of its analysis from meteorlogists at Comedy Central 🙂
Perhaps they get their information from Accuweather forecasters, one of whom posted the following accumulation map last night http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/strait/st…ow-forecast.asp
The gfs 6z run has the low down on the gulf. What the nam & gfs are forecasting is that the northern surge will be stronger than earlier anticipated. I guess what I am trying to say the low down south will not be a factor until it moves up the east coast.
Are the Wlimington and Louisville NWS offices even trying to make a coherent forecast? On the Franklin/Owen line, for instance, Wilimington says little to no snow for Owen County. Louisville says 2-3 inches for Franklin County.
I’m going to drive up there and watch the snow magically vanish as you cross the county line. (The sarcasm this morning is free!)
THE I AM NAM post ridico BAILEY.LUV IT!!!
now to morning update, the GFS run ar 430 has a MUCH WEAKER northern stream, has low to south in the panhandle. 6z nam much better and stronger for us.
the next runs this morning are HUGE, we need the euro to wiggle west/nwe as I have thought it would.
but still looks like a general 4-6 inch snow as of now.
Almost 24 hours away and we still really DON’T know what’s going to happen. Wild!
the W CHANNEL is always at least a half day behind in forcast, that cause they go with a model run and they dont update their maps minute to minute.
I say this if the NAM hits this storm, we going get biggest snow of year.
the next runs could POP this MOTHER UP!!!! and the ROLOCOASTER will be putting chains on.
Rolo………………Please don’t get too excited now only to come back bummed out later if it doesn’t pan out. I don’t think I can take it. LOL
Rolo you must have taken a 5-Hour Energy!
What time does the next NAM run come out?
hey tim and andy tell ur wifes u like to come out and play awhile on the blog,,lollllll
great line from a movie WARRIORRRRS COME OUT AND PPLLLLAAAAYYYYYY..
sorry rolho but some of us have jobs 😛
5 in. would be great by the end of christmas day…snow.snow.snow.snow..it wont be long
1030…
I just saw a snowfall map that would cause us snow geese here in ky..flip our lids literally !!! it had places like atlanta Ga. 6-12″ and Ky..under 1″ !!! WHAT??…COME ON!!! all of South Carolina would be buried under 3-12″, North Carolina 3-18″, and Va. also…even 3-6″ to Knoxville,tn…!!!…I WANTED TO SHOOT THE MONITOR WITH MY SONS NEW RED RIDER BB GUN…LOL…
………….
talk about a sad thing, having to endure the media coverage of a foot of snow in Atlanta Ga. on Christmas day while we barely got a dusting….:(
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that would be a NIGHTMARE!!!!!!!!!
845 NAM 1030 GFS…Sorry bout that
The mighty BubbaG has been saying 2″ to 5″ with a gradient spread of west to east since Sunday- why doubt the mighty BubbaG?!? 😉 Heck, I doubt myself 🙂
CB is smart not posting snow totals yet, since STILL a moving target. Still sticking with my 2″ to 5″ 🙂
Well I remain Hmmm,”Optimistic” haha…because while the models have had snowfalls go from 6-8 to 2 inches..now back up to somehwere right on the line of 4-6, 8-10 I think…so it’s all good..I’m just waaaay too excited to think about what Chris’s first call for snowfall will be! and once that is out…I have to make like 20 phone calls to let people know haha..
Disagree Tim…
If we can’t get the snow, I’d rather the deep south get it instead of the usual suspects up north…
Can you imagine how much fun those kids down south would have? lol
12z NAM rolling and looking good so far. I’ll drop another comment once it’s done running.
Whatever snow falls, I just hope the road crews don’t decide to take the Christmas holiday off. Need those guys out there clearing the roads just like any other snow storm.
I’m cool with your 2-5″
I’m sure they will do a fine job…
Lexington road crews have been awesome..! If any read this blog, a BIG THANX guys..!!
http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2010&model_mm=12&model_dd=23&model_init_hh=12&fhour=60¶meter=PCPIN&level=36&unit=HR&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false
That’s the 12z NAM 24 hour QPF during Christmas day… taken litteraly that would mean 1-3″s for most of the state with an area of 2-4″s in central KY using the old 10:1 rule.
BubbaG,
That’s really a nice improvement there… For years now, you’ve always been the 2-4″ guy, so 2-5″..? a little better.. 🙂
it dont look to impressive to me.. maybe some light snows 1-4″ type stuff here and there, the big stuff is gonna be in the SOUTH and EAST..imagine that…dare I say snowdome…yeah im on one of rolo’s rolocoasters this morning ..maybe its because i have’nt had a full pot of coffee yet…
……………
and then again its Christmas, maybe it will be an overachiever for someones backyard…
Have to agree. I grew up in Montgomery AL and if we got snow it was a big deal. Nevertheless I don’t live down there anymore, relocated to Woodford County. Thats where I want it to snow. Got my kids to think about. 🙂
Think we won’t know or have an accurate idea of reasonable snow fall projections until tonight after a few more consistent runs and think Chris is all over it! Seems like he is doing a great job managing expectations this year on theses storms and has not pulled the trigger too early but is so far ahead of the other local guys and galls that it is not even funny. Sorry…not meaning to criticize the locals but come on! Several do not even update there flipping blogs on a daily basis. Why bother have one? Okay sorry…will get off my soap box now!
Winter Warlock
PS…I have nothing left to give. Just a few pieces of worthless corn that make reindeer fly!
I really would’nt be suprised to see winter storm watches go up for Ga, S.Carolina,N.Carolina..forecasters this morning seem to think these areas are gonna get THE BIG ONE!!..WOW..how things went from KY. getting the big one to the deep south getting it..all in less than a weeks time…lol..boy talk about ROLOCOASTER RIDE!!
actually that run would be overdone in terms of qpf once again the phasing is delayed more in line with the ECMWF.
I agree, Vinny. I have 2 neices in NC that would LOVE to see snow. To see it at Christmas would be that much sweeter for them! 🙂
Certainly no met. here but doesn that show the southern border counties getting the shaft this Christmas? The gfs & nam maps Chris posted early this morning took accumulating snows into TN.
..i’m soo confused
Yep, east KY has been getting a little extra snow love from the way these systems treat that area as a pivot point 😉 That and the higher elevation.
For central KY, it has not been a rolercoaster as far as big snow trends (that implies we have had some ups).
More like the Dropzone at Kings Island 😉
My last post went to moderation. What is that about? I know it’s Christmas but are we keeping a naughty and nice list? I have not had anything close to a naughty post! What’s the deal?
12Z GFS shows more of the same. I think we all pretty much understand that this is going to be a few inches of snow at the most now. But it will make for a pretty Christmas.
Living in Madison County, even a few inches of snow is a glorious thing. I do the happy dance to just one inch. lol
Chance for heavy amounts in eastern Kentucky from the last GFS, you got to keep in mind the higher snow ratios of 15:1 to 20:1. Given that this run places .50 qpf that can 4-8 is very attainable, with a emphasizes on the higher end for parts of eastern Kentucky, and lower end around I-75
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_p60_096m.gif
The air temp is 28 degrees here right now. During Saturday, NWS JKL is going with a high of 32. With temps. so close to freezing, there is no way the snow ratios will be that high. The 10:1 rule will work good for this storm.
For the intial start time, but if you pay attention based on the last GFS the air gets cold really fast, the only time we are near the freezing line is at onset, given this is a prolonged event over a few days, the majority will fall at a higher ratio. That is per about 5 different mets.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_p48_060s.gif
This would be a little more accurate for this storm.
Tom if I’m not mistaken I followed you on the last few storms and did well….hoping for the same this time 🙂
Vinny, I agree here : )
Are those the same mets. that are keeping their forecast near freezing until Sunday morning? Because by then…the deep moisture is gone and we are left with only snow showers.
Relax wxman, this is all based on one run of the GFS. This was discussed with Jim from WYMT last night on Kentucky weather chat, plus a few others have stated the same reasoning. The initial precipitation is set to arrive late Saturday night so Sunday morning would still be considered initial onset. But the event will be a prolonged event, go back and view the GFS in its entirety and you will see. As Jim stated, the closer the low to us the wetter the snow, the further away the fluffier it will be. The low is in the gulf, Please see timing.
The moisture moves in late tomorrow night/ early Sunday morning for East Kentucky, so yes.
Consider me officially depressed. To the north and to the south are good snows. KY mainly gets light amounts in latest model runs. Oh well, things could change again but we’re getting to 24 hours before this thing “hits”.
Patience children, Patience! 😉 I have refused to let myself get excited about the possibility of a white Christmas, just in case….but, if Chris says so (as he did this morning) whether its a BIG or little snow, its still a whtie Christmas. Just waiting now to see the latest update, and get a better idea of where we are.
Agreed…..we in the western part of the state are snow deprived so far this year…..would gladly welcome an inch of snow……..but am rather scared that it might now pan out…at least over here around the owensboro area! Won’t believe it until I see it…..would make a wonderful christmas for us.
Agreed…..would LOVE a white christmas…..seems like it has been quite a few years for us here in the owensboro area since we have had one. The thought of having any snow thrills me but for it to fall during the holiday is almost too much to hope for.
Winter Warlock (love the name), posts aren’t put in moderation because of being naughty.
I’ve found that if I type too much and do not space after so many words
I get put in moderation. You are still a good guy! 🙂
I would suspect that Chris will be updating a bit after 1, based on his usual pattern…don’t know if he is on air right now or not, but, that is usually how it goes. Going to withhold any emotion until I see what his thoughts are….
Yeah, I suspect you are right..this afternoon will be an update..but I just have a gut feeling he’s not going to do the first call this late this evening..
So far here in Morehead, it’s still looking like a really nice snowfall..I still have about 2 1/2 to 3 inches on the ground…either way it’s gonna be a white Christmas up here..it’s just always nice to snow falling during that time..I’m off to shop..haven’t purchased the first gift yet..talk about waiting till the last minute! haha.
oh and I also went into moderation earlier haha..but I’m glad he’s watching it…this year there were some “new” folks that got here, just seemed to be nothing but mean and nasty! I don’t get it.. Chris does an awesome job and all of you guys are so up on the weather and informative..we don’t need people coming in here and making trouble..enuff said? LOL..okay…shew gotta go shop..I hate shopping.
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