Good Monday and welcome to what fall is supposed to feel like. The warm and muggy pattern of the past several days got us into a lot of trouble over the weekend. Record breaking rainfall, severe storms and a wild temperature ride have been replaced by a chill in the air.

We have a huge pool of cold air working across the Ohio Valley today. This will likely produce some clouds as the day wears on and I can’t rule out isolated showers. Winds will be gusty and highs will be in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Temps tonight will bottom out around 40. Some upper 30s will be very possible if skies totally clear and winds calm down. Highs Tuesday will be in the 60s under partly sunny skies.

We are going to have to keep a close eye on a storm system developing along the east coast by the middle of the week. The GFS is finally coming around to showing what other models have been showing… this system trying to throw clouds and showers our way by Wednesday…

GFSThe European shows a a stronger storm lasting longer into the week…

Euro

That is not a warm look this week and it’s one that can turn downright damp and cool if that thing spins just a tad farther west.

The European Model shows an unsettled look this weekend…

Euro 2There is also a growing signal for a hefty storm to form early next week and work across the Ohio Valley…

Euro 3I’ve really been looking at this pattern and some interesting analog years are popping up as we head through the rest of fall and into winter. I shared one of those years on twitter over the weekend. 1962 has been on my radar for a while.. Let’s see if it holds as we go through the rest of October.

Have  a great Monday and take care.