Good Wednesday, weather friends. Remember all those warm and gorgeous fall days we had for most of September and early October? Stick a fork in them, they’re done. We are heading into a chilly pattern that turns colder as the days wear on. To be honest… the overall pattern is looking a lot like one we would see in winter.
A cold front continues to cross the state today and is producing a few showers. These are showers and it’s not going to rain the entire day. Here’s regional radar…
Temps ahead of the front hit the 60s and then drop into the upper 50s to near 60 as the front swings through. I still expect a wave of low pressure to develop along the front by Thursday. That will bring a quick hitting band of showers to central and eastern Kentucky. Highs should stay in the upper 50s. Lows by Friday morning may hit the mid and high 30s for some. Patchy frost?
Another cold front approaches by Saturday morning…
That unleashes another shot of chill for the weekend….
The setup for the middle and end of next week should turn even colder as a mega trough digs in across the eastern part of the country. This can produce some wild weather for a lot of folks…
The GFS spits out a list of the “best matches” to the overall pattern. It looks back at past years that had similar setups around the same time of year. The latest list has some heavy hitters showing up and you can see those on the bottom right of the map. Check out how the top 5 following winters turned out…
2002/03 actually had much more snow than that, but there was no one to actually measure it. Moral of the story… if you’re a cold and snow fan, you have to love how things are progressing as we head toward November!
Have a great day and take care.
I love it Chris. Bring it on!!! Hope it is an epic winter. As long as the power stays on of course..
I remember these winters, 76 and 77 were very cold and snowy.I remember wrecking my car on slick roads and ending up at the hospital. Been afraid to drive in snow ever since. But I love snow, I just stay home when the roads are covered.
I wasn’t born, but I’ve read how much of the country had extreme winters in both 1976-77 (including snow in Miami FL of all places) and 1977-78 (records smashed from Boston to Louisville to Dallas).
Nashville had 25 inches in 1976-77 and 28 inches in 1977-78. Since then, only 1995-96 has come close, so Nashville may be long overdue a big winter.
Does anyone remember which year it snowed on Court Day weekend? Wasn’t it 2003?
I remember it snowing during court days,but it was earlier than that.
Wait a sec…I’m confused. What did CB mean by: “2002/03 actually had much more snow than that, but there was no one to actually measure it.”
Either way, I’m super stoked about the pattern change. Mother Nature better say ‘no’ to any flirtatious manuevers by Indian Summer. He’s had his fun. Time to take a hike and let the colors really take off…
Cameron,
Couldn’t agree with you more about ‘bring on autumn’. Even with a mild summer, I am ready for the cool, crisp days and scents of firewood wafting through the air at night. Better get ready to crack out Gordon Lightfoot’s ‘Song for a Winter’s Night.’ One of the great holiday songs.
Was there a goverment shut down then ? 😉
What did CB mean by: “2002/03 actually had much more snow than that, but there was no one to actually measure it.”
By then, a lot of NWS stations had been closed (including Lexington KY, Evansville IN, Knoxville TN, etc). For example, staffed offices at Cincinnati, Dayton and Columbus were closed and replaced by the NWS Wilmington Ohio office. Lexington and other closed stations received automated (unstaffed) measuring devices instead. This may be what CB meant.
23.7″ in 2009-2010? Where was that measured? In my part of Madison county we have never had more than perhaps 8″ in any winter in the last 10 years.
It Would be lexington, his numbers are accurate. Shows how the KY river stops everything from hitting Richmond lol.
It must. It is crazy how we have never had more than 8 inches in any winter I have lived here. (Nearly 10 years)
Guessing that elevation may be another factor. I just looked up that the Lexington airport is virtually at a 1000 ft above sea level. If you are relatively close to the KY river valley, you may be somewhat lower than 1000 ft and thus less snow.
“Let the WILD rumpus begin!”
I feel like far, far western KY doesn’t really fit in with the rest of KY, when it comes to weather forecasts. We are forecast for sunny and near 70 for the next several days after today.
Temps in the 50s and 60s, that does actually sound about how KY winters turn out.
We don’t need the pattern to look like winter in the fall, this needs to happen in December/January time frame. To early only hurts our chances for this pattern to hold during the winter time!
True! Things will always “even out.” Below average fall, above average winter (obviously not all the time)
And this is the saddest front in terms of rain
Not to mention that the 10+ degree temp drop from yesterday, and with the rise to the dew point and humidity, it’s incredibly uncomfortable outside by comparison. “Cooler” today, but you’d be hard pressed to feel it.
Agree, even though temps have dropped it feels sticky outside, ready for that dry cool air myself!
Glad I live in Northern KY (Burlington-Florence area)! In 08′-09′ we had around 40″ that year.
Very often you can drive from snow cover to patchy around Dry Ridge to bare ground by the time you reach Georgetown. Our average is around 23-24″ per year.
Kris……..
Don’t remind us 🙂
The biggest snow I have personally experienced was while growing up in east Tennessee during the infamous March 1993 Superstorm. Officially well over a foot, but the blizzard conditions blew the snow into much larger drifts. An absolutely wild event. Those incredible childhood memories will remain with me the rest of my life.
However, I have not experienced anything more than about four inches at any one time since 1993. That suits this warm weather person just fine ;). Just an occasional light snow then back to warm wx.
I’ve been to places like Michigan and the higher elevations of Tennessee that had little or no new snow during my visit but already had over a foot on the ground.