Good Thursday, folks. The headline probably got your attention, and it should because it’s valid. We have a pattern ahead of us that looks a lot like winter and that begs the question… will it produce some flakes of snow before the month is over? It’s certainly a possibility and one that’s now worth discussing.
Let’s start with what we have out there today… chilly showers. This action zooms through here quickly today with the greatest concentration in the central and east. Here’s regional radar…
Highs today will likely stay in the 50s for much of the area. Lows by Friday morning may drop into the upper 30s for a few spots. The rest of Friday looks good with temps in the low and mid 60s with plenty of sunshine.
Another cold front arrives Saturday morning and will deliver some gusty showers to the region…
That will deliver another shot of chill with highs in the mid and upper 50s Saturday. Lows by Sunday and Monday mornings will drop into the 30s. That could give us a touch of frost.
The fun pattern begins with the next system that arrives by Wednesday. This dives in from the north and tries to strengthen into a big storm to our east…
That looks a whole lot like something that happens in December or January. Check out the amount of cold air crashing in behind it…
Sub freezing temps will be likely for the end of next week. That northwesterly wind flow is very strong and may produce some lake effect rain and snow showers across the Ohio Valley into Kentucky.
The European Model is very similar with the threat of flakes…
This is a very impressive pattern and is super cold for this time of year. The European Model 850 mb temp 5 day average for October 22-26 is absurd…
I’m also honing in on another huge blast of cold for the final days of the month into the first week of November. That could be even colder than what you see above.
Here’s the bottom line… This is a pattern that has a good chance to produce our first snowflakes of the season by the first week of November, if not sooner.
Have a great day and take care.
Snow for Halloween!!! That would be great.
Good. I’ve enjoyed our very warm October up to this point. 54 right now in Lawrenceburg (at 6:15 A.M.) and from what it looks like it won’t get much warmer today.
The average dates for the first frost and freeze in Lexington are:
Frost (36 degrees): October 14
Freeze (32 degrees): October 27
Hard Freeze (28 degrees): November 6
Reading the archive of last October. There was snow in eastern Kentucky before Halloween last year. Our district actually cancelled school one day because of the unusual October snowstorm. You have to admit, weather in Kentucky is not boring. Looking forward to what the coming winter might bring our way. Really appreciate the information Chris provides.
Depends in which part of the state you live in. I am only talking for the snow lovers.
Chris,Im not knocking you at all, I just know how kentucky weather is, especially during the colder months, so i’m adopting some words to live by this year….. I’ll believe it when I see it.
Festus….I am right with you!!! but you have to admit we are two years overdue for a crazy winter. Some may say three or four.
dang it! I was really enjoying my AC being off and nothing running for the last week or so. I hate to have to kick on my heat this early. sounds like we are going to have to get the wood stove going sooner than expected.
Accuweather’s 2013-14 winter forecast has already predicted a late-start below-normal snowfall year for KY as usual. Don’t get your hopes up too high…
And they called for a very cold and snowy winter across the eastern part of the country the past two years. How did those work for them? 😉
Yea Chris they are giving severe weather for us and below normal snowfall they are usely wrong hope they are this year…
For the severe weather, they don’t actually mean severe thunderstorms… they mean severe winter storms and severe ice storms… they released a statement about it because everyone thought they meant like tornadoes and hail storms. So, there winter predictions are not that far off compared to everyone elses.
Oh micheal I hope you are right when I see severe weather scares me to death first thing I think tornadoes….
Severe weather in the form of snowstorms and ice I hope
So did some others LOL
October 1993 snowstorm on Halloween! Lets hope this winter repeats that year, 1994 EPIC January blizzard 🙂
Wait……………so oct 93 had snow in lexington, followed by the 94 winter?? that would be GREAT. 94 was a GREAT winter here
Also, wasn’t there a REALLY bad ice storm here in the mid-90s? I’m not talking about the early 2000s once, but I remember when I first moved here in 96, someone telling me about it….it could have possibly been 94. Not sure
March 94 had a pretty bad ice storm if I remember correctly, over all winter of 94 was pretty harsh start to Finish!
Also 4 inches of snow fell in Frankfort on Christmas 1993!
Yep, Mark…right after the Jan.’94 snowstorm, we had an ice storm (at least here in Nelson Co.?!) around the first week or so of March. Remember it well, as that is when we lost all power, cable TV, etc…for about a week or so.
Bowling Green KY, Nashville, Memphis TN were all very hard hit by the 1994 ice storm. Some places in Mississippi were without power (and heat in many cases) for weeks.
Wow! Just blow it over to Richmond, Virginia when you’re finished with the snow! A few flakes will be nice. It is still Autumn afterall.
Still rather warm here in the corner 66 degrees
Sounds great Chris.Thanks for all you do.Andy Rose it is still 63 over in Pikeville,But dreary off and on showers.
I would like to have FALL before we have WINTER! lol 🙂
ME TOO!
WOO HOO, Chris! I think this is the earliest I have ever heard you mention the “S” word! (Probably not, but it seems like it). 😉 Of course, last year, we didn’t see enough snow here to even get excited about. Lets hope this winter gives us at least one GOOD snow. Right now, I would be happy to see some of the beautiful fall colors…Seems like the leaves that are still on the trees are awfully slow to turn.
Thanks, Chris, for the update and for all you do. Have a great Thursday, everyone.
send some my way….im gonna be crying to see it snowing in ky…and not here…lol….
See, Chris, just the mention of the “S” word, and the blog blows up! Are we snow starved or what? 😉
Do we dare to start talk of the “DOME” Falling…..Can’t remember a time in my life that we had three straight below average snowfall totals and temps that did not crash down to the teens and below. In my eyes we are overdue for some cold and snow. Looking forward to this winter and FALL just got started.
and im even farther south now in east tn….i hope to see some snow down here as well
Good to hear from you Tim.
You should have been in east TN in Jan 2011. Lots of snow then ;).
Down to 45 at 9:48 P.M. in Lawrenceburg. Coolest for this fall season has been 41. The weather channel is forecasting 3 freezes in a row late next week. Will mowing season be done? I hope so!
Nashville TN is predicted to be in upper 30s by middle of next week, so patchy frost could be possible for us. Highs may not make it out of 50s.
I wanted to take the time to thank you, Chris, for your timely, and accurate, forecasts. Looks like we have a potential mess coming up later in the month. Thanks for the head’s up, my friend.
May the Lord bless and keep you and your loved ones.
Jim Grayson
Lexington