Severe Storms Threat Kicks Off Memorial Day Weekend

Good Friday, everyone. Our Memorial Day Weekend is kicking off with waves of heavy rain and strong storms rolling across Kentucky. There’s even the threat for a few severe storms this afternoon and evening with more storms over the weekend.

Here’s a breakdown of how today may play out:

Widespread rain and storms are rumbling northward across the state to start the day.
Warmer winds press in under this as low pressure spins in from the southwest.
This warmer air will bring some breaks in the rain, allowing for some instability to develop.
Spiraling bands of showers and storms with the low this afternoon and evening.
This is when the threat for a few severe storms develops, especially across central and eastern parts of the state.
Pockets of damaging winds will be noted and there’s enough shear available for a quick tornado or two to spin up.
Watch for areas of flash flooding today with many locations picking up 1″-3″ of rain with locally higher amounts.

The future radar from the HI RES NAM captures this system with an amination starting at 8am today and ending 8am Saturday…

In terms of the severe storms threat, here’s a look at the Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center…

The low-end tornado risk shows up…

As does the potential for areas of damaging winds…

Scattered storms will be noted again on Saturday, but we should have some warm breaks from time to time. Another wave of low pressure then moves in Sunday and Sunday night, bringing more showers and storms. Another round then arrives on Memorial Day and goes through Tuesday.

You can see all these waves of rain and storms on this GFS animation from Saturday morning through Tuesday…

I will be surprised if we aren’t dealing with additional high water concerns in the days ahead.

This may be something we see more than once into the early part of Summer as the EURO Weeklies keep the corridor of heaviest rains from our region into the deep south…